The world has broken, and no one is fixing it Four years of the Russia-Ukraine war

On February 24, it marked exactly four years since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This conflict has become the largest and bloodiest in Europe since the end of World War II. De facto, the Russia-Ukraine war has driven a nail into the coffin of international legal institutions and laws, while the United Nations has demonstrated its inability to prevent large-scale military conflicts.

Russian media and propagandists often justify the invasion of Ukraine as a “fight against NATO expansion.” Yet the conflict has produced the exact opposite outcome: Finland and Sweden joined the North Atlantic Alliance, clearly not part of Moscow’s plan, which had hoped to increase its own influence. Instead, Russia has lost much of its global sway, pushing it to deepen ties with Iran and North Korea. Tehran and Pyongyang have provided military-technical support to Russia: Tehran through its notorious Shahed drones, which have repeatedly struck Ukrainian cities, and North Korea by sending soldiers—effectively involving the DPRK directly in the war against Ukraine on Russia’s side. A striking example of Russia’s waning influence is the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, when Moscow, bogged down in the Ukrainian meat grinder, was unable to assist one of its key allies.

Despite the use of advanced technologies in the war, both sides remain stuck in positional battles. Constant use of drones and UAVs has made the battlefield highly transparent for both Russians and Ukrainians, meaning that neither side is currently capable of mounting large-scale offensive operations.

A year ago, the negotiation process to end the war gained momentum, mediated by Washington. At the time, many pinned high hopes on the success of American diplomacy in resolving the conflict, but it did not produce the desired results. One side’s demands do not satisfy the other, and a serious compromise between Moscow and Kyiv is currently virtually impossible. Russia insists on the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the territories of Donbas still under Kyiv’s control as a precondition for a ceasefire. However, Ukraine considers it impossible to surrender its land. It is inconceivable that the Armed Forces of Ukraine would leave territories that Russia has not yet even captured, and hand over Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, which form a massive fortified agglomeration capable of effective defence if Russian troops approach the area.

Negotiations, held at various locations around the world with varying frequency, have failed to yield results. By now, history should have taught us that if diplomats emerge from talks with statements like “great progress was made” or “negotiations were constructive,” it usually means the process was wasted. Unfortunately, this applies directly to the Russia-Ukraine war.

Overall, we live in a world engulfed in the flames of military conflicts. This is part of the struggle among great powers to redraw spheres of influence on the planet. The expansion of the war in Europe beyond Ukraine no longer seems like a matter of fantasy. The world has broken, and there is no one to fix it.

By Riad Hamidov