Georgian opposition still playing the "ballerina game" Expert insights

Georgia's third president, Mikheil Saakashvili, has urged his supporters to stop "playing ballerinas" and turn to more radical forms of protest to "save the country," reports News-Georgia.

The imprisoned president addressed his supporters during a hearing on his case involving illegal border crossing. He was connected via video link from the Vivamed clinic in Tbilisi, where he was transferred in May 2022 due to a deterioration in his health. Saakashvili had a sticker with a black mark on his chest—similar to those used by protesters against election falsification in Georgia.

"They are taking our country away. Either we continue to resist and reclaim our country, or we stop resisting and Georgia, as an independent country, will cease to exist... Right now, standing between us and our freedom, between us and our salvation, are 4,000 riot police and special forces. Aren’t there more of us? Therefore, these games of ballerinas must stop. We constantly say 'within the law.' Which law? The one that doesn’t exist? Which constitution? The one they’ve long stepped outside of?" Saakashvili stated.

The former president of the country described the Georgian Dream government as "self-proclaimed." He is convinced that, in reality, Georgian Dream lost the elections.

What is the current situation in Georgia regarding protests against the results of the parliamentary elections? How strong is the opposition's potential for protest? Does the opposition truly have the power and resources to mobilize a significant portion of the population and achieve re-election, or is this an overstatement? How will this entire situation end?

Georgian observers shared their views on this situation with Caliber.Az.

According to political science professor Badri Nachkebia, former president Saakashvili, who is currently in a clinic, is essentially calling for violent actions from members of various opposition parties.

"But in fact, the activity of political parties is currently low, and it is clearly partly due to the fact that Georgian youth are not taking a significant part in protest actions. In general, the masses are showing passivity in response to opposition calls to take to the streets. And opposition leaders are calling, if not for much, for people to actually participate in some kind of uprising against the ruling regime," says the professor.

However, the thing is, he points out, that the ruling forces have a trump card.

"They claim that they are protecting society from the war that opposition parties, primarily those supporting Saakashvili's former ruling party, the United National Movement, are pushing the people toward.

Yes, indeed, today the Georgian Dream has distanced itself from Western calls for confrontation with Russia, and in fact, it is under significant pressure from Western political institutions. This pressure primarily comes from the European Union, and of course, the United States. I think that at this stage, the situation will not change. Saakashvili will continue his calls from his hospital room, but he will not receive support. We will see what further steps the West decides to take regarding Georgia," said Nachkebia.

As political analyst and founder of the SIKHA Foundation research centre Archil Sikharulidze noted, the situation with protests is very difficult for the opposition, as radical calls for a coup and the overthrow of the government have not resonated with the masses.

"Moreover, many of those who voted for opposition candidates are not supporters of violent methods, and certainly did not vote to turn Georgia into a failed state. Right now, there are targeted rallies in the country, and there are quite a few of them, but the same people show up at these rallies, mostly with the same demands, and they, by the way, are very well aware (and everyone understands) that this is more of a spectacle for Western curators, because there is no internal support for violent processes," the researcher explains.

In other words, he believes, it will not be possible to change the situation in the country through rallies.

"Mikheil Saakashvili's statements have long been detached from reality. He still hasn't understood that the 'Rose Revolution' is over, and that revolution, in any case, was not violent. Much of what Saakashvili says is more a matter of the Euromaidan, not Georgian reality.

I think the story will end very simply – on Monday (November 25), the new parliament will convene. It will be approved, and the opposition, as well as anyone abroad, will have no resources left to change the situation. The situation can be explained simply – Georgian Dream firmly holds the reins of power, while the opposition has managed, through its rallies and insults toward anyone who disagrees with them, to turn even the previously neutral part of society against themselves. This part of society has grown tired of the opposition's refusal to ever acknowledge their defeats, while accusing anyone who disagrees with them of being pro-Russian and calling them 'agents of the Kremlin,'" Sikharulidze concludes.