Polite Azerbaijan, vague Ukraine and confused France Weekly review on Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az has prepared another episode of the “Events” show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev about the main news of the week related to Azerbaijan and other countries.

AZERBAIJAN – ARMENIA

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov visited Washington to participate in the NATO’s 75th Anniversary Summit. A trilateral meeting was held among Bayramov, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of the summit.

One could hardly expect any results from this meeting. Blinken, contrary to the tradition of bilateral negotiations, did not leave the representatives of Azerbaijan and Armenia alone, as the leaders of Germany and Kazakhstan did.

Blinken held negotiations with the foreign ministers as if Washington is a mediator.

Proceeding from the limited composition of the delegations, the short duration and slight reaction of both the Azerbaijani and Armenian media outlets, this was an ordinary protocol meeting, which the representatives of Azerbaijan attended not to offend the host of the event.

The Americans in this event are only the hosts of the event. The US does not play a leading role here.

Proceeding from Washington’s recent actions, there is an attempt to put pressure on Baku to achieve softer conditions for signing a peace treaty with Yerevan, in particular, the rejection of demands for changing the Armenian constitution, as well as the return of Azerbaijani refugees to Armenia.

The US activity in the negotiations coincides with the US attempts to threaten Azerbaijan with the sanctions for the voluntary leaving of Armenians from Karabakh.

The statement made by USAID Administrator Samantha Power in Yerevan that “the events in Karabakh are being studied at the level of the US Department of State” can be mentioned as an example.

The fact that these words were voiced after the meeting in Washington shows that Baku did not retreat from its positions, and participation in the trilateral meeting was just an act of politeness.

Meanwhile, Baku continues strengthening relations with friends. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev made a state visit to Islamabad, where he met with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif  one-on-one and then in an expanded format.

Following these meetings, the leaders of the two countries held a joint press conference.

The sides agreed to expand bilateral trade, discussed joint cooperation in energy, infrastructure, communications, defence industry.

The sides also noted the importance of joint investments, including an initial investment of $2 billion in mutually beneficial projects. In total, 15 documents were signed during President Aliyev’s visit to Pakistan.

President Aliyev once again expressed support for Pakistan on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir.

This is the second meeting of the two leaders during the last few days. A trilateral meeting of the leaders of Azerbaijan, Türkiye and Pakistan was held on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Astana a week ago.

Such frequent meetings show the strong commitment of Azerbaijan and Pakistan to strengthening the strategic partnership. Now this partnership will have a powerful economic base.

President Aliyev has recently received OSCE Secretary General Helga Maria Schmid.

During the meeting, the sides exchanged the views on the regional peace agenda. President Aliyev emphasised Azerbaijan’s commitment to the peace agenda and noted that to sign a peace treaty, it is important to change the Constitution of Armenia and thereby eliminate territorial claims against Azerbaijan.

This is another confirmation that Baku has not retreated from its position.

UKRAINE RUSSIA

There were no significant changes on the Ukrainian front. The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue repelling attacks by the Russian army.

In general, there is a slow progress of Russians, in particular in Toretsk town of the Donetsk region.

Last week, the Russian army stroke targets in Kyiv, killing 33 people, including several children.

One of the missiles hit Okhmatdyt children's hospital, killing two people. The Russian side claims that this was a provocation, and that they were hitting only military targets, while a Ukrainian missile hit the hospital.

In any case, the attack was a blow to speculation about a truce expected in the near future. Several targets attacked in Kyiv showed a weakening of the air defence system protecting the city. The Ukrainians have no ammunition in this direction. The West is in no hurry to send weapons.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke about the need to strengthen Ukrainian air defence systems at the anniversary NATO summit in Washington.

The response was a promise from NATO to provide Kyiv with five air defence systems. Over the next year, Kyiv will receive 40 billion euros in military aid, as well as F-16 fighter jets.

Moreover, the US president announced another package of military assistance to Kyiv in the amount of $225 million. President Zelenskyy sought permission to strike the Russian territory by the US weapons, but Biden banned this.

Russia was again described as "biggest and most immediate threat" while China as Russia's "most important accomplice". Ukraine did not receive a formal invitation to join the alliance, but its path to NATO was said to be “irreversible”.

Many people perceive this as the NATO's first clear promise to accept Ukraine. However, for Ukrainians the more pressing question is when this will happen.

This formulation most likely serves as a fixation of the West’s negotiations for Russia, which has once again put forward a demand for the neutral status of Ukraine.

So, the war is not cancelled, the assistance will still be rendered to Ukraine to hold the front line, but without hope of a real breakthrough.

There is a pressing question. What will happen to the energy system of Ukraine? Russia’s attacks on it may paralyze Kyiv’s ability to resist.

Perhaps the Western partners promised Kyiv some antidote, but, at least for now, the general public knows nothing about it.

US

While inviting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the podium, US President Joe Biden called him “President Putin”.

So, the issue of aid to Ukraine is secondary compared to the US presidential election and there are some doubts about Biden's ability to be a presidential candidate.

There are growing calls in the Democratic camp for Biden to withdraw his candidacy. Biden invariably responds that he will continue the presidential campaign.

We see not only the political drama of America, but also the personal drama of a man whose name is Joseph Biden striving for power.

MIDDLE EAST

The Israeli army continues its operation in Rafah and other parts of the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah does not stop shelling northern Israel while Israel, in turn, attacked the Syrian port where Iranian ships were unloading apparently with another military cargo for Hezbollah.

Negotiations on a deal with Hamas continue. According to some sources, Hamas is now more ready than ever for a deal, as it is very concerned about the affairs and does not believe in victory over Israel.

US President Joe Biden announced through X that Israel and Hamas movement had agreed on the principles of establishing a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

“There is still work to be done, these are complex issues, but the principles have been agreed upon by Israel and Hamas. My team is making progress, and I am committed to seeing this through,” the US leader said.

The details of the deal, if it does not fall through, will become known soon. One thing is clear. The White House will do everything possible for the truce to be achieved and to last at least until the elections in November.

FRANCE

The second round of parliamentary elections was held in France on July 7, the results of which seemed to surprise everyone.

The left-wing coalition “New Popular Front”, led by the eccentric Jean-Luc Mélenchon, uniting communists, social democrats and “greens”, received the biggest number of votes – 182.

The centrist coalition of French incumbent President Emmanuel Macron, “Together for the Republic” ranked second (168) while the right-wing National Rally party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella ranked third (143).

The conservatives from the Republican party followed them. No one was able to get an absolute majority of votes.

The New Popular Front, before the elections, instructed all its candidates who took third place to withdraw from the race and allow the centrist to receive the votes of all opponents of the far right.

The candidates from President Macron's centrist bloc received less clear instructions from their leaders.

Macron expected to get a majority of votes and the opportunity to form a centre-left government by maintaining the leadership of his bloc.

However, most of French people decided to say no to both the right and Macron.

Leader of the victorious left Mélenchon is unwilling to form a coalition government and called on Macron to admit defeat.

Thus, President Macron's attempts to stabilize the political situation by combining the forces of his party with left-wing organisations have led to bigger uncertainty. It is a very difficult issue to form a government.

So far, all forecasts show that France will receive the so-called vague and ineffective parliament. This may result in instability of the supreme power in France.

The situation is aggravated because by law, the president will be unable to call new parliamentary elections earlier than in a year.

All this threatens France with internal instability and the inability to claim leadership in the EU.