Can Russia's plan of creating land corridor to Transnistria and Prut be implemented? Caliber.Az from Chisinau

Caliber.Az has had an interview with a Political Analyst at Moldova’s Institute for Effective Politics Ruslan Shevchenko.

- Tension sharply and unexpectedly increased in the Transnistrian region of Moldova. In particular, communication towers were blown up, and the "Interior Ministry" in Tiraspol was fired upon. What is happening in this region?

- This is an ordinary provocation as neither the Moldovan authorities nor the separatists are preparing for clashes and do not want them, there is no basis for Russian intervention. Therefore, the reason for the invasion must be organized by Russia itself and the attacks have been committed. 

The "Interior Ministry" and especially the "Ministry of State Security" and "Ministry of Defence" of the separatists are controlled mainly by the Kremlin, rather than by Tiraspol puppets. Perhaps, taking into account that there are a lot of video cameras around the building of the “Ministry of State Security” of the region, the “attack” was created by the Tiraspol security officers themselves on Moscow’s order. The same refers to the attempt to undermine the communication towers - they are under the strict control of the "Ministry of State Security" of the region, and these theatrical "attacks" were organized upon its instructions.

- May a new war started in Transnistria?

- War may start in the region. The statement of Deputy Commander of the Central Military District, Major General Rustam Minnekaev about the creation of another corridor in Transnistria, in which the Russian-speaking population is being harassed and the statement of the leader of the "Donetsk People's Republic" Denis Pushilin that the operation in Transnistria can start immediately after the siege of the entire territory of Donetsk region by Russian troops and separatists in the region. They will try to do this either before May 9 or during May-June, if the counterattack of the Ukrainian army, which is currently being prepared, is not made. Otherwise, the war will continue for an indefinite period of time. 

- That is, you also think that Russia is preparing to create a land route to Transnistria through Ukrainian territory? 

- The plans of the Russian Federation to create the land corridor from Donbas to Transnistria have been expressed repeatedly over the years. These plans were repeatedly voiced after Russia’s attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The existence of these plans is confirmed by Minnekaev and Pushilin and a number of Russian politicians and analysts. Russian politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who has recently died, also stated about such plans. Therefore, there is every reason to consider the opinion about the plans to create a land corridor to Transnistria, and further to the Prut, absolutely reliable. The only question is whether the Russian army will be able to implement this.

- What measures do Chisinau take to solve the problem of Transnistria?

- The Moldovan authorities do not yet have a clear plan for the reintegration of Transnistria and the authorities’ actions are based only on the law of July 22, 2005, which envisages a special status for the region. However, neither Tiraspol nor Moscow wants to even hear about it. Negotiations on Transnistria have been at an impasse for several years, especially after M. Sandu was elected president of Moldova in November 2020, who considers such negotiations a waste of time, until Tiraspol and Moscow are ready to recognize Transnistria as part of Moldova, albeit with a special status.

- Are there ties between the population of the Transnistrian region and the main part of Moldova today? What is the situation in this region?

- The ties between the left bank of the Dniester with the rest part of Moldova have always been and still remain, both between businessmen and ordinary residents of the two parts of our country. Buses run between both banks without any problems. There are no problems with access to information websites and social networks. There are difficulties only with telephone communication due to the separatist regime’s actions.

The regional situation is tense and anxiety is growing. People see the war in Ukraine and are looking for a way out of the situation. Many residents hastily began to assume the citizenship of Moldova. Now there are more than 300,000 Moldovan citizens in the region out of a total population of 470,000.

Taking into account that almost everyone there has 2-3 passports, there will be even more people with Moldovan passports soon. In case of hostilities in Odesa and Vinnytsia regions adjacent to Moldova, tens and hundreds of thousands of residents of the region will move across the Dniester to the right bank and further to Romania and to the West. Most of them are already ready for this.

- The information was disseminated that in connection with the tension around Transnistria, the Armed Forces of Romania, which, as is known, is a member of NATO, were put on alert. That is, may a new Moldovan-Russian war occur?

- So far, our and Romanian media have not reported on bringing the Romanian army to combat readiness. It is known, however, that our and the Romanian special services are thoroughly monitoring the whole situation in Ukraine. If the Russian troops enter Odessa or the Odessa-Chisinau highway, or if the Russian military arrives in Transnistria by planes, the Romanian army can really be brought into a state of combat readiness. As for the "new Moldovan-Russian war", today there are no conditions for reoccurring events of 1992. If Russian troops enter Transnistria, then they will siege the rest, right-bank Moldova, easily within a few days.