Russian "Pantsir" hits Azerbaijani civilian aircraft Military experts weigh in on the tragedy

The tragedy involving the Embraer 190 aircraft of Azerbaijan Airlines, which crashed near the city of Aktau, continues to be the focus of attention for many global media outlets. As previously reported by Caliber.Az, preliminary findings of the investigation have revealed that the AZAL aircraft, en route from Baku to Grozny, was attacked on its approach to Grozny by the Russian air defence system "Pantsir-S." Furthermore, the use of Russian electronic warfare systems completely disabled the communication system of the Azerbaijani aircraft.

What do foreign experts, contacted by the Caliber.Az correspondent, think about this?

According to Belarusian military expert, retired colonel, and specialist in aviation and UAVs Leonid Spatkai, the damage to the fuselage of the Azerbaijani Embraer suggests that, due to a tragic combination of circumstances, the aircraft may have found itself in the strike zone of the Russian air defence system in Chechnya, which was firing at Ukrainian drones that had launched an attack on Grozny.

"Although the Pantsir-S air defence system is equipped with a standard guided missile with a core warhead, it is designed for larger aircraft. For drones and UAVs, there is a different weapon—a small missile, the KP TKB-1055, with a shrapnel warhead, designed to destroy smaller targets," the expert noted.

In the expert's opinion, the hits to the Azerbaijani aircraft were at the outer limits of the system's strike range, judging by the edges of the punctures.

"Of course, one can speculate about anything, and there are plenty of opinions from armchair experts. But the final results should come from an official examination. However, the fact remains—the aircraft was hit by air defence systems. Where exactly—one needs to listen to the radio exchange between the pilots and the air traffic controller. The answer is obvious: Chechnya, after several attacks by Ukrainian UAVs, recently deployed a Pantsir air defence system to protect Grozny. Therefore, the Pantsir is the most likely candidate," said Spatkai.

In his opinion, although the cause of the accidental hit on the Azerbaijani aircraft is being attributed to weather conditions, particularly fog, the fact is that military personnel usually rely on radar screens for orientation.

"Azerbaijan should perhaps consider halting flights to Russia, as almost any aircraft, by pure chance, could end up under the strike of an air defence system. The country is at war, and Ukrainian UAVs and missiles travel great distances. Nervous air defence operators might open fire at any target appearing on the radar screen," Spatkai noted.

According to Israeli military expert and author of a military-analytical YouTube channel, Sergey Auslander, the version of a collision with a UAV can be dismissed immediately: such characteristic rectangular holes resemble more the traces left by the warhead fragments of missiles, like those from the Russian Pantsir air defence system or similar anti-aircraft complexes.

"The missile, apparently, exploded near the aircraft in the air. One should ask why the aircraft followed such a strange flight path. Even if we assume that the airport in Grozny couldn't accept the aircraft due to the UAV attack, there were several airports in the region capable of handling an Embraer. For example, the airports of Nalchik and Vladikavkaz—they are small, but it is quite possible to land a passenger plane there. Also, on the direct route to Aktau, but three times closer, was the airport of Makhachkala, yet for some reason, the Azerbaijani aircraft was denied landing there. The pilot couldn't make the decision to fly to Aktau on his own, yet he ended up there. My version is that the aircraft was literally sent 'far away' (so to speak, once and for all—gone without a trace, when they realised the aircraft had been shot down due to unprofessional actions by the air defence). The assumption that Russian electronic warfare systems jammed the aircraft's avionics, leading to the tragic consequences, is also quite plausible.

Here, another question arises—why were the air traffic controllers in Grozny so negligent? Why didn't they warn the pilots about the UAV attack while they were approaching Grozny and advise them to divert to a backup airport? This was their professional duty," said Auslander.