Georgian elections: Nation’s future, foreign policy direction at stake Expert opinions

For the upcoming parliamentary elections, the ruling party Georgian Dream will be led by its founder and honorary chairman, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili. Previously, the party's list was headed by Kakhaber Kaladze (now the mayor of Tbilisi) in 2012, former Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili in 2016, and former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia in 2020.

Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has unveiled the top twenty candidates on the Georgian Dream election list. This lineup includes current members of parliament, Olympic champions, representatives from the splinter group People's Power, and several new faces within the party.

Bidzina Ivanishvili – Billionaire and founder of the party
Irakli Kobakhidze – Prime Minister of Georgia
Irakli Garibashvili – Chairman of Georgian Dream
Shalva Papuashvili – Speaker of Parliament
Mamuka Mdinaradze – Head of the Georgian Dream parliamentary faction
Thea Tsulukiani – Minister of Culture and Sports
Lasha Talakhadze – Weightlifter and three-time Olympic champion
Vakhtang Turnava – New face in the ruling party
Maka Bochorishvili – Member of Parliament
Geno Petriashvili – Wrestler and Olympic champion
Sozar Subari – Leader of People's Power
Mariam Kvirivishvili – Member of Parliament
Anri Okhanashvili – Member of Parliament
Nikoloz Samkharadze – Member of Parliament
Eka Chichinadze – New face in the ruling party
Shota Berikashvili – Businessman
Levan Makhashvili – New face in the ruling party
Mikheil Kavelashvili – Former footballer and member of People's Power
Giorgi Gabunia – New face in the ruling party
Lika Shartava – Psychologist and new face in the ruling party

On October 26, parliamentary elections in Georgia will be held entirely based on a proportional system, meaning they will be conducted through party lists for the first time.

Clearly, these elections will be decisive for Georgia, as they will determine the future of Tbilisi's foreign policy course. It’s interesting to consider why Ivanishvili decided to personally participate in the race for a parliamentary seat. Could this indicate that, if "Georgian Dream" wins, he intends to return to the position of Prime Minister of Georgia?

Georgian experts shared their thoughts on this matter at the request of Caliber.Az.

Shota Apkhaidze, a political scientist, director of the Caucasus Center for Islamic Studies, and expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, says these elections are indeed crucial, as their outcome will affect the country’s future and its foreign policy direction.

“If Georgian Dream does not win these parliamentary elections, it will lead to the revival of Saakashvili’s party. The country will descend into chaos, repressions, and in short, horrors will ensue.

Bidzina Ivanishvili has indeed entered the list of candidates for parliament from his party, but I don't think this move is solely about gaining parliamentary immunity. Ivanishvili already has considerable protection through his business, connections, and influence, so his parliamentary status is not crucial for his personal security. Even if any forces wanted to target him, he is already under international sanctions, which means he could potentially be arrested,” the researcher reminded.

The researcher believes this move is more about Ivanishvili's personal return to Georgian politics. His presence brings significant authority, influence, and a certain trend.

“When he stepped away from politics, he believed his successors and appointees could handle the work he had been doing. However, the political situation has changed, and Georgian Dream no longer enjoys the same popularity it did in 2012. The ruling party has not fulfilled some of its promises, and there are significant social and economic issues in the country, leading to declining support for Georgian Dream. To boost the party's rating, Ivanishvili decided to return to politics and try to win the upcoming elections. I have no doubt that they will secure a majority of the votes, but to ensure this outcome, he decided to personally re-enter the fray. It is also possible that Ivanishvili might become Prime Minister of Georgia again after the elections,” said Apkhaidze.

Political scientist Archil Sikharulidze, founder of the SIKHA Foundation, believes that the upcoming elections will not determine Georgia's foreign policy direction, calling such claims an exaggeration.

“What is truly at stake is whether a new force will emerge in the country with fresh proposals. It is generally expected that Georgian Dream will win a majority in the new parliament. Bidzina Ivanishvili’s inclusion in the party list isn’t about gaining parliamentary immunity (which he already has), but rather a response to being turned into a scapegoat by Western colleagues and the local opposition. Given that he’s already been blamed for everything, it makes sense for him to lead the list. Even if the current government were to lose (which is highly unlikely and not anticipated), he would still remain unaffected and untouchable, as there is no basis for any charges against him.

Ivanishvili also aims to conclude his political agenda, as he has been portrayed as the 'main villain' by Western overseers of Georgia and local opposition. By leading the list, he intends to decisively defeat the opposition, which is the expected outcome. All statistical data supports this. With or without a mandate, he remains untouchable,” said the head of the center.

Sikharulidze reiterated that labeling these elections as decisive is an exaggeration.

“It’s not about Bidzina Ivanishvili or the current government. This is a superficial analysis by our Western colleagues, who assume that if the opposition comes to power, it will radically change everything in today’s society. That won’t happen. Georgian Dream is deeply rooted in social processes and the majority vote. People see the world in more complex terms than just West, East, or Russia. Georgian Dream understands this well and leverages it effectively,” Sikharulidze concluded.