EBRD: Azerbaijan’s inflation to fall, GDP growth to pick up in 2024

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts a slowdown in Azerbaijan's annual inflation rate in 2024, predicting it will decrease to 3.5% from 8.8% in 2023.

According to EBRD’s latest report, Azerbaijan's current account surplus is expected to reach 8.5% of GDP by the end of 2024, down from 9.9% in the previous year, Caliber.Az reports referring to bank’s statement.

The bank highlighted that in 2024, Azerbaijan’s GDP growth rate accelerated, while inflation slowed down. The non-oil sector has returned to a growth trajectory, driven by strong demand for natural gas.

“Inflation remains within the central bank’s target range,” the EBRD noted.

Looking ahead, the EBRD expects that energy exports and government investment will continue to support Azerbaijan’s GDP growth in the coming years.

“Our projections estimate real GDP growth in Azerbaijan at 3.8% in 2024, followed by 2.7% in 2025. These forecasts are highly sensitive to fluctuations in oil and gas prices, as well as geopolitical instability in the region,” the bank added.

In comparison, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Economy forecasts a 4.2% growth in GDP for 2024, with 3.5% growth expected in 2025. The Ministry also predicts annual inflation rates of 2.7% in 2024 and 4.6% in 2025.

In 2023, Azerbaijan’s economy grew by 1.1%, with the annual inflation rate at 8.8%.

By Aghakazim Guliyev