ATACMS for Ukraine Winning the war against Russia

Recently, the Western media reported that the United States (US) has secretly delivered long-range MGM-14 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to Ukraine, enhancing Kyiv's military capabilities against Russian forces. Even though the Biden administration had previously refused to send lethal weapons, the government secretly approved the transfer of the long-range ATACMS missiles in February 2024 for use inside Ukrainian territory.

The ATACMS missiles were then quietly included in the $300 million aid package announced on March 12, 2024, and ultimately delivered to Ukraine earlier this month. Ukraine has been asking for ATACMS since Russia invaded in February 2022. The missiles’ range would allow Ukraine to strike key supply lines in Crimea or, possibly, will enable them to hit Russian lines from further inside Ukraine. With the ATACMS, Ukraine could theoretically strike Moscow from Ukrainian territory—one reason the Kremlin in 2022 said awarding ATACMS to Ukraine was a red line.

Therefore, Washington had long been reluctant to provide Ukraine with the longer-range weapon amid concerns they could be used on targets deep inside Russian territory and provoke a greater reaction from Moscow. However, the long-delayed process of ATACMS delivery could be less effective compared to a few months earlier. As such, ATACMS could barely change the war's outcome as Russia swiftly compensates for its military losses on the ground while Ukraine faces a lack of ammunition. In early April, Ukraine began using long-range missiles, bombing a Russian military airfield in Crimea last week and Russian forces in another occupied area in recent days.

Both cluster munitions and a high explosive unitary warhead can be used effectively by Ukrainian forces to strike entire Russian command and control elements in eastern Ukraine and inside Russian territories. The reports regarding ATACMS came amid the US's most recent decision to allocate the next military aid to Ukraine worth $61 billion.

Nevertheless, the delay in US funding and weapons deliveries has given Russia the space to push its advantage in firepower and personnel to step up attacks across the front line in eastern Ukraine, where it claims to have taken control of several settlements this month. It has increasingly used satellite-guided gliding bombs – dropped from planes at a safe distance – to pummel Ukrainian forces.

Since February 2024, Russian forces have made significant advances in a narrow corridor in eastern Ukraine, as Moscow's offensive to take territory before Western military aid arrives appears to be gathering pace. After the presidential elections in March 2024, Russia will launch a new large-scale offensive in late May or June. After the initial blitzkrieg failed in 2022, Russia has sought to grind down Ukraine by favouring quantity over quality on the battlefield.

Despite Moscow’s advantage in firepower and personnel, a massive ground offensive would be risky and unnecessary if Russia could stick to smaller attacks across the front line to drain the Ukrainian military further. The independent military experts confirm that Kyiv is quite behind on effectively entrenching across the front and that Ukraine does not have good secondary lines. For the time being, this nibbling remains far from the gains made by Kyiv in autumn 2022, when Ukrainian forces recaptured 12,000 km2 of their territory in the Kharkiv region in the north-east of the country and forced the Russians to evacuate the right bank of the Dnipro river.

The renewed maps show that the centre of Ocheretyne, including the railway station, is in Russian hands. Ukraine is also losing ground in the neighbouring village of Novobakhmutivka, immediately to the south. Notably, in Novobakhmutivka, Russia made progress, advancing up to 400 meters in depth. Previously, the Russian forces controlled only the south-eastern part of the village, but now they control almost 3/4 of the village.

With the supply of ATACMS, Kyiv seeks to shift the balance of power in the front while Russia boosts the defence industry to counter Western supplies. Nevertheless, the arms race amid the brutal war is not in favor of Ukraine.