Yerevan must choose: Russia or West Russian political analyst talks about Armenian PM's upcoming visit to Moscow

The Armenian opposition members have been holding rallies in Yerevan for several days against the policy of the incumbent government on the emerging process of normalization of relations with Azerbaijan.

The rallies are held under the slogan "Saving Karabakh and Armenia". It is noteworthy that the pro-Russian opposition is also raging about Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's upcoming visit to Russia on April 19. Armenian ex-presidents fear that the prime minister will make further concessions on the Karabakh issue during the visit.

While commenting on the upcoming meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin for Caliber.Az, Russian political analyst Vasily Koltashov said that the Kremlin would put pressure on Yerevan for it to focus on close cooperation with Moscow on the one hand, and on the implementation of the secured agreements to relieve tension in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations on the other hand.

“Moscow is interested in Baku and Yerevan to stop fighting and focus on economic issues,” the analyst said. “A big war in the South Caucasus again is not favourable for Russia, which London, Washington, and Brussels are interested in.”

Koltashov stressed that Russia is interested in the development of the region, the establishment of transit, and the elimination of all mutual claims.

“Russia is also interested in Azerbaijani and Armenian nations stop hating each other and learn to live peacefully in the same region,” the analyst said. “A new war may lead to a big conflict in the Caucasus, in which Russia, Iran, and Turkey will be involved. For Azerbaijan and Armenia, this will be fraught with their territories becoming a battlefield, into a zone of clashes between these forces, into a battlefield, a zone of clashes between these forces. First of all, Russia is not interested in such events.”

As for the internal political situation in Armenia, Koltashov is convinced that one can hardly talk about a coup d'état and a change of power in Yerevan.

“Pashinyan remained in power and was able to establish balanced relations with Moscow,” he said. “This means that Armenia should not expect any internal political changes, even taking into account the fact that the society in Yerevan is strained due to the recent events in the Karabakh region.”

The ongoing developments do not hint that they would lead Pashinyan to lose power, according to Koltashov.

“Moscow is well aware that the internal Armenian political issue must be resolved through revising the public sentiment,” he explained. “People did not greatly in the previous political leaders in Armenia.”

“The reason is that those leaders have been in power for a long time and the expectations of the Armenians associated with them were much greater than the results of the work of the ruling regimes,” Koltashov explained. “That is why a certain part of the Armenian society hopes that, due to circumstances, Pashinyan will be able to lead the country out of the crisis. And Pashinyan is trying to manoeuvre on this factor.”

On its part, Moscow would like the Armenian public sentiment to be revised rather than Pashinyan to be removed from power, according to the analyst.

“Is Pashinyan capable of betraying Soros and the Americans? The Americans themselves betrayed him in 2020,” he said. “Where was the American assistance during the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020? Where? Instead, press releases, statements, and some, maybe small, donations have been made,” Koltashov said. “There were something like meetings of Armenian communities in some separate states [of the US] with the adoption of resolutions.”

The analyst stressed that was not a serious approach but the expression of public solidarity and nothing more, given Pashinyan’s expectations of other forms of support from his Western patrons.

“I think that the protests in Yerevan and in entire against the incumbent government on the eve of Pashinyan's visit to Moscow should clarify the following for the prime minister: he should choose on which path to go,” Koltashov said. “If Pashinyan has not lost power [so far], then it happened because he adhered to the right direction, that is, toward Moscow. This is the position he should continue to hold."