Armenian "peacemaker show" in France Grigoryan's "pacifist" mission to Paris

Having lost all chances to conduct any effective foreign policy, Armenia is trying to imitate it. Yerevan is particularly eager to pretend that it is a supporter of peace, which has political weight and significance.

It is clear, of course, that it is rather difficult to wash off the stigma of an occupant, murderer, and looter, but it is possible to try to pretend to be a "peacemaker". For example, to pose in this image at least in front of France - to exalt oneself in the eyes of the French and to fuel one's ego. The problem is that Washington and Brussels, in contrast to Paris, have been watching Yerevan's games for a long time, having put off their rose-colored glasses. That is why Yerevan's hastily staged and unconvincing performances look so weak. It only remains to watch ironically as the Secretary of the RA Security Council Armen Grigoryan travels around Paris assuring local politicians and the public there that Armenia is ready to contribute to ensuring... security in the region. It may sound paradoxical and funny, but that's how it is.

Armenian media report that during his working visit to France Grigoryan had already met with many French officials, in particular, Isabelle Dumont, presidential advisor on continental Europe and Türkiye, Frederic Mondoloni, director of Continental Europe Department of the French Foreign Ministry, Vice-Admiral Christophe Lucas, deputy head of international relations and strategic planning of the French Defence Ministry, Brice Roquefeuil, former French co-chair of the former OSCE Minsk Group. The sides, as the same media reports, exchanged views on a number of international and regional security issues of mutual interest, as well as noted "the dynamics of the development of bilateral multisectoral relations between Armenia and France that have recently intensified".

Well, I can only sympathize with the French taxpayers whose hard-earned money goes down the drain. Especially zealous people should ask the organizers of this ridiculous political show - who needs it and for what? It is difficult to understand and explain how the aggressor and occupant, which has held Azerbaijani territories for thirty years, i.e. Armenia, has anything to do with the concept of "security". And why does it claim any role, even the smallest one, in such an important sphere? It is impossible to understand how Armenia can appear as a political actor at all, let alone guarantee security for anything or anyone, if it itself has been avoiding signing a peace treaty with Azerbaijan to this day, undermining the very political stability and mutual understanding that it swears to protect. The constant shelling and armed provocations by Armenia on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conditional border do not correspond to the word "security" at all, and the unwillingness to withdraw the remnants of gangs, entrenched in the zone of responsibility of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh is completely at odds with the signed documents. Although, as I remember, Armenia pledged to do this back in November 2020, after its army's defeat and the Trilateral Declaration signing. That is to say, to trust the security of the region to Yerevan is the same as to entrust control of financial flows to professional swindlers and thieves. The outcome is obvious.

And what's more interesting is whether the Armenian side is really dreaming about "activating the dynamics of the development of bilateral relations". Only in the background of this nonsense, can we afford all this populist demagogy about "security in the region". In other words, the relations with Paris are activated and Yerevan seems to think that these relations will only grow stronger and stronger. This does not seem to be the case. France needs Armenia for a reason.

As we know, one of the foundations of the geopolitical order in the South Caucasus is the cooperation between Azerbaijan, Britain, and Türkiye. These three countries have a long history of political ties and global investments. Now France is sighing enviously when it sees how this cooperation, which even Russia has to reckon with, is successfully shaping the modern world agenda in the South Caucasus. In this context, Paris's logic is clear: France was dreaming that it too might try to create a political bloc with Armenia, which at least consented to it and was ready to oblige. In this sense, France, which recalled that it had such a resource in the South Caucasus, seemed to have chances to compete with the current leaders in this region. The fact that Paris has the plan to create a France-Russia-Armenia alliance in the region is evidenced by Macron's persistent attempts to maintain relations with Moscow, despite the fact that the entire European world has abandoned high-level contacts with Russia after the unleashing of the war with Ukraine.

It is already obvious that Macron's ideas to create some kind of alternative to the triple alliance in the South Caucasus are doomed to failure due to a number of factors, one of which is the political short-sightedness of the French president himself, his superficial understanding of the domestic politics of the South Caucasus region and Armenia's image in the international community. It seems he failed to comprehend that Yerevan is a very toxic partner under international law. And that most of the civilized countries of the world understand one way or another who is in fact an occupant and who is a liberator of its lands. And it is difficult to turn away from the four UN resolutions demanding the liberation of Azerbaijani Karabakh from Armenia, from the current position of Brussels and Washington suggesting Armenia forget the word "Artsakh" and proceed with the signing of a peace treaty as soon as possible. If someone in Paris and Yerevan hopes for a Francophone pro-Armenian peace, which, according to their plan, will lobby for the interests of Armenians, they clearly forget that the anti-Azerbaijani resolutions of the parliaments of some European countries are completely disowned by the governments of those countries, saying that they do not intend to spoil relations with Azerbaijan. That is, Macron himself is practically bound hand and foot in his Franco-Armenian game - in fact, even the French Foreign Ministry says it does not support the empty anti-Azerbaijani resolutions of its parliament.

The second important factor is Europe's interest in energy cooperation with Baku, which negates any French-Armenian ambitions and intrigues at the root. It is more important for Europe to maintain stable relations with Azerbaijan by developing the energy transit, rather than help Macron realize his ambitions in the South Caucasus. It is simply not up to that. Brussels and London are staking on Azerbaijan - this is clear and understandable. And Armenia, which is successfully gobbling up European credits, is an eternal beggar, "long-suffering" - like a yoke around its neck. Now, when Europe suffers from an energy crisis and freezes, wrapping into great-grandmother's moth-eaten shawl, it somehow does not care much about suffering Armenia.

So, any plans of Macron to push his presence in the South Caucasus are ephemeral and transient, have no real grounds, and mean only one thing - the complete isolation of Yerevan in the region after Paris, having played enough with Armenia, will start realizing cooperation with really effective states.