Where does Russia stand on the Israel-Hamas war? Tireless efforts of a peacemaker

The start of a new war in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas has sparked speculations about Russia’s role in Hamas’s initial attacks against civilians. Given Moscow's long-term ties to Hamas militant organizations and the Moscow-Tehran axis, many argued that Moscow was behind the Hamas-led attacks in an effort to open a new front against the West while distracting attention away from Ukraine.

Although there is no credible evidence that Russia orchestrated the Israel-Hamas war, Ukrainian officials and some observers were quick to accuse Moscow of meddling and even graver allegations – that it was supplying the Palestinian group with weapons.

Kyiv’s narrative is that Russia is interested in triggering a war in the Middle East so that a new source of pain and suffering could undermine world unity, increase discord and contradictions, and thus help Russia destroy freedom in Europe.

At the same time, the war in Gaza threatens to take global attention and resources away from Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself. This change in focus could lead to a diminution of economic and military assistance for that embattled country. Ukraine has worked assiduously to gain the international community’s support since the invasion unfolded in 2022.

While Russia refuted all allegations, it has engaged in a flurry of diplomatic initiatives, seeking to portray itself as a peacemaker. Yet the question is as much about whether Russia’s diplomacy carries much weight. While Moscow’s diplomacy receives a certain echo in the Middle East, Russia today lacks the resources and clout to act on it. In recent decades, Putin has reasserted Russian influence in the region, forging close ties with Iran and intervening in the Syrian civil war.

Putin also has friendly relations with both sides of the Israel-Palestine conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declined to criticize Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and Russian officials in recent months have met delegations from Hamas, which it does not designate as a terror group. In doing so, Russia provides Hamas with the recognition. In 2006, following the group’s historic victory over Fatah in legislative elections, Putin was among the first world leaders to congratulate it.

Since the war broke out in Gaza, Russia intervened actively to facilitate peace talks between Hamas and Tel Aviv. As such, the Hamas delegation led by Mousa Abu Marzook, a founder and political leader of the militant group, visited Moscow for talks.

For Hamas, Russia is only the actor they trust to mediate, given its rapport with both sides of the conflict. In addition to Hamas, Moscow maintains contacts with Palestinian Islamic Jihad, whose secretary general, Ziyad al-Nakhalah, visited Moscow in February 2021 and was formally received by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Nevertheless, as of today, Russia’s involvement in talks with Israel and Hamas did not yield any result as a diplomatic solution to the crisis in Gaza remains a long way off, with the UN Security Council still riven with divisions. China and Russia vetoed a US-sponsored resolution, while the US and UK vetoed a resolution sponsored by Russia.

With the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Moscow has sought to advance peace through the long-expired Middle East Quartet and use its connections with counterparts to bring about a reconciliation of Palestinian factions.

The US and Western allies will, of course, be very unkeen on this Russian role. Russia's central involvement — if it happens — would allow them to help shape the pace and shape of discussions. Moscow has much to gain from a conflict that draws attention and Western military equipment to the Middle East. Nevertheless, Israel is not that happy with Russia's frequent communication with Hamas and calls to "end the ground operation" in Gaza.

Since the conflict broke out, Russia emphasized its support for the "two-state solution" plan, which appeared to have been shelved over recent years – firmly back on the agenda. Indeed, Moscow's stance could be pivotal in bringing Israel and Hamas to the negotiation table, thus achieving a very significant milestone in terms of diplomacy. Otherwise, Iran's involvement in the process may have destructive ramifications due to the notorious role of its proxy forces, including Hezbollah, based in Lebanon.

Although Russia could play a pivotal role in bringing peace to the Middle East, the Russia-Israel relationship, which had been reasonably balanced, will face a decisive break on the back of the Hamas attacks.