Mediation in Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations: Who will be in charge? Tkachenko and Tasits on Caliber.Az

Moscow is ready to organize a trilateral meeting of the Russian, Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in the near future, Spokesperson for Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova has said.

She noted that Russia welcomes any contacts between Yerevan and Baku that could relieve tensions. Zakharova added that the agreements between the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia are a “road map” for the normalization of relations.

"We proceed from the fact that the road map for the normalization of bilateral relations remains a set of trilateral agreements that were adopted in the period from 2020 to 2022. It includes the signing of a peace treaty between the two countries, unblocking economic and transport ties in the South Caucasus," she said.

This is an interesting point, especially against the backdrop of the observed weakening of EU mediation in the negotiation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan. After all, two meetings at the level of leaders of the two countries planned last month in Europe did not take place.

Is it possible in such a situation for a kind of departure from Western moderation and mediation and the transfer of such powers to Moscow? Who could be beneficiaries apart from the Kremlin itself?

Foreign experts respond these questions of Caliber.Az.

Russian political expert, Doctor of Economics, professor at St. Petersburg State University Stanislav Tkachenko said that Russia’s position regarding its role in resolving the conflict in the South Caucasus was formed in November 2020 and has not yet undergone fundamental changes.

"Moscow notes with satisfaction the completion of the military phase of the confrontation between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Karabakh; its transition to the full control of Baku corresponds to Russia’s long-standing position. It is difficult to say whether Moscow foresaw the almost complete exodus of the Armenian population from Karabakh, but it has already taken place and this is another geopolitical reality of our time.

"Under the current circumstances, Russia considers it necessary to build an international legal system in the South Caucasus region based on the goodwill of the parties and respect for their sovereignty. For Moscow, the latter is expressed in non-interference in the internal affairs of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia on the part of extra-regional powers, for example, the USA or EU countries.

"On the other hand, only in case of voluntary approval of the entire set of agreements required for the upcoming peaceful period in the history of the South Caucasus, their provisions will be respected by all parties and diplomatic, economic and cultural ties will develop on their basis. Therefore, Russian diplomacy does not rush the parties to the conflict, striving to create conditions under which cooperation will become uncontested and conflicts will become a thing of the past,” says the professor.

In his opinion, the experience of Azerbaijani-Armenian negotiations, starting from the first half of the 1990s, shows that the two sides require a mediator, with the help of which information flows between Baku and Yerevan are accelerated, and the draft proposed agreements are not perceived as “the proposal of the other side”, but an idea put forward by an independent third party.

“Today Russia is well suited for such a role. Armenia is its military-political ally, the two states cooperate within the framework of the CSTO and the EAEU. Relations between Moscow and Baku since Heydar Aliyev's return to power in June 1993 have been characterized by stability and mutual trust. That is, Russia is well suited for the mission of a mediator in negotiations.

“The same cannot be said today about the other two candidates for this role: the European Union and the United States. Brussels and Washington have proven their inefficiency by working for three decades within the OSCE Minsk Group. As a rule, they took a position beneficial to one of the parties to the conflict (Armenia), and after the current phase of the conflict between Russia and the ‘collective West’ began in 2014, they spent more energy on neutralizing Russia’s influence in the region than on actually resolving the conflict. Washington is extremely distrustful of relations between Armenia and Iran, and its interpretation of the final phase of the Karabakh conflict in September 2023 does not suit Baku and brings tension to bilateral relations,” Tkachenko noted.

Internal political processes in Armenia in the fall of 2023 are perceived in Moscow with increasing irritation, he adds.

“The need to accept defeat in Karabakh is not recognized by Yerevan, there are active and clumsy attempts to make Russia responsible for the departure of the Armenian population from the region. The Kremlin, naturally, does not agree with this interpretation of events and is patiently waiting for now whether Yerevan will decide to further stir up anti-Russian rhetoric or abandon it and return to the usual negotiating style of communication with Russia. In this matter, everything is in the hands of Pashinyan and his team.

“Therefore, it should be concluded that Moscow today has a good position to return to the role of mediator in negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. At the same time, she is not in a hurry and does not rush the parties to the conflict, waiting for the atmosphere to mature for a final legal settlement and the return of peace to the South Caucasus,” Tkachenko believes.

As Russian expert on the South Caucasus Konstantin Tasits said in turn, from his point of view, it is unlikely that Armenia and Azerbaijan will completely abandon the mediation of the United States and the EU.

“The West is an important economic and political partner for both republics. The parties have also not yet officially abandoned negotiations at the Moscow site. In addition, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev voiced the initiative to negotiate with Armenia on a bilateral basis without intermediaries, for example, in Tbilisi,” the expert noted.