Georgia is on alert: what will visa-free regime, opening of air links with Russia bring? Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Starting from May 15, Moscow cancels the visa regime for citizens of Georgia by the decree of Russian President Vladimir Putin. He also issued another decree cancelling the ban on flights to Georgia.

There is no answer to the question in the text of Putin's decree, for what reason the Kremlin has decided to cancel visas for citizens of Georgia.

At the same time, the Russian Foreign Ministry cancelled the recommendation to refrain from trips to Georgia. The Russian Ministry of Transport announced that Russian airlines will operate seven direct weekly flights from Moscow to Tbilisi and back.

The Georgian president called Putin's decisions a provocation and the abolition of the visa regime unacceptable in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine. Zurabishvili called for convening the Georgian Council to discuss the visa regime for Russians (it does not exist now). It is necessary to introduce three-month visas for those Russian citizens who come and stay in the country, she said.

However, Salome Zurabishvili does not reflect the position of the Georgian government. Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili, assessing Moscow's decision to abolish the visa regime and restore direct flights, said: "From the humanitarian point of view... any and all decisions that will facilitate life, movement and doing business for our citizens are certainly positive and welcome”.

The prime minister said that there are 1 million ethnic Georgians living in Russia, who have family members, relatives and friends here, and "it is very important to facilitate their movement, their relatives' arrival, etc... This is a positive fact and a positive decision.

According to him, in addition to the fact that the restoration of direct flights to Russia will remove "huge discomfort" and costs for citizens of Georgia in terms of travel, it is also an integral part of trade and economic relations, "one small component, a detail, not the main one”.

The reports caused a storm of indignation in the opposition. "Russia's decision to cancel visas is total hypocrisy and part of the hybrid war it's waging," says Gigi Tsereteli, a leader of the European Georgia party, commenting on the Kremlin's decision. According to him, "Russia should not abolish visas, but withdraw its troops and put an end to its occupation of Georgia”.

Levan Khabeishvili, chairman of the United National Movement (UNM), was no less harsh: "Putin actually declared Georgia a Russian province. Putin thanked Bidzina Ivanishvili for his help and announced a corresponding decision - he cancelled the visa regime and restored flights. It's the peak of cynicism when in parallel the Georgian people are oppressed every day, the occupation continues, the Russian army is on the territory of Georgia ...".

So what does this move of Moscow mean? What caused such a decision at this point in time? What effect is it all designed to have? After all, the Kremlin is aware of the political split of opinions that has been keeping Georgian society in tension for several years already. Or does Moscow see behind these decisions some benefits for Russia, within it?

Prominent foreign observers have agreed to answer these difficult questions for Caliber.az.

Sergei Zhavoronkov, co-chairman of the Russian political party Democratic Choice and board member of the Liberal Mission Foundation, believes that Putin's move is a step to support the current Georgian government, which is actually controlled by Bidzina Ivanishvili, just as the embargo on Georgian wine and mineral water was lifted soon after Saakashvili's defeat in the 2012 parliamentary elections.

"Perhaps what is meant here is both the lifting of sanctions and the prospect of Georgia being used as a transit point for sanctioned imports to Russia. Of course, there are not a million Georgians in Russia, at best 100,000, given that Russia has been extremely reluctant to give them visas. But tourism is one of the pillars of Georgia's economy, and the possibility of direct flights is important.

I am not a sympathizer of Ivanishvili, but the opposition behaves strangely. We should make a distinction between the interests of Putin, his entourage, the Russian budget and the interests of ordinary citizens of Georgia and Russia. The UNM is at the centre of the Georgian opposition, and they should remember that Saakashvili responded to Putin's sanctions by lifting visas for Russians and welcoming investment by Russian business in Georgia - simply because it is beneficial to Georgia itself.

What is the harm of civilian air service, especially since it was not Georgia that cancelled it, but Putin, and now he actually admits his mistake? What is the harm from the Russian relocatees who come not to ask for benefits, but with money, have income outside of Georgia and at the same time these relocates are anti-Putin (they are not a ‘fifth column’)? Or is it the principle now that ‘if Yevtushenko is against collective farms, then I'm for it?’ Yes, Ivanishvili will obviously benefit politically from Putin's decision, but this is not a reason to engage in total denial," says Zhavoronkov.

Kakha Gogolashvili, a political scientist and director of the Center for European Studies of the Rondeli Foundation (GFSIS), noted that in conditions when Moscow finds itself in economic, transport and political isolation, opening transport and deepening humanitarian and economic relations with Georgia (although small, but geopolitically significant country) is of interest for Russia.

"Russia is interested in torpedoing Georgia's move to the EU and with this decision wants to create additional barriers, knowing that the EU and the US will not like this new impulse for rapprochement between Tbilisi and Moscow.

The resumption of flights and a visa-free regime plays the role of soft power. Moscow is trying to tie as many Georgian citizens as possible to itself.

The flights will also make it easier for Russian business to enter Georgia and strengthen the influence of Russian capital in our country," said the Rondeli Foundation representative.

Shota Apkhaidze, political analyst and director of the Caucasus Center for Islamic Studies, assesses these innovations on Russia's part as positive.

"This will have a positive impact on the economic and political future of Georgia because we have a long history with Russia. And despite the fact that it had a lot of bad things, it is still more positive. Quite a large Georgian diaspora lives in Russia. Let me point out that there are not 1 million ethnic Georgians living in Russia. Their maximum number is 255 thousand. Citizens of Georgia of other nationalities (Armenians, Azerbaijani) are in the order of 150 thousand. Of course, these people need a visa-free regime. On the other hand, there are a lot of Russians in Georgia now, too," says the expert.

As for politics, everything should be decided through diplomacy, war will not bring anything good, says Apkhaidze.

“The words of the President of Georgia are political speculations; she inadequately assesses the situation.

And no matter how much the president and Western “partners” condemn these steps, calling them preparations for the occupation of Georgia, this is absolutely implausible. In fact, Tbilisi unilaterally abolished visas for Russian citizens a long time ago, so Russia should have done the same. After all, many Georgians are engaged in business, creativity, cultural activities, and trade in Russia. They are not involved in politics and just want normal relations with the neighbouring country, just like many Russians.

The Georgian opposition is a destructive sect, constantly speculating on something. I wonder why Saakashvili lifted visa restrictions for Russian citizens and welcomed Russian investments into the country after 2008. There is a clear double standard here.

I think that now the Kremlin needs good relations with Georgia because it has many enemies and very few allies. If the process of normalization of relations will continue, eventually we will be able to find some approaches and return our lost conflict territories. Putin, too, is probably thinking about somehow restoring relations with Georgia," Apkhaidze concluded.