"Russia has its own plan for Kazakhstan" Experts comment on diplomatic scandal between Moscow and Astana

The odious statement of the Ukrainian ambassador in Kazakhstan about the "murder of the Russians" voiced in August became the reason for a new turn of a little subdued but not completely resolved diplomatic scandal between Moscow and Astana. The recent harsh statement of Russian Foreign Ministry's spokesperson Maria Zakharova on this subject caused a strong reaction in Kazakhstan, and then, it escalated. Kazakhstani experts have no doubt that Moscow is following a deliberate policy aimed at worsening relations with Astana. Russia, on the other hand, has a different opinion.

At the end of last summer, Ukraine's ambassador to Kazakhstan, Petro Vrublevskyy, in an interview with a Kazakhstani blogger, responding to a question about the situation in the country, said that they were now trying to kill as many Russians as possible. "We are trying to kill as many of them as possible. The more we kill Russians now, the less our sons will have to kill. That's all," he said.

The Ukrainian ambassador was then summoned to the Kazakh Foreign Ministry, where he was protested over the shocking interview. The scandal seemed to have been settled, and Kyiv even considered appointing a new head of the diplomatic mission in Astana. However, the incident continued.

In early October, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova was outraged by the fact that Petro Vrublevskyy was returning to Kazakhstan as Ukraine's ambassador. In her opinion, the Ukrainian diplomat did not come to Astana "just to pack his things and take his family" - he allegedly openly attends various receptions as head of the diplomatic mission. Zakharova's comments were published on the official website of the Russian Foreign Ministry.

She also recalled that the Kazakh side had promised to expel Vrublevskyy from the country as soon as possible without a right to return after the Ukrainian diplomat spoke in an interview about killing Russians. Zakharova even called Vrublevsky a "militant Russophobe" and a "Bandera emissary" and was outraged that he returned to Astana despite assurances from Kazakhstan.

"Vrublevskyy distinguished himself by his inhuman public calls to kill as many Russians as possible, thereby violating all the limits of civilized behavior, not to mention diplomatic ethics and a gross violation of the laws of the host country, which provide for responsibility for undermining interethnic accord," the Russian Foreign Ministry representative stressed.

Also in connection with the incident on October 4, the Ambassador of Kazakhstan Yermek Kosherbayev was summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry, where he was categorically told that such a situation was unacceptable.

However, the Kazakh Foreign Ministry deemed such a reaction from Moscow exaggerated. They said that Zakharova's comments on the Ukrainian ambassador were discordant with the nature of relations between Astana and Moscow. They added that the candidacy of the new Ukrainian ambassador to Kazakhstan was still under consideration. "Petro Vrublevskyy will leave the republic after the appointment of a new ambassador, the Ukrainian diplomatic office said," the Kazakh government replied.

However, the diplomatic tension did not end there either. Today, the Kazakh Foreign Ministry described the details of the conversation with Russian Ambassador to Kazakhstan Alexei Borodavkin.

"The ambassador was summoned to the Foreign Ministry for a serious conversation. We discussed a statement by the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, which is not in line with the spirit of equal strategic partnership. The conversation was quite tough", the Foreign Ministry's press service said.

According to a number of analysts, the scandal is indisputable evidence of the deterioration of Russian-Kazakh relations, which have been growing negative over the last six months, but prior to this incident, the disagreements were not of a diplomatic character.

Is it so? And is the August incident a prologue to a serious cooling of relations between Moscow and Astana?

As Kazakh political scientist and candidate of political sciences, Sharip Ishmukhamedov told Caliber.Az, the demand of the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova to expel the Ukrainian ambassador from Kazakhstan and even prosecute him in accordance with the Criminal Code of the republic for incitement of ethnic hatred is difficult to comment on.

"Zakharova's statements and demands do not comply with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, which is signed by most countries, including the former Soviet republics. Russia, like Kazakhstan, is a signatory to this convention and must adhere to it," the political scientist said.

Moreover, Ishmukhamedov said Russia's actions and statements are a deliberate political move, challenging Kazakhstan's sovereignty and independence.

"These thoughts are suggested by the fact that the Ukrainian ambassador's harsh rebuke was made over a month ago, and Zakharova's statement was only made a few days ago. That is not an emotional reaction of the diplomatic office, but a planned action. I think that in the near future we will see the consequences and further steps of the Russian Foreign Ministry. These may include sanctions and reciprocal measures. It seems to me that the Kremlin's action programme towards Kazakhstan is already mapped out ahead of time," the political analyst said.

He stressed that "this is not an exploit on Kazakhstan's part; this is the normal action of any country." The Ukrainian ambassador is not a citizen of Kazakhstan, and he cannot be prosecuted, except as persona non grata. And this already means a violation of relations between Astana and Kyiv, and therefore such a measure is unacceptable.

"Although Ukraine is not a strategic partner of Kazakhstan, it has always occupied a special place in our country's diplomatic policy", Ishmukhamedov said.

In addition, he said, the incident vividly demonstrates "the attitude of Russian officials towards Kazakhstan".

"This behavior, this attitude with the position that Kazakhstan must do something to please Moscow's wishes, began not from the Russian Foreign Ministry, but from Putin's words that 'before Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan did not exist,' from Medvedev's tweet, where he wrote that 'Kazakhstan is an artificial state,' and so on. It started from the very top," the political analyst stressed.

Lately, said Ishmukhamedov, there is a dangerous trend where nearly every major Russian official feels compelled to speak negatively about Kazakhstan. The only ones who have not yet had a say on the matter are the military.

"The peak of aggravation of relations between Moscow and Astana will be reached if the military of the two countries start talking about it as well. Then the counter will be turned on, now this is not happening, although one can talk about a negative trend in relations between Russia and Kazakhstan," the Kazakh expert said.

Dmitry Solonnikov, a Russian political analyst and director of the Institute of Contemporary State Development, said the situation between Russia and Kazakhstan is calm for the two friendly states. Each side, he says, needs to save face in the current difficult situation, but at the same time ensure interaction in the right direction.

"It is clear that there was a Ukrainian provocation and that the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry is behaving in a boorish way towards all states... Feeling the support behind their backs - the big, hairy hand of Washington - they are rude to everyone they can," the Russian political analyst believes.

Kazakhstan needs to save face and maintain contact with foreign countries, he said. If Kazakhstan were to show that it adheres to Russia's position on absolutely everything, it would be wrong.

"Meanwhile," he notes, "Russia has firmly stated its position and Kazakhstan has demonstrated its independence, but it has played in a politically competent direction, friendly to Moscow and not to Kyiv. At the same time Kazakhstan, of course, preserves its international subjectness, showing that it conducts its own policy, its own line. And it benefits both Russia and Kazakhstan at the same time. No one will aggravate the situation, the Foreign Ministries of the two countries have fulfilled the necessary procedural steps, and both sides are happy with the result. Even though the boorish diplomat was declared an undesirable person, there will be others, we'll see which ones," Solonnikov summed up.