“Kyiv is playing with Yerevan, tearing it away from Russia” Kovalenko and Semivolos on Caliber.Az

Is a radical change in relations between Armenia and Ukraine possible, that is, some kind of thaw between Kyiv and Yerevan? Until recently, it seemed – no, the contradictions between the two countries were irresistible. However, times are changing, Armenia has recently begun to spout anti-Russian statements, pursue a policy of breaking relations with Moscow, and now some Ukrainian and Armenian experts suddenly started talking about a new trend - the rapprochement of the positions of Kyiv and Yerevan. This, in their opinion, is indicated by a number of events.

Thus, in September 2023, Armenia sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine for the first time. It was brought to Kyiv by the wife of the Armenian prime minister. In early November, Pashinyan had a short conversation with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy on the fringes of the European Political Community summit in Granada, Spain. Next came a meeting between the head of the Office of the Ukrainian president, Andriy Yermak, and Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan in Malta.

Has a “new context” really emerged in Armenian-Ukrainian relations? The editorial office of Caliber.Az asked Ukrainian experts to answer this question.

According to the director of the Ukrainian Center for Middle Eastern Studies, political expert Igor Semivolos, there is no need to talk about any “new context” in Armenian-Ukrainian relations.

“There were contacts, it is true, but it is hard to say whether they can be assessed as a fundamental change in Kyiv’s position. Moreover, considering that Ukraine will not reconsider its position on Karabakh, relations with Azerbaijan are of a strategic nature and are not subject to any revision,” he emphasized.

At the same time, according to military-political observer of the Information Resistance group Alexander Kovalenko, Armenia is now in a state of drift - moving from the field of Russia’s orbit of influence in an unknown direction. And here it is difficult to judge the political strategy of the Armenians, since Yerevan’s actions are very chaotic.

“Armenia is now trying to be friends with literally everyone, while abstracting itself from Russia. Ukraine is using this situation to its advantage because it is concerned about one problem - recently Armenia has turned into a top smuggling route for delivering microelectronics so important for waging war to Russia. The Russian military-industrial complex needs this to create new weapons - microcircuits, microchips, semiconductors. It is clear that Armenia does not have any base of its own for the production of such high-tech products, so it acts only as a transit link, an extra transit corridor for the needs of Russian industry. Kyiv is now trying to solve this problem by building a policy of rapprochement with Yerevan on a number of issues.

On the other hand, it can be noted that Kyiv never broke off relations with Armenia, even when there was a maximally pro-Russian environment there. In principle, speaking objectively, we maintain a dialogue with all more or less sensible countries, even with Belarus - until it has reached the frankly extreme limit in its policy. Therefore, we would not like to let Armenia go back into the fold of Russia, and this kind of contact suggests that Ukraine, seeing an opportunity to support Armenia’s drift away from Russia, is taking advantage of it. Again, to solve our problems and issues of confrontation with Russia,” the political expert noted.

According to A. Kovalenko, attention should be paid to a number of trends. In particular, in response to how Armenia is feverishly trying to replace its weapons from Russian to Western ones, in particular, information has just come out about the supply of armored vehicles from France.

“But this is very problematic. Because all Armenian weapons are unified with Russian ones. As Yerevan frantically tries to replace its weapons losses incurred during the 44-day war and 23-hour military operation in September this year, it risks acquiring an arsenal of variegated weapons, which will bring even greater problems to the Armenian military. It will be extremely difficult for the Armenian army to fight Azerbaijan with such weapons. And in this sense, this drift of Armenia is even beneficial for Azerbaijan, since previously Armenia was arming itself according to a simpler and more accessible scheme for Armenians - everything was purchased from Russia on practically open-ended loans, almost for nothing. Such a scheme will not work for Armenia with Western partners, therefore, its opportunity to restore its military potential will be significantly reduced,” noted the Ukrainian political expert.

At the same time, Kovalenko does not exclude further tactical rapprochement between Ukraine and Armenia on a number of issues. For example, it is very possible, he believes, that in the course of such a dialogue Kyiv will be able to get Armenia to stop supporting Russia in the UN votes.

“But it is important that in this game with Yerevan, Kyiv does not make those mistakes that, in my opinion, are simply unacceptable. So that, for example, there is no mistake in supporting those narratives that Yerevan relays regarding Karabakh, the territorial integrity and politics of Azerbaijan. But so far this has not happened and this can only be said as a warning. Although, it is worth considering that in Ukrainian politics, like in many others, there is an Armenian lobby, which is constantly working to ensure that the Armenian topic overlaps the Azerbaijani one in its importance in Ukrainian society. I hope that Kyiv takes all this into account in its strategy,” concluded A. Kovalenko.