Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons could lead to increased Israel's bombing of Iran Shereshevskiy's forecast

Reports of an explosion in the city of Karaj in Iran surfaced on February 23 night local time, with initial reports indicating that air defenses in the area were activated. The Jerusalem Post reported that air defence systems had been triggered. A video from the scene, circulating on social media, confirmed this, showing Iranian air defence batteries firing at invisible targets hidden in the night sky.

The Iranian state-run IRNA agency stated that the explosions and activation of the air defence systems were part of an IRGC defence exercise near Karaj. However, it is very likely that another Israeli bombing of Iranian military targets is taking place. It's actually not the first time Karaj has come under attack. In September 2021, a fire broke out at the missile base of the Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group, killing two workers and injuring one. IRGC-affiliated newspaper Sobh-e-Sadegh later reported that the fire was caused by an Israeli attack.

In June 2022, an explosion rocked the area again, and satellite images distributed by the Intelli Times website showed damage to the roof of a structure at the Shahid Hemmat base, indicating that the base was attacked a second time.

Two things are noteworthy. First, Iran is in no hurry to blame Israel for the attacks. This may be due to the increasingly tangible weakness of the regime, unable either to repel Israeli attacks or to launch strong retaliatory strikes against its adversary. Tehran is loath to voice such clear evidence of its weakness. But it can hardly hide this from anyone any longer.

Secondly, the attacks are becoming more frequent. As a reminder, on the night of January 29, the production halls of a weapons factory in the city of Isfahan were attacked by Israeli drones.

Iran is getting closer to the creation of nuclear weapons. The IAEA recently found traces of uranium enriched to 84 per cent at an Iranian nuclear facility. This means that the country is close to the critical 90 per cent enrichment level needed to build nuclear weapons.

Meanwhile, the US and Israel are still figuring out what could be done about it and are holding joint military exercises to work on eliminating Iran's nuclear programme. However, according to the latest estimates published by The Jerusalem Post, the Iranian military needs another 6 to 24 months to develop a nuclear weapon capable of delivering the charge to its destination. After all, it is not enough to create the components; it must still be combined with the appropriate missile system.

Nevertheless, there are many indications that Iran is getting closer to developing full-fledged nuclear weapons and this increases the likelihood of Israeli strikes. But Iran's apparent weakness in being unable to stop Israeli attacks with air defences or sensitive retaliatory strikes on Israeli territory may also play an important role. This sets the stage for Israeli bombings of Iranian nuclear, missile, and military-industrial facilities to become more frequent and more powerful.

It is highly likely that these attacks will eventually become something of a routine, just as attacks by the Israeli air force regularly destroy Iranian military facilities, bases, and arms convoys in Syria.