Russian experts: Constitutional reforms in Armenia are unavoidable Can Pashinyan navigate the road to peace?

Recently, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan addressed the nation and announced the need for a new constitution in Armenia. He stated, “The adoption of a new constitution is of paramount importance, as all the referendums conducted for the adoption of the current constitution are seen as having serious illegitimacy in the public’s perception. The strategic goal of adopting a new constitution is to transition from the residual functioning of a stateless nation to a state-formed people,” emphasizing the need for a fundamental change. Pashinyan stressed that the new constitution must be adopted through a nationwide referendum.

Earlier, Pashinyan had already revealed his political goal of adopting a new national law that would be “organically connected to the citizens of Armenia.” However, the opposition accuses him of fulfilling Azerbaijan’s demands by removing references to the Declaration of Independence from Armenia’s constitution. This document mentions the Karabakh region, which, as Pashinyan has repeatedly stated, he now recognizes unconditionally as part of Azerbaijan.

The question of constitutional reform in Armenia, in this context, holds undeniable significance. First and foremost, it matters to Azerbaijan, secondly to the security of Armenia itself, and thirdly to the prospects of a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan. However, this raises several critical questions. For example, are the current political conditions in Armenia conducive to holding a nationwide referendum on constitutional amendments? How will such a procedure affect political tensions within the country? Can one be confident that the majority of Armenian voters would vote to relinquish claims over Karabakh? What impact might the revanchist opposition have? Furthermore, how will the Armenian diaspora and nations providing military support to Armenia react?

Russian experts shared their perspectives on the matter with Caliber.Az.

Tatiana Poloskova, a Doctor of Political Science, Candidate of Philosophy, and diplomat from Russia, noted that indeed, Nikol Pashinyan had revealed his plans to hold a referendum.

She explained that the issue revolves around submitting the draft of the new constitution for a national vote. In reality, the expert notes, Pashinyan is acutely aware that, given the widespread revanchist propaganda, including in Armenia's official media, it is far from guaranteed that the majority of the population will support amendments concerning Karabakh in the revised constitution.

“So, what is actually happening? Pashinyan seeks to demonstrate to Azerbaijan and Türkiye that he might be open to recognizing Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, but he faces opposition from the people. At the same time, it is clear that since the 44-day war, Pashinyan has made little effort to reduce the widespread revanchist sentiments within society.

That said, other media assessments suggest that Armenians, generally inclined toward peaceful coexistence with neighbouring countries, may support abandoning territorial claims to Karabakh. However, I have yet to come across any public opinion polls or surveys on this topic. Consequently, I find it difficult to predict the referendum's outcome.

Meanwhile, the opposition is, as expected, accusing Pashinyan of ‘following the lead of Türkiye and Azerbaijan’ and attempting to remove the Declaration of Independence from the new constitution. It's worth noting that Armenia’s Declaration of Independence references 'Nagorno-Karabakh,' and the country's constitution includes mentions of 'reunification with Karabakh.' Pashinyan, however, has officially recognized Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. Under the current Armenian constitution, even a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia would be seen as illegitimate, as it would contradict the nation's fundamental laws and could be easily overturned by a future government. Pashinyan understands this, as does the opposing side," said the diplomat.

In her view, the current geopolitical situation leaves Pashinyan with no choice but to go ahead with the referendum.

"Otherwise, all his statements about recognizing Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan would be meaningless. And he’s not in a political position to make such a move. It’s a deadlock. If the referendum goes ahead and the people vote for the new constitution, it will only mark the beginning of the process.

It’s unclear how the Armenian parliament and opposition parties will react to such an outcome. The opposition is already actively working, including in Moscow, engaging with political support groups, not just in the diaspora, to push for early elections in the summer of 2025. They’re even inviting Russian experts and journalists. I wonder if Pashinyan knows about this?

As of now, Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan has confirmed that the request to amend the constitution came from Azerbaijan.

Armenian political analyst Suren Surenyants stated that by agreeing to change the constitution, Pashinyan is ‘turning Armenia into an aggressor state and its people into an aggressive nation. Ultimately, he plans to transform our people into an artificially created tribe.’ However, there’s no need to transform anything. The nation was created recently and is indeed artificial, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have the right to exist — just not with territorial claims on its neighbouring countries that have accepted it.

So, what happens next? The constitution will have to be amended. And the return of the occupied territories to Azerbaijan is a reality that can’t be ignored. You can’t deny reality. How Pashinyan and Armenia will handle this situation is his problem, and he will have to deal with it. And he’ll need to act fast," says Poloskova.

Russian expert and Director of the Center for Strategic Research on the South Caucasus, Evgeny Mikhaylov, pointed out that there are forces in Armenia that oppose changes to the constitution.

"One must also consider the large number of Armenians from Karabakh. They will either not vote or will vote against the amendments. It's important to take into account the current international geopolitical changes and, perhaps surprisingly, the potential return of Donald Trump to power. Armenia is currently aligned with the West, but if Russia starts to improve its relations with the US, the European Union may no longer be able to support Armenia while provoking Azerbaijan. In that case, most of the Armenian population might accept reality and vote for constitutional changes.

However, political tension in Armenia won't disappear; there’s significant turbulence. Civil unrest is a real possibility, and this must also be considered.

For Azerbaijan, the situation won't worsen. Despite the disagreements, Azerbaijan has already regained its territories. Whether a peace treaty is signed or not is no longer the key issue. Of course, such a treaty is important for regional stability, and if Armenia focuses on strengthening its statehood, it will eventually sign that treaty and amend its constitution.

If, however, political tension dominates and leads to instability, Armenia will lose international credibility," Mikhaylov argues.

He also highlights that the European Union will be focused on its own issues and already has enough problems to handle.

"The United States, under the Trump administration, is likely to pay less attention to the South Caucasus in the near future, given the administration's primary focus on the Middle East and the Pacific region.

As a result, part of the Armenian electorate may vote to abandon territorial claims to Karabakh, but revanchist sentiments will not disappear and will continue to linger.

Regarding the Armenian diaspora in Russia, I believe Moscow will ensure no interference in the constitutional amendment process in Armenia. However, there’s no guarantee that the U.S. and French diasporas will not exert influence on the situation in Yerevan.

That said, it's important to consider the position of the Trump administration on this issue. If it differs from the views of the Armenian diaspora in the U.S., Trump may, possibly in coordination with Russia, help mediate the situation to ensure Armenia makes the right choice on the constitutional amendments," Mikhaylov concludes.