How will Washington meeting revitalize US influence in Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process? Exchanging peace moderators

On May 1, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan arrived in Washington for the next round of peace negotiations moderated by the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and by the US President National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Unlike previous meetings, this time, the parties' negotiations lasted for five days and raised hopes that Baku and Yerevan are seriously aimed at taking tangible steps toward the final peace agreement. On May 5, Jake Sullivan and Secretary Blinken positively assessed the bilateral meeting in Washington, referring to the necessity of durable peace to unblock opportunities for the entire region.

Shortly after the meeting, the two countries put out identical statements following the talks, saying they had laid out their positions on normalization. "The Ministers and their teams advanced mutual understanding on some articles of the draft bilateral Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations," the statements said.

The meeting in Washington between Azerbaijan and Armenia was scheduled during the meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on the sidelines of the Munich Conference in February 2023. In Munich, Anthony Blinken reiterated the US efforts to play a greater role in the peace process, while Russia has cautiously watched the growing Western involvement in the peace process.

Therefore, the recent meeting in Washington can be seen as the US' continuous involvement in the process. Undoubtedly, the ministerial meeting in Washington was preparatory for the next potential Aliyev-Pashinyan meeting in Washington. However, the leader's meeting will first occur in Moscow in line with old tradition, as Moscow emphasizes that it is still the main stakeholder in the peace process between Baku and Yerevan.

The upcoming Moscow meeting would offer some solutions to specific problems between the warring parties, such as armed incidents, the new security checkpoint on the Lachin road, and the withdrawal of Armenian armed groups in Karabakh. Nevertheless, given the current state of bilateral rhetoric, it would be arduous.

The US growing involvement in the peace process occurred at a time when the European Union's (EU) influence was gradually decreasing. The EU has long been playing a crucial role in the peace process by offering a discussion platform on ministerial and leadership levels in Brussels. However, the Brussels format lasted only briefly due to some individual EU members' inaccurate or biased approach toward Azerbaijan, which de-motivated Baku to continue its engagement with the format. Moreover, the Brussels format got muted support from the US, as it seemed vitally important to tackle the Russian influence in the peace process.

Therefore, the US's assertive approach to the Baku-Yerevan peace negotiations is an attempt to compensate for the EU's waning influence. Although Blinken positively assessed the recent meeting, signing any document was unlikely. Any document in Washington would outrage the Armenian opposition groups, which warned the Pashinyan government to abstain from signing any agreement with Baku.

On the other hand, President Joe Biden seemingly is keen to achieve a breakthrough in the peace process between Baku and Yerevan ahead of the presidential elections. A positive outcome of the US moderation would be an additional asset for Joe Biden’s campaign, as the current president is struggling with extremely low approval ratings.

The recent ministerial meeting was the longest between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which is a sign that the US is keen to engage with the region more in contrast to previous years when Russia was acknowledged as the main regional power by the West. Indeed, such an attitude gave Russia more leverage over the regional process and enabled it to secure a truce in November 2020.

However, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the current geopolitical realities shifted the Western stance towards the strategically vital South Caucasus region, though it boosted Russia's fears about the US expansion. Moreover, the growing US involvement in the peace process will likely neglect the Western countries' calls to "revive the OSCE Minsk Group peace negotiations format,” which collapsed right after the second Karabakh war in 2020. Therefore, the US re-engagement with the process may foster peace talks and establish a new negotiation format to reach final peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia.