Economist: Türkiye emerges as Europe’s new security anchor As America Pulls Back, Russia Steps Up

The British magazine The Economist has published an analysis highlighting Türkiye’s expanding defence industry and its emerging role in bolstering European security.

The publication writes that, amid rising security challenges and insufficient arms production in Europe, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is positioning Türkiye as an indispensable partner for European defence. As the United States retreats and Russia’s threat escalates, Ankara’s strategic importance to Europe continues to grow.

“It has become clear once again,” Erdoğan declared on April 11, “that European security is unthinkable without Türkiye.” 

Despite Türkiye’s struggling economy, which saw only $24 billion spent on defence in 2024—just a quarter of Germany's spending—the country’s military capabilities remain formidable.

Türkiye’s arms industry has been expanding rapidly. Armoured vehicles, drones, warships, and small arms are being produced in large quantities, contributing significantly to Türkiye's growing influence. New projects, such as the Altay battle tank and Kaan stealth fighter jet, are expected to enter service by the end of the decade.

“Interest in doing business with Türkiye has perked up across Europe,” reports suggest, noting a recent joint venture between Turkish drone maker Baykar and Italian defence company Leonardo. Türkiye’s industrial base and large military force are becoming key assets in Europe’s security architecture.

One area where Türkiye's involvement is particularly sought after is in Ukraine. The country has offered to send troops as part of a peacekeeping force if a ceasefire is achieved, an offer bolstered by Türkiye’s experience in countering Russian influence in Syria and Libya. Turkish officials are particularly focused on the Black Sea, where they are keen to avoid a naval buildup by either Russia or NATO following the war in Ukraine. A Western diplomat stated, “They are determined to take the lead” in any maritime peace force.

For Türkiye, closer cooperation with Europe offers economic and strategic benefits. Turkish companies are eyeing a share of the EU’s anticipated $100 billion defence spending over the next four years, and the possibility of deploying peacekeepers in Ukraine could open up additional business opportunities. Erdoğan is also positioning Türkiye as a leading investor in Ukraine, suggesting that Turkish peacekeepers could facilitate Turkish contractors' access to reconstruction projects.

Despite these advantages, Türkiye’s relationship with NATO and the West has been complicated. Under Erdoğan’s leadership, Türkiye has often acted as a maverick within the alliance, blocking Finland and Sweden's NATO membership, vetoing defence plans for Poland and the Baltic, and clashing with the US over Kurdish insurgents in Syria. In Ukraine, Türkiye has pursued a balancing act, providing support to one side while also taking advantage of Western sanctions to enhance trade with Russia.

However, recent shifts in global politics have altered the dynamic. In the context of Donald Trump’s America and broader international changes, Türkiye now appears to be a more reliable ally compared to previous years.

As one observer noted, "Suddenly, compared with Donald Trump’s America, Türkiye comes off as a dependable ally."

By Aghakazim Guliyev