Will Yerevan put words into actions regarding normalizing ties with Türkiye? Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Gurgen Arsenyan, a Member of the Armenian parliament from the ruling “Civil Contract” party said that Türkiye has never threatened Armenia.

“Russia’s military presence on the border with Türkiye is a military threat directed against Türkiye. If there is a military presence of a third party in a country and this is due to the threat from Türkiye, it should be said that Türkiye has never threatened Armenia. We have no evidence that Türkiye has ever threatened Armenia since gaining its independence”, said Arsenyan.

Therefore, he added, if Russian troops were to leave the country, Türkiye will become a “regular neighbour” to Armenia. The Armenian politician also noted, that the authorities of the republic are now going to settle relations with their neighbours on the basis of the principles of good-neighbourliness and provide opportunities for further development of the country. If these goals are achieved, the Russian military presence will become unimportant to the country.

Admittedly, this is a rare statement for an Armenian politician, especially one that represents the ruling party of Armenia. It is interesting, what is this signal and what is it aimed at? Is this statement especially against the Russian military presence in Armenia? Or does Pashinyan’s party want to convey to everyone that it really wants peace with its neighbours, but the Russian factor prevents it?

Caliber.Az posed those questions to several well-known foreign experts.

Yegor Kuroptev, Political Scientist and Director of the “Free Russia” Foundation in the South Caucasus (Tbilisi), notes that everyone in Armenia always understood that the Russian presence is not a guarantee of the republic’s security, but a force that is holding it hostage.

“As well as in all other countries, where Russia has deployed troops or supported conflicts. The development of a democratic independent Armenia is possible only after its withdrawal from under the Kremlin’s influence, which is impossible without the establishment of relations between Yerevan and Ankara and Baku. All the points voiced by the MP have been understood for a long time. The only matter now is that it was sounded in public, which was previously impossible to imagine.

Of course, the main reason is the weakening of Russia because of Ukraine’s victories, which heroically protects its home from the invaders. Regarding the matter of Armenia, the main question remains the same: whether the authorities will be able to move from words to deeds”, said Kuroptev.

It seems quite obvious to the Co-President of the Russian political party “Democratic Choice” and Senior Expert of the Gaidar Economic Development Institute (Moscow), Sergey Zhavornkov, that the Russian Federation is unwilling to help Pashinyan.

“This is officially stated by the Armenian side, speaking about ‘passivity’. As for Turkish-Armenian relations, there is a possibility of their normalization. After all, there is no territorial conflict, as with Azerbaijan. There is a question of assessing the conflict of more than a century ago, whether there was a ‘genocide’ or there were ‘problems on the ground’. The latter fact Türkiye admits itself. When it is not a matter of real control over territories, but of rhetoric about the distant past, it is easier to agree”, says the expert.