Final say on resuming Russia-Georgia-Armenia railway rests with Tbilisi Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili believes that Russia will reopen the railway through Abkhazia. She told this to the newspaper Ukrainska Pravda. "Russia felt there was some room for manoeuvre and they are now probing the ground - this is a very typical Russian tactic. They are losing the war. In my opinion, they have already lost for many reasons - political, psychological, and international. They haven't completely lost militarily yet but that is what is going to happen. There is no other way out of this situation. Sensing this they simultaneously receive ambiguous, to put it mildly, signals from the Georgian authorities. And now they are probing how far they can go," Zourabichvili said.

According to her, Russia is prompted to act by the lack of showing sufficient firmness and determination. "I understand that Georgia is occupied and cannot pursue a policy of confrontation on its own, but it has to be very determined. And any lack of determination encourages Russia to try to test how far it can go. And this is what we are seeing. So, they have tried these flights. Now they are probably going to try the railways. They're going to try other things. And I think it is very important that we demonstrate our determination.

I will certainly oppose, as I have done in the past. I have no actual executive power to stop any of these decisions. But I have stronger power that was given to me by the people, not by some individuals in the government there, and I know that I represent the will of the majority of the Georgian people. And no one should try to play with the Georgian people," said the president.

The Russia-Georgia-Armenia railway, which runs through Abkhazia, has not functioned since the 1992-1993 conflict.

How high is the likelihood that Moscow will begin to put pressure on the Georgian government to agree to restore traffic on the road through occupied Abkhazia? How can the Georgian Cabinet of Ministers behave in this situation, given that the majority of people in the country are against any kind of cooperation with Russia, and Georgia itself officially continues to apply for membership in NATO and the EU? And what is this road for Russia? Yes, it will connect it with Armenia, but is that only its main goal in this case? Or is it looking for exits through it further - to Iran, Türkiye?

Georgian analysts shared their thoughts on the matter with Caliber.Az.

Leading expert of the Georgian Foundation for International and Strategic Studies, Ambassador Giorgi Badridze remarked that the Georgian government has long been dangerously balancing its flirtation with Russia.

"This occasionally causes resentment in Georgian society and frustration on the part of our Western partners. But there is a boundary beyond which people's discontent will escalate into protests on such a scale that they can destabilise the situation. The restoration of the railway link through Abkhazia, I believe, could be just the crossing of such a line," the diplomat said.

Kakha Gogolashvili, political scientist and director of the Rondeli Foundation Centre for European Studies (GFSIS), believes that Russia intends to fill a gap in the logistical chain that has arisen as a result of restrictive measures by the EU.

"Moscow's pressure on the Georgian government for this purpose appears to be already underway. However, despite the overall economic attractiveness of restoring such a railway connection for Georgia, it carries serious political risks and challenges to its security," said Gogolashvili.

According to the director of the centre, this road implies the restoration of railway transport links not only between Russia and Armenia but also with Iran, practically turning Georgia into a transport bridge between the two countries, which are under Western sanctions.

"This state of affairs is fraught with the loss of Georgia's prospect of becoming part of the European Union. And besides, we should not forget that an open road through Abkhazia could be used by Russia to invade Georgia if it has such a goal," said the head of the Rondeli Foundation.

"The issue of the railway through Abkhazia, as far as I know, has not been discussed yet," Head of the School of International Relations of the Georgian Institute of Public Affairs, Professor Tornike Sharashenidze said in turn. - We used to consider this issue as a serious headache because it could complicate our relations with Azerbaijan because then Russia would have an opportunity to supply Armenia by this railway.

But now, after the Second Karabakh War, such a problem between Baku and Tbilisi would probably not arise if this road opens, Sharashenidze suggests.

"However, I think that this road will not be opened anyway, because for us the only acceptable condition for this will be only if our customs officers stand on the Psou river - this is the border of Russia with Georgia (with its occupied Abkhazia). Will the self-proclaimed Sukhumi authorities agree to this? Probably not.

That is, if legally everything looks normal, if Georgian customs officers stand on the Psou and not on the Inguri River, which separates Abkhazia from the rest of the country, then we can still talk about this topic. But I think that the separatist authorities of Abkhazia will not be able to make such a serious concession because this would mean recognition of the territorial integrity of Georgia on their part," Sharashenidze concluded.