Israel-Hamas war would be the prelude of US-Iran confrontation Calm before the storm

Since the outbreak of the war between Israel and Gaza militants, Iran — as a major regional player and a key ally of the Hamas movement — has been pursuing an active diplomatic campaign to isolate Israel. At the same time, it has attempted to project disinterest in a spillover of the conflict.

Nevertheless, as Israel readies for a ground invasion of Gaza and Palestinian and Israeli civilian deaths continue to mount, a broader struggle for influence continues in the Middle East between the United States and Iran.

The U.S. has long played an important leadership role in the Middle East. American influence has hinged on maintaining close ties to diverse allies, including Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. As for Iran, it established an extensive network of proxies in the Middle East and acted as a staunch supporter of Hamas against Israel by providing it with weaponry, intelligence data, and military instructors. Indeed, support for the Palestinian cause has been an ideological principle of Iran's Shiite theocracy since its inception in 1979. 

Iran boosted aid to Hamas during the Second Intifada, a violent Palestinian uprising from 2000 to 2005, and again after a 2006 election victory brought Hamas to power in Gaza. Iran also gave weapons and money to Hamas during its 2008-09 and 2014 armed conflicts with Israel.

The Palestinian card has long been a favourite tool of Tehran for maintaining its influence in the Arab World and boosting anti-Western and anti-Israeli sentiments. As such, the current deadly escalation between Israel and Hamas and the bombardment of Gaza enabled Iran to prompt its involvement in regional affairs.

Amid the rising death tolls in Gaza, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that a political settlement of the situation in the Gaza Strip is becoming increasingly unlikely, and Tehran warned it may take "preemptive action" against Israel.

Moreover, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has accused Israel of carrying out genocide against Palestinians in Gaza and warned Israel that it must pull back from its attacks on the besieged territory. Iranian officials often use the term “axis of resistance” to refer to a network of Iran-backed armed groups throughout the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Some scholars argue that Iran is planning to open a second front against Israel in an attempt to support Hamas militants' further attacks on southern territories. The second front would mean the involvement of Hezbollah forces in the process, which would be devastating for Lebanon.

Iran supports Hamas and other groups based on anti-Israeli ideology - from the Shiite Hezbollah movement in Lebanon to the Sunni Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip and Syria. Conversely, with Hezbollah's missile capabilities believed to have been significantly bolstered by Tehran in recent years, the Lebanese militia currently poses the biggest threat to Israel.

Despite the bellicose rhetoric and muscle show, Iran denied any involvement in Hamas's recent attacks against Israel. In this regard, experts seemed sceptical that Iran may directly enter the war against Israel to support Hamas.

Iran’s involvement in the offensive will make the U.S. response inevitable. The U.S. assesses that its move to deploy more military assets in the region in the past two weeks — including the arrival of two new naval carrier strike groups in the Mediterranean — has helped keep Iran out of the fray.

Iran-backed Shia groups have also reportedly moved from Iraq into western Syria near the Israeli border, raising alarm among U.S. officials. The U.S.'s Ain al-Asad base in western Iraq was targeted by rockets earlier this week, and the Al Tanf garrison in Syria.

Also, if Iran becomes directly involved in the conflict, there is a risk of countries such as Iraq, Syria and Lebanon also becoming involved. Immediate military considerations as Israel counters Iran's strategic goals - responding to Hamas' devastating attack, has unleashed an aerial blitz on Gaza.

Besides, Iran itself has the potential to launch a direct attack on Israel. Long-range missiles produced by Tehran, as the Iranian military said a year ago, "could flatten Tel Aviv". The Islamic Republic is actively developing missile technology and unmanned systems.

Regardless of the results of the upcoming ground operation in Gaza, Israel-Hamas escalation poses diplomatic and security risks for the volatile region and leading Western countries engaged with it, namely the U.S.

The Biden administration has tried to balance strong support for Israel with a message of restraint. Notwithstanding, the security balance in the Middle East tilted after October 7, and the engagement of Western and regional powers will not yield positive results.