"Armenia missed its chance to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan in 2022" Caliber.Az interview with expert Dmitry Solonnikov

Caliber.Az had an interview with Dmitry Solonnikov, director of the Russian Institute of Contemporary State Development.

- How do you assess Armenia's refusal to participate in the talks with Azerbaijan in Moscow? What lies behind such an impudent demarche of the Armenian authorities?

- Armenia's refusal to participate in the planned trilateral talks in Moscow is a manifestation of a trend that surfaced in full force at the end of this year. Armenia will henceforth negotiate exclusively under the patronage of the West. Yerevan has finally decided that the current Armenian leadership is a protectorate of France and the US, so any political actions will be conducted by Armenia exclusively under their patronage, and in their presence.

For this reason, the talks in Moscow between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia, where Sergei Lavrov was supposed to be the moderator of the negotiation process, have become unacceptable for Yerevan. The current Armenian leadership has made its choice and looks set to play by the rules dictated by Paris and Washington. Armenia's refusal of the negotiation platform initiated by non-NATO Euro-Atlantic organisations confirmed this once again.

- In your opinion, what was the year like in terms of the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations?

- I think the assessment of the outgoing year in terms of the normalisation of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations follows from the above-mentioned. I think 2022 was a year of an unrealised opportunity to sign a peace agreement and get out of the current situation. This could have been avoided if Armenia had pursued the implementation of previously signed agreements. However, due to the interference of Western forces, in particular France and the US, this chance could not be realised, which carried the problem into the future. So for the time being, a scenario has been set in motion that will keep Armenia from negotiating and signing a peace treaty.

In my opinion, the negotiations could have resulted in a breakthrough this year, we could have witnessed the signing of a border agreement, a peace treaty, the beginning of a new life in the South Caucasus, including a normal life in Armenia itself, involving large investments, construction of logistical infrastructure, increased trade and so on. But no, Armenia has chosen a different direction and this is its own choice.

- So, the possibility of signing a peace agreement next year remains low, too?

- There will be a senseless prolongation of the negotiation process, in terms of making decisions not to sign anything. It will be a deception of all the negotiating parties on the part of Europe, France in particular. Such a policy has already been implemented relatively successfully in Minsk, and now the same scenario will try to be applied to the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. In this connection, they will pump Armenia with arms, deceive Azerbaijan and Russia, and announce in advance what they will not do. In a word, the deceitful French diplomacy will now be applied in the South Caucasus. In this case, the negotiations will not end positively, and we will see new advisers, observers, and instructors from NATO countries being sent to Armenia under any pretext. Consequently, the situation around the negotiation process will deteriorate.

- In Armenia, certain forces are calling for a new war with Azerbaijan, in particular, former Prime Minister Khosrov Harutyunyan recently voiced this idea. Are there any serious preconditions for such a scenario in the future?

- A full-fledged war is impossible in the near future. However, both France and the US will push Armenia for revenge. To do this, they will reformat Armenia to NATO standards, and they will debate that Armenia lost the 44-day war to Azerbaijan due to the lack of the right tactics, proper weapons, and good allies. In this regard, the Armenian army will be retrained according to the NATO model, convinced that the Armenians will be able to win a new war. Against this background, calls for revenge and a new war, for which Armenia will prepare with the help of Western states, will undoubtedly intensify. I believe that the current Armenian leadership will follow exactly this scenario.