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The implications of Nagorno-Karabakh's dissolution for Azerbaijan and Armenia A new dawn in the South Caucasus

09 January 2024 17:44

Powerless under Azerbaijan's military might, Armenia acquiesced in September 2023 to the dissolution of the 30-year-long destructive Nagorno-Karabakh regime it had created, funded, and retained that triggered three bloody wars with dozens of skirmishes and flare-ups claiming tens of thousands of lives.

The dissolution of the separatist regime on January 1, 2024, marks a significant watershed in the region's history full of ups and downs. After enduring continuous conflicts and three bloody wars, Azerbaijan has successfully restored its territorial integrity. This transformative event carries profound implications for both Azerbaijan and Armenia, paving the way for a renewed focus on diplomacy and a potential peace accord that many experts believe promises economic growth and placidity to the wider region.

Though the disastrous defeat in the 44-day war in 2020 broke the backbone of the militarist regimes in Armenia, unfortunately, it did not bring an end to the conflict that took Azerbaijan another three years to carry out the September 19-20, 2023, anti-terror operation in Karabakh’s separatist-controlled areas to dismantle the last bastion of separatism and close the military page in the history of the 30-year-long conflict.

Azerbaijan's restoration of territorial integrity fosters national unity and stability, eliminating a long-standing source of internal division, and allowing the country to focus on its overall development, primarily, opening up economic opportunities for the region.

Armenia has finally realized the impasse it found itself in for 30 years, depriving itself of mega projects the region has seen since the early 2000s. However, certain ultra-nationalistic forces have not yet completely abandoned their treacherous plans vis-à-vis Azerbaijani territories, alerting the latter to eternal vigilance, which boils down to retaining the military budget minimum at the current level, continuing with procurement of state-of-the-art weapons to repel any possible attack in years to come.

Reconstruction efforts and investment in infrastructure will stimulate economic growth, benefiting both the newly integrated territories and the broader Azerbaijani economy. Karabakh and East Zangazur have turned into a huge construction site now with Azerbaijan rebuilding its cities and villages. The current ongoing rebuilding and restoration in the region, devastated by Armenia throughout the years of occupation, needs the concentration of the government to encourage private investments along with the government to rebuild the territory as large as Luxembourg to relocate former IDPs back to their homes that requires rebuilding with appropriate infrastructure in place to motivate them to stay and contribute to the overall economic development.

Azerbaijan starts post-war resettlement in Karabakh | Eurasianet

The separatist entity that existed only de facto died de facto in the hands of the Azerbaijani army with the last leader Samvel Shahramanyan undersigning the obituary. Actually, it was only a symbolic gesture, a kind of nail in the coffin of the separatist entity. The abolition of the so-called regime meets the interests of Armenia as well as Azerbaijan. January 1, 2024, abolished the bloody regime that turned out to be attainable as a result of Azerbaijan's political and legal struggle.

Azerbaijan has accomplished an insurmountable task that seemed insolvable both regionally and globally for any nation on its own. Not a single country has ever accomplished a task of such gravity and dimension. Today, not a single Armenian separatist is left on the Azerbaijani territory and Azerbaijan has fully restored its state sovereignty.

“Azerbaijan’s historic victory in the Second Karabakh War, the anti-terrorist operation, liberation from the occupiers, and the collapse of the separatist regime have rightly brought all Azerbaijanis together into one fist. The Iron Fist has been the symbol of our victorious chronicle. Today, the Iron Fist is also a symbol of our unity, and I would like to assure the people of Azerbaijan and all Azerbaijanis of the world that the Iron Fist will always be in place,” the Azerbaijani president said in his address on the occasion of the World Azerbaijanis Solidarity Day and New Year.

Reconciliation

The dissolution of the separatist regime also creates an opportunity for humanitarian reconciliation between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Addressing the displacement of populations and promoting social integration can contribute to lasting peace and understanding. The resolution of the conflict enhances Azerbaijan's standing internationally and the restoration of territorial integrity is leading to increased diplomatic recognition and cooperation, fostering regional stability.

With the dissolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh separatist regime, both Baku and Yerevan are presented with an opportunity to engage in diplomatic initiatives. A comprehensive peace accord could address the core issues and establish a framework for cooperation. The resolution of the conflict contributes to regional stability in the South Caucasus. By addressing historical tensions, countries in the region can focus on common goals, such as economic development and cooperation.

The South Caucasus is a strategic region for energy transit. The resolved conflict improves the prospects for regional energy projects, enhancing energy security and economic cooperation among neighboring countries. A peaceful resolution with the signing of a peace accord will gradually promote cultural exchange and connectivity between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Increased people-to-people interactions, tourism, and trade will no doubt follow and create a positive atmosphere of cooperation and understanding.

Armenia’s smart ban

January 1, 2024, is a wake-up call for Armenian nationalists and separatist organizations that their end will not be different from the bogus Karabakh separatist leaders.

The functioning of the remnants of the so-called regime in Yerevan is believed to have triggered a plethora of problems and Pashinyan's team understood this very well. Armenian Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan also came out against the separatist organizations of Karabakh functioning in Armenia.

Armenian Parliament speaker 'apologises' for spitting on ARF member

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan also noted that the separatist regime that existed in Karabakh for the past 30 years is a threat to the existence of Armenia.

If you nurture a poisonous snake in your bosom for your neighbor, you must be prepared for that snake to bite you. The decision to abolish the so-called regime meets the interests of Armenia rather than Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is now writing the real history of both Armenia and the South Caucasus as a whole. Armenians occupied Azerbaijani territories for decades and tried to annex them. They considered it a part of the "great Armenia" project.

Baku destroyed the fictitious "project" forever in 2020. Therefore, the Armenian society should consider the "Artsakh" project as a misunderstanding. Otherwise, revanchist behavior can once and for all clarify another misunderstanding called Armenia. The Armenian political circles trying to bring up the Artsakh claims should first of all understand that they are hostile to Armenia. And this should be the only correct approach to protect the artificially created Armenian statehood.

Armenians should never forget January 1, 2024, as starting from that day, Armenian society faces new realities. Those realities show that the history of Armenian society will be written by the Azerbaijani state. If they do not come to terms with this reality, then the iron fist of Azerbaijan will definitely not be late in writing a different history for the so-called Armenian statehood.

Conclusion

The dissolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh separatist regime presents a unique opportunity for Azerbaijan and Armenia to chart a new course towards peace and stability. As both nations strive for a comprehensive peace accord, the positive ripple effects are likely to extend beyond their borders, influencing the development of the entire South Caucasus region. The key lies in leveraging this transformative moment to build a sustainable foundation for cooperation, prosperity, and lasting peace. Azerbaijan is ready to meet Armenia halfway to sign a peace deal and open up horizons for wider cooperation. What about Armenia?

Caliber.Az
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