Georgia's pro-European protests to fade away as majority backs ruling party Expert insights

The year 2025 has come, and at the very least, Georgia's neighbours are keenly interested in one issue. What lies ahead for the political situation in this country, which is so important to us? 

The crisis is still ongoing. A few days ago, on December 29, during the inauguration of Georgia's new President Mikheil Kavelashvili in the parliament, outgoing president Salome Zourabichvili addressed people in front of the Orbeliani Palace.

She stated that the only source of legitimacy is the nation, and for this reason, she carries that legitimacy with her. Zourabichvili announced her decision to leave the Orbeliani Palace and continue her work as the only legitimate institution in the country. 

"I take my legitimacy with me, I take the flag with me, I take with me the trust you have placed in me," Zourabichvili said. But what comes next?

Zourabichvili has already left the presidential palace, and she has no longer any tools to influence the current government. There are only protests, but their scale and activity are by no means dependent on Zourabichvili's will. It remains unclear when and how they will come to an end. The ex-president has no means, including any leverage over the Central Election Commission of Georgia, to annul the previous elections and call for new parliamentary ones – at least, neither the president, the prime minister, nor Parliament have shown any intention to do so. So, what will happen next?

Well-known Georgian political analysts shared their perspectives on the situation with Caliber.Az.

Political science professor and Georgian honoured journalist Badri Nachkebia has said that indeed, on December 29, 2024, many experts and representatives from various segments of Georgian society were expecting certain measures to be taken. 

"What were these measures expected to be? Most likely, they would have involved continuing the process of defying the authorities and boycotting the results of the parliamentary elections. However, one of the main reasons I can point to is that Zourabichvili's activity and claims to leadership as president were effectively removed. The reaction to her speech on December 29 from her supporters and certain political parties was very limited," he said.

“The fact is that a very strong position was taken by the Georgian government, whereby the parties that received more than 1 per cent of the votes in the recent elections gained the right to certain state funding. At the very least, many parties announced their willingness to regularly accept this funding. According to Georgian law, this is entirely legitimate, and the ruling party took advantage of the situation—interpreting the agreement to receive state funds as a sign of legitimizing its existence and the legitimacy of the parliamentary elections,” the professor said.

Nachkebia does not rule out that, amid the squabbles between many leaders and active opposition members over this issue, the population is indifferent toward the ongoing processes.

"Another key factor, I think, was the audience before which President Salome Zourabichvili spoke on December 29—these numbers shocked many. There were about 2,000 people present, whereas in the past, the opposition had been able to gather much bigger crowds," he said. 

Nachkebia noted that the fact that this happened at such a crucial moment further confirms that Zourabichvili was only verbally supported by the main opposition parties, while in practice, they did not offer her full or decisive backing. This was one of the reasons why she left the presidential palace.

“We are now effectively entering the period of the second Rubicon. This is the expected reaction following the inauguration of new US President Donald Trump. Both sides are indeed awaiting this. Without going into details, I can say that after this period, some clarity is likely to emerge regarding the political challenges that  Georgia and its people will face moving forward," he added.

Political analyst and founder of the SIKHA Foundation research institute Archil Sikharulidze noted in turn that while protests are still ongoing, very few people are actually participating in them. 

"There are party members and certain radical individuals involved. It seems to me that the latest protests are showing the difference: one thing is discontent, and another is what can be called pro-European fanaticism," he said.

"This fanaticism lacks support. Without her position as president, Zourabichvili seems to have no influence. Her statements about travelling to the districts, to put it mildly, are laughable," Sikharulidze said.

"Zourabichvili has no influence in the districts at all. Her only role was in the centre of Tbilisi for Western media. Without the support of the Western press and without her presidential status, she cannot accomplish anything. In my opinion, she has no political future," he said.  

Sikharulidze noted that the goal of the currently small-scale protests is, once again, to create an image for the West.

"First and foremost, because these snapshots are turned into collages, sent to the West, and then used to demand action, claiming that the Georgian people are fighting for their bright future because from now on, these people will no longer go out to protests," he stressed. 

"So, what's the point for the West to impose sanctions or take any further actions? Those in the West who support the opposition need this image to sell it and explain why they make certain statements or impose sanctions against someone," he said.

"Therefore, these protests will continue, but it is clear that they will lead to nothing. The Georgian Dream is firmly standing its ground. The majority of the population does not support such radicalism and the extreme approach to Europeanization. Sooner or later, all of this will simply come to an end," Siharulidze added.