Iran's pivotal presidential runoff: Pezeshkian vs. Jalili A new political era after Raisi’s death?

Azerbaijan's southern neighbor heads to the second round of its snap presidential vote on July 5, with Massoud Pezeshkian and Saeed Jalili, the two candidates who garnered the highest number of votes in the first round. The author aims to explore the prevailing trends influencing future developments in Iran and examines the potential for substantial changes to tackle pressing national issues and avert further tragedies in the country and the region.

The tragic death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has unexpectedly altered the political landscape in Iran and surrounding regions. Among the new presidential candidates, the inclusion of ethnic Azerbaijani Massoud Pezeshkian has added an intriguing twist to the country's typically theocratic political developments.

@ulduz.q.g #prezident_pezeşkiyan #prezident #təbrzli_prezident ♬ orijinal ses - Ulduz Qaragözlü

Pezeshkian's admission: A progressive milestone

The admission of Massoud Pezeshkian, an ethnic Azerbaijani Turk, known for his reformist stance and pride in his ethnic identity, to the June 28 snap presidential polls was a progressive event, regardless of the underlying motives. However, a significant portion of the Iranian population remains skeptical about the electoral process, believing that results are often falsified. Consequently, many choose not to participate in the voting.

A segment of ethnic Persian voters seeking freedom might cast their ballots for Pezeshkian in the second round on July 5, but the nationalist Persian majority, along with other candidates united against him, presents a formidable challenge. Despite these obstacles, some experts maintain hope that Pezeshkian’s election could breathe new life into Iran's political scene, improve relations with Türkiye and Azerbaijan, and soften tensions with the West.

Internal tensions & ethnic rights

Iran’s ethnic minorities are deprived of their rights to read and write in their mother tongues, develop their culture, and exercise local self-government, leading to significant internal tension. Pezeshkian could potentially ease these issues. His election rally in Tabriz, featuring Rashid Behbudov's song "My Azerbaijan," was politically significant and resonated deeply with many social media users and commentators in Azerbaijan.

The dominant opinion is that the Supreme Leader's decision will be crucial, in determining whether Iran embarks on a path of reform or continues its revolution and bloody conflicts. As of today, the first round of the snap presidential polls is over, with two front-runners preparing for the final round on July 5.

@bbcnewsazeri Təbrizdə prezidentliyə namizədlə görüşdə "Azərbaycanım" mahnısı #xeberler #musiqi #tebriz ♬ original sound - BBC News Azərbaycanca

The conservative unification scenario

The presidential election results in Iran will be decided in the second round, following the "unification of conservatives" scenario. Among the conservatives, the rise of Saeed Jalili over Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf is particularly noteworthy. Before the election, two candidates withdrew in favor of Qalibaf, who was seen as a more loyal figure by various factions. However, Qalibaf’s 3 million votes compared to Jalili’s 9 million votes raise doubts, especially since pre-election polls showed Qalibaf ahead. It appears that the path was cleared for Jalili, who is closer to the religious leader and supported by Raisi's government.

Pezeshkian, who garnered over 10 million votes in the first round, faces an uncertain future in the second round. Logically, conservative votes, including those from Qalibaf supporters, should go to Jalili. However, given that election outcomes in Iran are not solely determined by ballots, Jalili’s chances of becoming the new president increase.

Strategic shifts and foreign relations

This election battle is more than just a race for the presidency; it reflects the internal struggles within the conservative wing. Pundits believe that Iranian elections have historically been influenced by foreign power centers. Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Iran has oscillated between the `Neither East nor West’ strategy and other strategic shifts.

Over recent years, Iran's strategic focus has shifted multiple times. After the 2018 annulment of the P5+1 nuclear agreement by President Trump, Iran re-adopted its `Look East’ strategy, improving relations with Russia and China. This led to the conservative Ebrahim Raisi's rise to power in 2021. However, with Raisi’s unexpected death, Iran finds itself at a crossroads.

Iran's strained relations with Israel and uncertain support from China leave it with few allies apart from Russia. With Trump potentially returning to power in the US, Iran faces heightened tensions with Israel and the possibility of war. In this context, Iran needs to adopt promising policies that suggest power could shift to reformers. This is why Massoud Pezeshkian, known for his reformist leanings and ethnic Azerbaijani background, has emerged as a favored candidate in the snap elections.

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A chance for reform and integration

If Iran wants to ease relations with the West, Pezeshkian appears to be the best choice. His potential presidency offers a glimmer of hope for those advocating for more rights and reforms. Additionally, his ethnic background and regional knowledge could foster better integration with the Turkic world and strengthen regional relations.

The second round of the snap presidential elections on July 5 will be crucial in determining Iran's future. The outcome will not only decide the next president but also indicate whether Iran is ready for reform or will continue along its current path of internal conflict and external tensions. The stakes are high, and the decision will significantly impact Iran's political landscape and its relations with the broader world.

Conclusion: The path forward

As Iran approaches the second round of its snap presidential elections, the political landscape is charged with uncertainty and potential. Massoud Pezeshkian represents a possibility for reform and a new direction in Iran’s domestic and foreign policies. The upcoming election will be a decisive moment, determining whether Iran can pivot towards a more open and integrated future or remain entrenched in its current theocratic and conservative framework. The world watches with bated breath as the political drama in Iran unfolds, with implications that could resonate far beyond its borders.