Will the Russian military base withdraw from Gyumri? Russian experts try to find the answer

Another burst of anti-Russian hysteria is picking up steam in Armenia. On January 8, a protest rally was held in Gyumri at the gates of the 102nd military base of the Russian Armed Forces. Competent Russian experts shared their opinion with Caliber.Az about the reasons for the anti-Russian protest and the probability of withdrawal of the Russian 102nd base from Gyumri, as well as the deployment of Western military bases on the territory of Armenia.

According to military publicist Vladislav Shurygin, the anti-Russian rally in Gyumri demonstrates that the Russian issue remains one of the main ones on Armenia's domestic agenda.

"For the same reason, the 'Russian card' has been continuously played for several years now, especially after Armenia lost the war with Azerbaijan in Karabakh in 2020. It is clear that in this way Yerevan is trying to shuffle off the blame for the lost war onto Russia in order to shift all the responsibility for what happened to it. Ridiculous accusations such as 'Russia did not help Armenia, did not provide arms' and so on are heard against the Russians. Amid the domestic confrontations taking place in Armenia, a clear pro-American, pro-Western political movement has taken shape, which pursues an agenda of ousting Russia from the South Caucasus region, specifically from Armenia. Therefore, they are trying to drive the Russians out of this country under the slogan that "the West will help us'.

As for Russia's reaction to all these unpleasant incidents, Moscow is likely to react very modestly. First, because there is an agreement on the presence of a Russian military base on Armenian territory, which was concluded between the two countries at the level of the leaders of Russia and Armenia, and not the crowds who are now advocating anti-Russian slogans for the expulsion of Russian troops from Gyumri. Certainly, Yerevan would like to see the Russian military in Gyumri replaced by the US, and the Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh replaced by Western peacekeepers.

Therefore, while the deployment of American military bases on Armenian territory is theoretically possible, the deployment of Western peacekeepers in the region is a difficult task. This is primarily due to the position of Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Türkiye, which are unlikely to be eager for a new Western configuration of forces in the South Caucasus. For example, Türkiye has no interest in the emergence of new forces in the region, nor is Azerbaijan interested in changing the existing format. That leaves only Georgia, which theoretically could agree to it, but I do not think it would aggravate relations with Russia over Armenia. It is important to note that from the legal point of view, without the permission and consent of Azerbaijan, any peacekeepers deployed on its territory are occupiers. That is, in any case, Baku will play a key role in this matter.

As to the withdrawal of the 102nd Russian military base from Gyumri and deployment of American troops there, I admit such a variant, taking into account the insanity of Armenian politicians, capable of anything. If Armenians want to place Americans on their territories, let them, though it is not clear what they will do there. This is first of all. Secondly, it is also an open-ended question to what extent it will suit its neighbours - Azerbaijan and Türkiye. If Baku and Ankara are dissatisfied with this fact, Yerevan together with the Americans will find itself in complete isolation. In any case, as I have already said, all these issues boil down to an intra-Armenian confrontation in which the West and the United States are heavily involved," Shurygin said.

He went on to say that Armenia's anti-Russian demarches show how seriously the agenda to oust Russia from Armenia and the region is being worked out.

"I believe that these kinds of unsanctioned rallies against Russia's policies will be held continuously, at least until the military conflict in Ukraine is over. As long as there is hope that Russia will be defeated in this war in one form or another, the protests in Armenia will increase.

However, such anti-Russian incidents will not have a strong impact on Armenian-Russian relations, because it is one thing to chatter and wave flags and post slogans, and quite another to move from something in mind to something in kind. I mean that Moscow will not react until there is forceful action against Russian troops or their representatives. On the other hand, Armenian-Russian relations have been established for quite a long time and we are not seeking to change them in any direction. Russia is a country, which strictly adheres not to neutrality, but to the policy of keeping the long-lasting conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan at least in the cold phase, and not to flare up again," Shurygin said.

In his turn, a Russian lawyer and public figure, a corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences Yanis Yuksha concluded that the anti-Russian actions in Armenia are sponsored by the West and the US.

"Western and American intelligence services have a strong interest in shattering the situation in the former Soviet Union in order to harm Russia. At all costs, the US and the West are trying to maintain their leading position and rule the world (as they see it), seeing Russia as the main problem for themselves. And this is now being done through Armenia, which is playing the role of the offender, despite the fact that it itself is directly dependent on Russia. Primarily because it is Russia that guarantees Armenia's preservation and survival as it is built as a state.

As for the withdrawal of the Russian base from Gyumri, I rule out such a possibility for the time being. Most likely, the 102nd Russian military base will remain on the territory of Armenia, no matter how much some part of the population may protest. We understand very well which way the wind blows, and that the people protesting there are just working off Soros' money. As a lawyer, I should remind you that the 'democratically' elected authorities in Armenia once signed an agreement with Russia on the deployment of the 102nd military base on their territory, following the law. Therefore, it would be reasonable for the country's leadership to take appropriate measures against those who in spite of the law grossly violate it," Yuksha summed up.

Another Russian expert and researcher Andrey Koryakovtsev briefly noted that another burst of anti-Russian hysteria proves that Pashinyan's government is a puppet of the West, a source of instability in the region, and an enemy of its people.

"We can say that these are speeches of the opposition. But they were provoked by Pashinyan's policy - the policy of provocations. But precisely because only the opposition is involved here, and not official Yerevan, there will be no reaction from Moscow or it will be implicit," Koryakovtsev said, adding that the closure of the Russian base in Armenia is not on the agenda.