Will power transfer in Georgia spark new protests? Expert insights

Georgia’s political climate has been heating up once again since the recent presidential election. Outgoing President Salome Zourabichvili refuses to acknowledge the results of both the parliamentary and presidential elections and adamantly insists on staying in the presidential residence. Experts warn that the inauguration of the newly elected president, Mikheil Kavelashvili, could become a new "day of reckoning" for the country, especially when the question of power transfer arises. Protests in Tbilisi continue, and it seems Zourabichvili is pinning her hopes on these demonstrations.

Meanwhile, the outgoing president has been urged to comply with the law. A new bill has been introduced that would strip Zourabichvili of state security services once her presidential term officially ends. The inauguration of the new president is scheduled for December 29. On that day, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze stated that Zourabichvili "will have to leave the residence and hand it over to the legitimately elected president."

Will the power transfer process ignite a new wave of protests in Georgia? How might Zourabichvili and her supporters respond? Caliber.Az correspondents put these questions to Georgian political analysts.

According to Professor Tornike Sharashenidze, head of the School of International Relations at the Georgian Institute of Public Affairs, attempts to spark a revolution in Georgia have run their course, and the peak of protests is now subsiding.

“As Georgia’s last directly elected president, Zourabichvili was granted an additional year in office, but even that term is coming to an end. On December 29, the new president is set to take office, yet Zourabichvili has stated she has no intention of leaving the residence. In my view, this is a nonsensical stance. Simply cutting off electricity, gas, and water would make staying there pointless. Therefore, I don’t anticipate any significant complications on that day,” Sharashenidze asserted.

According to Georgian political analyst and Chairman of the Confederation of the Peoples of the Caucasus, Zaal Kasrelishvili, the issue is not about names or individuals. The situation in Georgia is heading toward a dual power structure, and this process is not being controlled by a single person or political figure. Far greater forces are at play behind this, far beyond the scope of an uncooperative, re-elected president.

"I believe these protests will have a negative impact on Georgia's future and public sentiment. It’s winter now, so street protests are unlikely to gather a critical mass, but in early spring next year, we can expect larger demonstrations. These may also be joined by citizens dissatisfied with the economic situation in Georgia. Let’s be honest, the people in Georgia are struggling, and discontent with this situation is growing. If Salome Zourabichvili tries to harness this electorate for support, such a turn of events could create a problem and destabilize the situation in Georgia. However, I believe that if a strong centre-right party emerges in Georgia, it will quickly absorb both Zourabichvili and the Georgian opposition, attracting the popular masses — there is a societal need for such a force.

As for the situation regarding Zourabichvili's protest and her refusal to vacate the presidential residence, which needs to be handed over to the newly elected president, various unforeseen complications cannot be ruled out. We simply don’t know what those behind these protests have in mind. I have already expressed my position in an interview with Georgian media: we must eliminate provocateurs, who can be found both within the opposition and the ruling party. These elements, regardless of their affiliation, are working against Georgia, serving their own masters with their own interests. In 1992, the Georgians didn’t want to fight each other, but in order to provoke a clash, third parties opened fire on both the government forces and the opposition – just a few shots were enough. And that’s when it all started...

However, it’s clear that if it comes to forcibly removing Zourabichvili from the presidential residence, the opposition will come to her aid – this moment could become critical," said Kasrelishvili.