Armenia misses yet another key opportunity at COP29 President Aliyev’s strong messages

There are explanations for everything, including the mistakes made by the leaders of different countries. For instance, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister, Jeyhun Bayramov, expressed his surprise at Armenia's absence from COP29. Bayramov reminded that when the decision was made to host COP29 in Azerbaijan, both countries took reciprocal steps.

"Armenia lifted its veto, and Azerbaijan agreed to elect Armenia to the Eastern European Bureau. To ensure the inclusivity of COP, Azerbaijan extended an invitation to Armenia, as well as to other member states. Despite Armenia registering several representatives, we did not see their participation in the conference. We view this as a missed opportunity," Bayramov stated.

The Azerbaijani Foreign Minister is right. However, there is an explanation for what we observed. Clearly, by agreeing to host COP29 in Baku, the Armenian leadership intended to use the mere fact of holding such an important event, which was under the global spotlight, as an opportunity to try to pressure Azerbaijan. Naturally, they were counting on support from the global Armenian diaspora and biased politicians from various countries. The Armenian leadership has never sought to achieve real peace. They hoped to gain as many advantages as possible from declarations of readiness to sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan, without taking any concrete steps in that direction. The refusal to amend Armenia's Constitution, which still contains territorial claims against Azerbaijan and Türkiye, is a clear example of this. Another indication of the insincerity of official Yerevan is their refusal to formally abolish the already ineffective OSCE Minsk Group.

But what has Armenia gained from its policy of hypocrisy? Absolutely nothing. On the contrary, once again, it became clear that Armenia is not an independent state. Its fate is to be a country whose foreign policy is dictated by the leadership of other nations. The only thing that changes is who shapes Armenia's foreign policy. If, as Boris Gryzlov once put it, Armenia was "Russia's outpost in the Caucasus," it has now become "France's canton in the South Caucasus." Yes, France officially has 2,074 cantons, 175 of which are overseas. Unofficially, as we can see, France uses Armenia as a canton. Therefore, it is no surprise that the absence of French President Emmanuel Macron in Baku coincided with the absence of an Armenian delegation in Baku.

In this context, it is worth noting a statement made by the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, during the opening ceremony of the COP29 Leaders' Summit in Baku. He addressed those who have been promoting a boycott for nearly a year, using all available means to campaign against holding COP29 in Baku. "I have bad news for them. We have 72,000 registered participants from 196 countries. Among them are 80 presidents, vice presidents, and prime ministers. So, the world has gathered in Baku, and we say to the world: Welcome to Azerbaijan," the president declared.

Aliyev rightly highlighted that, unfortunately, double standards, the habit of lecturing other countries, and political hypocrisy have become entrenched tactics for certain politicians, who are controlled by state-funded NGOs and media outlets that spread fake news in some Western countries. Since Baku was announced as the host city for COP29, a relentless smear campaign against Azerbaijan has unfolded. A wide range of figures have been involved— from various European and American media outlets, which have shown that lies and nonsense can be spread for money, to former International Criminal Court prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo, to Nathalie Loiseau, Vice Chair of the European Parliament's delegation for relations with the South Caucasus, and dozens of US congressmen and senators. And what has been the outcome of their attempts to blackmail Azerbaijan? The answer is clear—nothing.

Furthermore, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen did not come to Baku under a fabricated pretext. Did this harm Azerbaijan? Not at all. In fact, Baku welcomed UN Secretary-General António Guterres, European Council President Charles Michel, and presidents and prime ministers from various countries, including European ones.

"Another point of accusation is that two years ago, Azerbaijan and the European Commission signed a Declaration on strategic partnership in the field of energy. But it was not our idea. It was a proposal from the European Commission. The President of the European Commission came to Baku two years ago to sign this document with us. Because they needed our gas due to the change of geopolitical situation, and they asked us to help," President Ilham Aliyev reminded.

On July 18, 2022, Azerbaijan and the European Commission signed a memorandum of understanding on strategic energy cooperation. The document was signed in Baku by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who at the time, and subsequently, expressed gratitude towards Azerbaijan, emphasizing the country's critical role in ensuring Europe's energy security. Now, the true value of her statements has become clear.

A similar gap between words and actions can be observed in the case of Armenia. We were once again reminded of this after a statement by Armenia's Finance Minister, Vahe Hovhannisyan. According to him, the Armenian Ministry of Defense will receive 664.7 billion drams ($1.7 billion) in 2025, which is 110 billion drams ($281 million) more than in 2024. As we can see, Armenia is not preparing for peace, but for war.

Macron’s France, primarily, along with certain circles in other countries, is providing Armenia with political, informational, financial, and military support. It’s worth considering some figures. Armenia’s national debt is projected to rise from 49.8% to 53.5% of GDP by the end of 2025. This is stated in the analytical note attached to the 2025 budget draft. In absolute terms, the debt will increase from $12.644 billion to $13.972 billion. Moreover, Armenia has no significant "safety cushion" in the form of large foreign exchange reserves. Against this backdrop, the increase in military spending is an obvious sign that Armenia is preparing for a new war with Azerbaijan.

This is why Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev, on Victory Day, issued a warning to official Yerevan and its backers, urging them to halt the militarization of Armenia and pointing out the potential consequences of continuing such provocative policies. Whether this warning will be heeded in Yerevan will become clear very soon.