"Armenian population of Karabakh should accept Baku's proposal" Warsaw Professor Zasztowt talks to Caliber.Az

The appearance of the Russian oligarch Ruben Vardanyan in Karabakh and his further actions raise many questions, according to the Professor of the Middle East and Caucasus Studies Department of Warsaw University, Konrad Zasztowt. However, it is clear that the task of this “State Minister” is to influence the process of the normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Commenting on the current situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani track for Caliber.Az, the Polish scientist said, that “Of course, Russia has its troops in Karabakh and in the South Caucasus region in general. However, the military potential of the Russian army, which is currently involved in the war against Ukraine, has been exhausted, so Moscow is not able to carry out any serious political, military and diplomatic activities in other areas. On the other hand, Moscow is still trying to use some form of influence in the Karabakh region. The presence of Russian businessman Ruben Vardanyan in Khankendi, for example, raises a number of questions. Probably, Vardanyan is one of the last instruments of influence on the political situation in both Azerbaijan and Armenia”.

As per Zasztowt, Baku and Yerevan must continue the difficult negotiations in order to fully resolve the issue.

“For thirty years after the First Karabakh War, we have witnessed the negotiation process and we know that all efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group to settle the conflict have not yielded any positive results. However, the main problem is not only the position of both sides in the negotiations, but also the different interests in the regional politics of the intervening geopolitical forces. In particular, Russia and even some European countries are interested in the status-quo on the Nagorno-Karabakh [Karabakh region of Azerbaijan] issue, rather than solving problems between the two sides. For the Kremlin, Karabakh has always been a serious lever of pressure on the authorities of both Azerbaijan and Armenia. Moscow, therefore, interferes with the establishment of lasting peace and stability in the South Caucasus.

At the same time, no other state except Russia can seriously influence Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, yet ever since Moscow started the war in Ukraine, official Baku and Yerevan have ignored the words and statements of Russia and other mediators. The question is whether both sides will take full advantage of this opportunity. Azerbaijan has more military advantages than Armenia, yet Baku is trying to resolve the issue peacefully. The Armenian population of Karabakh should consider this attitude a positive signal and accept the Baku's proposal as a guarantee of lasting peace. However, one will have to go a long way to find a common language”, our interviewee is convinced.

At the same time, the expert is confident that the European Union, Türkiye and the United States can contribute to the establishment of peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, including between the Azerbaijani and Armenian communities of Karabakh.

The US and the EU can help the peace process, but Washington and Brussels are unable to resolve the main issues related to the situation in Karabakh. In any case, direct dialogue between Azerbaijan and Armenia is very important. Türkiye and Georgia, as countries of the region, can also make a positive contribution to resolving the dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia and ensuring peace in the region. A peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan could give a positive impetus to the opening of borders, the transport of transit goods, the free movement of people, the establishment of business relations and the development of tourism. This will ultimately lead to a safe and secure life for all the people of the South Caucasus. The conclusion of the peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia will solve many problems in the region”, Zasztowt summed up.