What did Aliyev, Michel, and Pashinyan agree on?
Details of the Brussels meeting

ANALYTICS  15 May 2023 - 09:50

On May 14, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, President of the European Council Charles Michel, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan held talks that lasted four hours.

Michel made a statement following the meeting. Here it is (no changes added):

"It was a pleasure to host President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan today for a fifth meeting in Brussels. Our exchanges were frank, open, and result-oriented. They focused on progress on the path towards Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization. The leaders shared a common willingness for a South Caucasus at peace. I commend their respective efforts. Together, we reviewed all issues on our agenda.

Following the recent positive talks held in the United States on the peace treaty, the momentum should be maintained to take decisive steps towards the signing of a comprehensive peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

On border issues, we reviewed progress and the next steps regarding the delimitation of the border. In this context, the leaders agreed on the resumption of the bilateral meetings on border issues. The leaders confirmed their unequivocal commitment to the 1991 Almaty Declaration and the respective territorial integrity of Armenia (29,800 km2) and Azerbaijan (86,600 km2). The ultimate delimitation of the border will be agreed through negotiations.

On connectivity, the sides made clear progress in their discussions aimed at unblocking transport and economic links in the region. Positions on this topic have now come very close to each other in particular on the reopening of the railway connections to and via Nakhchivan. Their respective teams have been tasked to finalise an in-principle agreement on the modalities for the opening of the railway connections and the necessary construction works together with a concrete timetable. They also agreed to draw upon the support of the World Customs Organization in supporting this work.

On humanitarian issues, there has been an understanding that further detainees would be released in the coming weeks. I also stressed the need to safeguard the mutual understanding that soldiers who have simply got lost and crossed to the other side would continue to be released through a speedy procedure. We also discussed the importance of stepping up work on addressing the fate of missing persons and on demining.

We continued our exchanges on the issue of the rights and security of Armenians living in the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast. I encouraged Azerbaijan to engage in developing a positive agenda with the aim of guaranteeing the rights and security of this population, in close cooperation with the international community. I also raised the need for a transparent and constructive dialogue between Baku and this population.

I believe that it is important to refrain from hostile rhetoric, engage in good faith and show leadership to reach mutually-acceptable solutions.

The EU has no hidden agenda. Our sole aim is to help Armenia and Azerbaijan reach a comprehensive and fair peace. We are ready to contribute to their joint efforts. We have agreed to hold the Brussels meetings as often as necessary. Leaders will meet again in Brussels in July. And as was already announced publicly, we will also meet again in the very near future together with President Macron of France and Chancellor Scholz of Germany on the margins of the 2nd European Political Community Summit in Chișinău. I also intend to invite the leaders for another such meeting in the margins of the third EPC summit in Granada in October."

First, the Brussels format of talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia has been restored. The difficulties that had arisen in the functioning of this mechanism after the Prague meeting, caused by France's active intervention and Armenia's insistence on Paris's participation in the dialogue, have been successfully overcome. Azerbaijan, which had obstructed the idea of quadrilateral talks with the participation of France, forced Nikol Pashinyan to abandon this demand and return to the usual trilateral negotiation scheme.

The main agenda of yesterday's meeting in Brussels was the normalisation of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, unconditional recognition of each other's territorial integrity, progress in signing a peace agreement, opening of communications, as well as solution of humanitarian issues, particularly the problem of mine terror and the fate of the missing persons. It should be especially noted that the issue of the Lachin road was not even discussed. This is, in fact, logical, given that the sides recognise each other's territorial integrity.

Michel also said that during the meeting there was an exchange of views "on the rights and security of Armenians living in the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast". Baku has never rejected dialogue with its citizens in the Karabakh region. However, it has always been stressed that it is exclusively an internal affair of Azerbaijan.

Judging by Michel's statement, an exchange of detainees is expected in the coming weeks. Here it is worth noting that Azerbaijan insists on a two-for-two exchange (i.e. two of our military for two Armenian military). Other options such as "all for all" are out of the question for Baku.

Azerbaijan, which views the Brussels format positively, sees no bias in it. Relations between the EU and Azerbaijan remain consistently positive, with only interference by France introducing unnecessary dissonance. It is also important that in this format President of the European Council Charles Michel is not a mediator, but rather a supporter of the dialogue process.

In the meantime, the influence of Paris in the EU has diminished considerably in light of serious internal challenges (including mass protests) and foreign policy failures (especially on the African continent).

As for the expected meeting in Chisinau on the margins of the European Political Community Summit between Aliyev, Pashinyan, Michel, Macron, and Scholz, it is not a well-established format. Rather, it is an informal meeting on the margins of the event, one of many.

Furthermore, the participation of Germany, which has always demonstrated a fairly clear position on Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, based on the principles of international law and respect for Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, together with the friendly relations between Baku and Berlin, makes Macron's influence at the forthcoming meeting less significant. Germany, which is well aware of the situation, realises that French meddling could have a negative impact on the fragile peace process.

P.S. Meanwhile, immediately after the trilateral meeting ended, the Armenian side fired mortars at Azerbaijani positions.

Caliber.Az