Azerbaijanis returning to Shusha while Armenia faces protests led by Archbishop Caliber.Az weekly review

Caliber.Az has prepared another episode of "Sobitiya" (Events) show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev about the main news of the week related to Azerbaijan and other countries.

Azerbaijan - Armenia

The delimitation and demarcation of the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia is underway this week (May 6-12).

While the progressive public of Armenia welcomes this process, revanchist forces led by the Armenian church marched from Tovuzgala to Yerevan, where they held a protest rally that attracted approximately 20,000 people.

Then, another rally with the same number of participants was held. The next rally is scheduled for May 12. The formal leader of the protests is Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, an obese, middle-aged and energetic man.

This fat man seems to show the revanchist resources of the Armenian people, and his tanned skin, graying beard, sparkling eyes create an image of a new hero and almost a sex symbol of Armenia.

By the way, he is imitating Pashinyan. Pashinyan’s hand was bandaged during the 2018 protests, while Galstanyan bandaged legs, which he allegedly hurt while going to Yerevan.

Galstanyan is a tool which is used by the Karabakh clan led by Robert Kocharyan.

People say that after the first rally Galstanyan ran to the hotel where Kocharyan’s office is located. Galstanyan gave Pashinyan an hour to resign.

Pashinyan did not pay attention to the ultimatum and Galstanyan promised to initiate impeachment proceedings in parliament.

A rather strange initiative, given that the majority of votes in the National Assembly belong to Pashinyan’s party.

Apparently, the goal of the rally organisers is not impeachment itself, but prolonging the protests in anticipation of something unexpected.

Let’s talk about other interesting developments.

Pashinyan visited Moscow, where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and took part in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) summit.

Pashinyan’s visit can be called an attempt to fix certain demarcation lines with Moscow while maintaining the basic points of alliance in security.

An agreement has been reached to stop guarding sections of the border with Azerbaijan by Russian border guards, as well as their withdrawal from Yerevan’s Zvartnots airport.

However, Russian border guards will still remain to guard Armenia’s border with Türkiye and Iran.

The Armenian Foreign Ministry announced that Armenia would refrain from participating in financing the Collective Security Treaty Organisation’s (CSTO) budget for 2024.

Moreover, a Russian military base is still operating in Armenia. Its significance for Moscow’s influence in Armenia is bigger than Armenia’s participation in the CSTO.

During Pashinyan’s visit to Moscow, the information went viral that the Eurasian Fund for Stabilisation and Development will allocate funds worth $100 million to Armenia.

The first day of negotiations between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia has been recently held at the House of Friendship in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

The meeting lasted four hours and continued on May 11. In a statement, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry following the meeting in Almaty announced that Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan agreed to continue negotiations on open issues on which there are still disagreements.

Although no breakthrough decisions were made, the meeting on the process of normalising relations became an important element in the process of preparing a peace agreement without mediators.

President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev made another trip to the Karabakh region, where he viewed road projects and restoration work and took part in the opening ceremonies of several facilities, including a residential complex in Shusha.

The first group of Shusha residents - 88 people from 20 families arrived in Shusha after 32 years.

During a meeting with the Shusha residents who returned to their native lands again, the president made a speech in which he reminded everyone that Azerbaijan is the leading country in the Caucasus.

The following quote deserves special attention amid the developments in Armenia.

“After the second Karabakh war, we told Armenia that let’s fairly delimit the border. If you don’t want this, then the border will be where we want it to be,” the message says.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev already voiced this idea in January 2023, and since then Baku has hoped for Yerevan’s constructive approach to delimiting the border.

As opposed to the first signal, which was addressed to Yerevan and which Yerevan understood, the current one is addressed both to the Armenian rally participants and to the foreign patrons of the revanchist forces.

The negotiation process is facing a historic threshold. Its fate depends on whether Pashinyan will be able to survive the fight against the revanchists or not.

This, in turn, depends on the rally participants rather than on the vote in parliament.

The rally organisers may commit provocations - for example, shoot at the crowd.

One death is enough for the rally participants to take to the streets and demand the prime minister’s resignation. Pashinyan must be vigilant.

UKRAINE - RUSSIA

Russia launched an offensive in the direction of Kharkiv, taking control of four villages in a few hours.

The experts think that the goal of the operation is to disperse the forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to find a weak point and break through the front rather than to move to Kharkiv.

“Ukraine is losing up to 20 square kilometres a week,” The Economist says.

In an interview to The Economist several Ukrainian officers stated that there are currently big risks. Russia may seize entire Donbas. Ukraine’s survival is more important than territorial integrity.

Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy once again called on the West to speed up arms supplies to Ukraine. However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lack weapons and servicemen.

The law on mobilisation adopted too late amid draft evasion creates an unfavorable situation for the Ukrainian resistance.

Amid these circumstances, retired US General Ben Hodges stated that NATO would stop sending weapons to Kyiv if total mobilisation was not carried out in Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine was one of the main issues on the agenda of Chinese President Xi Jinping's European tour, especially the negotiations in Paris with French President Emmanuel Macron.

President Xi welcomed the intention to achieve a peace agreement by the Paris Olympics, but the sides did not make any specific statements regarding the resolution of the conflict.

The New York Times wrote that President Macron’s desire to convince Xi Jinping to “put pressure” on Russia due to the Ukrainian issue did not lead to any results.

Obviously, the West is not ready, in response to Beijing’s services on the Ukrainian issue, to meet China’s numerous demands both in the economic sphere and in the Taiwan issue.

The Russian Defence Ministry announced that the General Staff, upon President Putin’s instructions, began preparation for holding exercises in the near future with missile formations of the Southern Military District and the Navy.

The tactical nuclear weapons are planned to be used during the exercises. The exercises are being prepared in response to “provocative statements and threats from Western officials” and will be held “in the near future”.

According to the Italian Corriere della Sera newspaper, the NATO at the summit in Washington in July may approve a document declaring a refusal from its direct intervention in the conflict in Ukraine.

The bargaining ahead of the negotiations continues. The Americans are sending long-range weapons, while the Russians are increasing their military offensive by manipulating nuclear weapons. The Chinese are still silent. Everything will be obvious on the battlefield.

MIDDLE EAST

The Israeli army launched a limited operation in Rafah. This occurred  after Hamas rejected another truce plan.

The plan was quite beneficial for Hamas, it envisaged a long-term cessation of hostilities and the release of numerous Palestinian prisoners.

However, Hamas apparently decided that Israel was in a weak position and demanded a complete ceasefire.

In response, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) entered the eastern settlements of Rafah and seized the checkpoint on the border between Gaza Strip and Egypt.

Hostilities are underway with Hamas. Civilians have been evacuated to a specially created tent city on the sea coast.

Amid the operation in Rafah, Washington imposed an embargo on the supply of offensive weapons to Israel.

After the Israelis left the northern and central settlements of the Gaza Strip, Hamas representatives appear there again.

The information went viral about resumption of hostilities in Zeitoun and Nuseirat settlements. Iran ordered Hezbollah to intensify the escalation in the north, after which the northern regions of Israel were subjected to new attacks.

There is no progress in the situation with the release of the hostages. Israel has been drawn into another phase of an endless war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will soon face another, even more powerful wave of protests.