Lebanon’s unfinished saga: Why Israeli troops aren't leaving yet Military experts analyze the decision

Israel's public broadcaster has revealed that the US has greenlit a "long-term" deployment of Israeli troops in southern Lebanon. Originally, under a Washington-brokered truce in November, Israeli forces were granted a 60-day window to pull out from the region, where they have been engaged in a fierce ground offensive against Hezbollah militants since early October.

As part of the agreement, Hezbollah fighters were expected to leave the area, while Lebanese troops were to be deployed in their place within the same timeframe. The initial deadline, originally set for January 26, was extended to February 18. However, a Lebanese official and a foreign diplomat based in Lebanon told Reuters on February 12 that Israel had requested to maintain five positions in the south for an additional 10 days. Subsequently, Israeli public broadcaster KAN quoted senior officials from Israel's security cabinet, stating that the US had permitted Israeli troops to remain "in a few places" in Lebanon beyond February 18.

No new deadline was provided for their withdrawal.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, February 12, Israeli warplanes broke the sound barrier over Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, for the first time since the ceasefire agreement was established. Additionally, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has reiterated his demand for the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanese territory by February 18.

These developments raise two key questions. Firstly, why does Israel require an extension for the presence of its troops in southern Lebanon? What would their continued stay achieve? Secondly, has the Lebanese side fulfilled its obligations under the truce? In other words, can it be confirmed that Hezbollah has withdrawn all its fighters from southern Lebanon and that full control over these territories has been transferred to Lebanon’s official armed forces?

Prominent Israeli analysts shared their perspectives on these issues with Caliber.Az.

Sergei Auslender, a military expert and author of a military-analytical YouTube channel, stated that the situation is quite straightforward.

"Israel needed the stay of our troops on the territory of its northern neighbour because the Lebanese side is not fulfilling the conditions. The Lebanese army is unable to take control of the southern part of their country. Hezbollah fighters are infiltrating there along with the Lebanese army. The Lebanese army does not prevent them from doing so."

According to Auslender, this is the primary reason for Israel's decision to extend the presence of its troops in Lebanon.

"They are now building five strongholds there. Apparently, they will keep under control a ridge of heights in the eastern sector of southern Lebanon — the one adjacent to the so-called Galilee Finger, where the northernmost Israeli city of Metula is located. From these heights, terrorists fired rockets at Israeli cities and towns," the military analyst explained.

This, he asserts, is why the Israeli army remains in the area.

"And as for the claim that the terrorist organization Hezbollah has withdrawn its fighters from southern Lebanon, one cannot be sure of this in principle. One can be sure of this only in one case: if the Israeli army controls southern Lebanon. That is, unfortunately, the Lebanese army and the new Lebanese authorities have failed to do so. And they will fail in the configuration they have now," Auslender believes.

Political expert and publicist Avigdor Eskin (Jerusalem) believes that the Lebanon saga is far from over for Israel.

"Let me remind you that the day after the Hamas attack in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, Hezbollah began shelling northern Israel, as a result of which eighty thousand of our citizens were forced to leave their homes. It then succeeded in dealing crushing blows to the enemy. Nevertheless, Hezbollah is arming itself again and threatening Israel. Therefore, our presence in several strategic points is necessary," the political analyst stated.

According to Eskin, the root of the issue lies in the Lebanese army's failure to take control of the southern parts of its own country.

"The agreement has not been implemented. The terrorists are now busy licking their wounds and strengthening their ranks. Things could change if there is a change within Iran or a change in Iranian policy, which has generously supported Hezbollah. The Middle East is undergoing rapid change. So we cannot assume anything with certainty for the future," Eskin noted.

Military expert David Gendelman pointed out that, according to the agreements, the Lebanese army was tasked with dismantling Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in southern Lebanon.

"Partly this has been done, partly not, so the Israeli army has already withdrawn from some areas of southern Lebanon, and in some areas it still remains. Further actions will develop according to the situation," he stated.