Will Erdogan's new central visionary help to secure full victory in the elections? New elections for a new era  

On May 14, Türkiye's citizens will cast their ballots for president and parliament, and polls suggest the long-time ruler of Türkiye, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, could actually lose this time. President Erdogan’s challenger, Republican People’s Party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has assembled an ideologically diverse coalition united in its determination to oust the long-time Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Nationalist People Party (MHP) bloc. Although it is impossible to predict the outcome of these elections, the opposition is closer than ever to victory.

They have presented an Agreement for A Strengthened Parliamentary System, a constitutional amendment package aimed at a “strengthened parliamentary system”, and a Memorandum of Understanding on Common Policies. The current system in Türkiye introduced through a 2017 referendum, resulted in a consolidation of executive power and a one-man rule system. The new system enabled the ruling AKP government to alleviate all security concerns and address internal threats; it also came with some caveats.

Since 2019, Türkiye has witnessed sharply growing inflation and a worsening economic crisis, as the foreign trade deficit has reached a monthly average of $8 billion in 2022. Amid the sharp rise in global energy prices this spring following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the country’s average gross energy imports shot up from $3-4 billion per month to $7-8 billion.

As a result of the shrinking economy, the Turkish national currency lira lost nearly a quarter of its value. The ruling government's inability to deal appropriately with the looming financial crisis at an earlier stage outraged the public and stirred heated debates in the parliament.

Nevertheless, Erdogan's government is seemingly determined to cope with the issue, as the most recent data suggests that the country's inflation fell below 50%, giving limited ammunition to the government to gloat about amid a cost-of-living crisis just 11 days before a critical general election. Turkish consumer prices rose 2.39% month-on-month in April, while annual inflation eased to 43.68% from 50.651% in March 2023.

Moreover, the recent natural disasters, such as forest fires and floods in the summer of 2022 and the recent earthquakes, have shown that the relevant government agencies are woefully incapable of crisis management. The government was heavily criticised for failing to rapidly mobilise rescue teams and military units in the earthquake's aftermath. During the critical first days, the lack of trained rescue teams and heavy machinery likely contributed to thousands of unnecessary fatalities.

In this vein, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing one of his toughest election fights since coming to power twenty years ago. In pursuit of this goal, Erdogan has repaired damaged relations with Arab heavyweights over the past couple of years. One result was that, in 2021, the United Arab Emirates agreed to a $5 billion currency swap with Ankara and pledged to invest $10 billion in Türkiye’s start-ups and high-tech industry.

Also, the government successfully secured a needed cash injection from Russia, nearly $10 billion, through the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant.6 He has simultaneously kept the country open to Russians fleeing their country. These steps and booming two-way trade with Russia have likely allowed billions of dollars to flow to Türkiye.

To achieve significant results during the critical elections, the ruling government adopted a new concept dubbed “Türkiye century”. Erdogan’s campaign team has focused on promoting the Türkiye century concept by spotlighting Erdogan's national projects, emphasising major projects such as highways, dams, factories, and a revived defence industry—military fighter jets and drones in particular. The centennial visionary particularly highlights new Turkish brands, such as the national electric car project (TOGG) and the light aircraft carrier TCG Anadolu, inaugurated on April 15, 2023.

The TCG Anadolu can accommodate combat helicopters, military drones, and up to 94 vehicles, including 13 tanks. Hence, Turkish Bayraktar TB3 and Kizilelma drones and the light Hurjet fighters will be able to take off from and land on the ship.

Indeed, President Erdogan has faced serious challenges from the main opposition coalition since the local elections in 2019. The results of the elections were disastrous for the AKP government, as the vote brought 11 cities under their control, including Istanbul and the capital, Ankara. Therefore, the AKP government apprehends that the upcoming elections will not be smooth and expects results to be very close, perhaps within one or two percentage points.

Although the elections will be critical, the main opposition coalition also may face cracks. Nevertheless, the preliminary steps toward re-institutionalisation and democratisation signal a willingness to address Türkiye's most urgent domestic and foreign policy issues.