Does Hamas renounce power? It's not as simple as it sounds Experts weigh in on the complexities

The Hamas movement has sent a letter to the Palestine Liberation Organization, notifying of its readiness to transfer control of the Gaza Strip to the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) and the government committee, Sky News Arabia reported, citing sources. According to them, Hamas simultaneously set a condition that former Gaza officials must be provided with jobs in the new administration, and in case of dismissal, they should be guaranteed pension payments. It is noted that this decision was made by the radical organization under "heavy pressure" from Egypt after negotiations in Cairo.

Does this mean that from now on, Hamas leaders will no longer make decisions in any territorial unit? And is this capable of permanently preventing the threat of attacks on Israeli civilians by Hamas?

Well-known foreign analysts have agreed to share their assessment of the situation with Caliber.Az.

As Israeli political scientist, Professor Zeev Hanin of Bar-Ilan University, puts it, it seems that this public was seriously frightened by the statements of Donald Trump, the White House, and the State Department, which warned that if Hamas does not make concessions, hell would open up for them.

"What exactly represents hell here was clarified a few days ago by Donald Trump himself, who said he is simply giving Israel a carte blanche to do whatever it wants. And what it can do, I think, the Hamas terrorists perfectly understand.

The task now is to return the Israeli hostages, and then destroy Hamas's power. Note, however, that no one seems to be talking about physically eliminating them.

Views in the Arab world are also changing towards the idea that they would like to remove both the Palestinian issue in general and the topic of Hamas in particular from the agenda. As we understand, the process of resuming the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia is underway, along with the formation of a collective security system in the Middle East, a so-called Middle Eastern NATO under the auspices of the U.S.

Hamas leaders are not idiots and understand that if Iran is removed from the playing field — whether through isolation, an agreement with the United States, or a military strike, which is also not excluded — they must at least formally participate in this game.

In the countries of the Saudi bloc, as well as in some Western nations, there is still hope that, the day after this, a somewhat stable authority will emerge in the Gaza Strip (even under the auspices of the PNA). But they understand that Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas), the regime in Ramallah, Arafat’s successors, and the Palestine Liberation Organization, cannot really govern anything there. They can barely manage Ramallah.

It is expected that the PNA will serve as a formal leadership, while de facto, power in Gaza will belong to a technocratic government supported by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, possibly the European Union, the United States, and with certain involvement from Israel in the security sphere (possibly not just minimal, but quite substantial)," the professor outlined the situation.

So, he says, from Hamas’s perspective, the solution is simple — it’s the "Hezbollah model."

"That is, formally, they won’t be in the government, but in practice, they will remain as an organization, as some sort of militia. They will, of course, actively resist disarmament, while relying on the fact that all the people in Gaza, the hamulas (large patriarchal families, clans, as the locals call them), who for the last 20 years have essentially been integrated into the Hamas system, will still hold power. Therefore, Hamas members will be able to manage the situation in the sector from behind the scenes, formally not taking responsibility for the social and economic situation in the region, and de facto gradually bringing the entire governance structure under their control. Just as Hezbollah managed to do since the late 1980s in Lebanon.

Right now, it’s unclear what will remain of Hezbollah's power and influence, but Hamas will probably try this same scheme in Gaza. At least, that’s their intention. Whether they’ll be allowed to do so or not is a good question. It will depend on how the Americans, Saudis, and Israelis agree on the regime that will be in Gaza the day after," Hanin believes.

Adam Amilov, the President of the Israel-Azerbaijan International Association (AzIz) and Deputy Mayor of the Israeli city of Kiryat Yam, said in his turn that the Israeli government has repeatedly communicated at all levels that it is inappropriate to trust the PNA, as within their own autonomy they do not actively fight against Hamas and are very similar to Hamas in their policy towards Israel.

"None of the countries neighbouring us can be trusted, to my great regret. Not even the countries with which we have peace agreements, such as Egypt or Jordan. Everything in the Middle East is hanging by a thread: if a ruler or government changes, the attitude towards Israel will change as well.

True peace treaties are based not only on relationships between rulers but also between the peoples themselves. The people of Israel are ready to be friends with neighbouring Arab nations in every sense. But whether the neighbouring Arab nations are ready to be friends with us is a big question! And we need to explore the root causes of such relations," says Amilov.

Russian orientalist and Middle East expert Ruslan Suleymanov noted that, in his view, it is still too early to say that Hamas is leaving the Gaza Strip.

"At the moment, we only have some leaks in Arabic-language media. Hamas itself has not made any statements regarding the future of Gaza, apart from individual comments from some leaders of the movement saying that they are ready to share power with other Palestinian factions. But it's too early to talk about who will govern Gaza. The war is not over yet.

For now, we are expecting the transition from the first to the second stage of the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. And we still don't know whether hostilities will resume or if this fragile peace will hold. Hamas considers itself the victor. Hamas believes it has already won this war against Israel and is convinced that it has every right to represent not only the Palestinians in Gaza but all Palestinians across the territories," explained the orientalist.

As for the threat of attacks on Israeli civilians by Hamas, it will not disappear, he believes.

"As long as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict exists, these terrorist attacks, these assaults will continue. They can only end when the Palestinian issue is resolved. That is, when an independent Palestinian state is created and when Israel withdraws from the occupied Palestinian territories. Until then, Palestinians will continue resistance in one form or another, including resorting to terrorist methods," Suleymanov thinks.