Transnistria: Neither Chisinau nor Tiraspol ready for new war Caliber's interview with Moldovian ex-presidential candidate

This time, the sudden aggravation of the situation in Transnistria threatens Moldova's security, amid the Russian-Ukrainian war. In connection with this issue, a meeting of the Supreme Security Council initiated by Moldovan President Maia Sandu was held on April 26. At the same time, it is worth mentioning that according to the statement of the Government Bureau for Reintegration, the purpose of the incidents in Transnistria is to create pretexts for aggravating the security situation in this region, which is not controlled by the constitutional authorities of Moldova.

Dmitry Ciubasenco, a Moldovan politician and presidential candidate of the "Our Party" in the 2016 elections, clarified the situation around the alarming events in Transnistria, in a conversation with a Caliber.Az reporter.

Should we expect a trap against Kyiv?

According to Ciubasenco, Transnistria, like Moldova itself, does not benefit from the build-up of tension in the region.

"Neither Transnistria nor Moldova is interested in unfreezing this "frozen" conflict, which has been in a relatively calm phase since 1992, for 30 years. Indeed, this territory is unrecognized and de facto it is not controlled by the Moldovan authorities. But for all these years, the relations between the right and left banks of the Dniester were more or less stable, there was trade, a free movement of goods, and a peacekeeping operation. That is, there was no escalation of the situation. Moldova is very reluctant to the resumption of hostilities in Transnistria, and is not ready to lose this region completely, for example, as Ukraine loses its very large territories.

It is possible that the build-up of tensions in our region could be beneficial for Ukraine in order to create another hotbed of tension for Russian forces, and thus divert them to the Transnistrian area. In addition, some Ukrainian officials have already stated that such an option could solve the Mariupol problem. But to achieve this, it is necessary to start a conflict on the territory of Transnistria. If the conflict in Ukraine spills over into Moldova, I think there will be a real threat of finally losing Transnistria. Although, hopefully, it is still possible to agree on some state of further coexistence of Transnistria in the form of autonomy, like Gagauzia in the south of the country," Ciubasenco says.

Does West have an objection

"We have heard high-level statements by the U.S. Secretary of Defense, representatives of the European Commission about their unwillingness to take the military conflict in Ukraine into the territory of another state, in particular, Moldova. I think that they really do not want to drag Moldova into this story as well. The situation is rather muddy and confusing, but the only thing that worries and alarms people is the uncertainty itself, which it is not clear what those grow up into?" Ciubasenco suggests.

Russian Interests

"Russia may also be interested in unfreezing the conflict in Transnistria. But not right now. There are statements by high-ranking Russian officials that the Russian armed forces have a long-term goal of taking control of the entire east and the entire south of Ukraine. At this stage, the war is going on mainly in the east of Ukraine, in Donbass, but in fact, Russian forces also control the Kherson region, and hostilities continue on the borders of Zaporozhye and Nikolayev regions. It is about 100 km to Odessa from where the Russian armed forces are now, i.e. by going through the Nikolayev region, they can get to the Odessa region as well. If Russia decides to reach Transnistria, given that the pro-Russian regime is established there, I think no one will have to be persuaded to join the Russian Federation. After all, a "referendum" was held there before.

I think that Russia is not ready to open another front here and move towards Odessa and Transnistria in the near future. Russia may open it in the future, but today it is unlikely. I assume that all these provocations in Transnistria were committed to testing the reaction to the aggravation of the situation around this region. And judging by the statements of Russian officials, Russia is not interested in interfering in the Transnistrian conflict right now," he noted.

Mopping up by Romania?

"Romania officially denied reports that the plan of "mopping up" of Transnistria by the Romanian-Ukrainian coalition is being prepared. I believe that this is the most extreme variant, the last phase. In case a real armed conflict starts in Transnistria, it cannot be ruled out that the Ukrainian military will want to occupy the region. Although this would mean that they would have to enter territory which is officially, under international law, Moldovan territory. Can they do this without the consent of the official Chisinau? It is a big controversy. It is unlikely that Chisinau would give its consent for Ukrainians to enter the Transnistrian territory. But even if we imagine such an extreme scenario, we cannot exclude that Russian troops will interfere. And in this case, we cannot exclude that Chisinau may ask Bucharest for military assistance," Ciubasenco said.

A step away from World War III?

"Romania's intervention in the Transnistrian conflict could lead to a major escalation in the region. In this case, Russia's direct intervention in this conflict will be inevitable, which may have unpredictable consequences on the scale of a world war," the expert warned.

On Ukraine's collapse

"If Russia foresees the fact of Ukraine's disintegration, it is logical that it will reach the Dniester region. On the other hand, Russia constantly states that it officially recognizes Moldova within its international borders. Yes, Moldova does not control the Transnistrian region de facto, but de jure it remains Moldovan territory, and Moscow continues to claim that Chisinau and Tiraspol agree on some kind of reintegration formula with autonomy for Transnistria. But right now, there are no such negotiations on a political settlement," Ciubasenco said.

Provoking factors

"What do the representatives of the Russian Federation mean when they speak about the onslaught of Russians in Moldova? Here is my answer. For example, the restrictions imposed on Russian television channels. They really are imposed. In Moldova, the law "On the ban of the St. George's ribbon and V and Z symbols" was also adopted. For Russia, everything related to the Great Patriotic War is very painful. In this regard, Russia reacted sharply to this ban," Ciubasenco said.

Moldova without NATO?

"Moldova is officially a neutral state. And Chisinau has stated that it does not intend to join NATO. The authorities of the country have recently emphasized this. Another thing is that there is a close program of cooperation between Moldova and NATO. Actually, all structures of the national army of Moldova have been shifted to standards of NATO. The current leadership of Moldova is certainly on the side of the west, in the present conflict of the West and Ukraine against Russia," the interviewee said.

Forecast of war in Ukraine

"This year the hostilities in Donbass and possibly in the south of Ukraine may end, after which there may be some clarity. At this stage, Ukraine has already lost one-sixth of its territories and will probably lose even more. Most likely, Ukraine may disintegrate into several state formations because the war on its territory continues in an extremely militaristic form. That said, neither side can afford to lose in this war. Nevertheless, Russia has more power and opportunities to achieve its goals than Ukraine, despite the West's greater military support for it," Ciubasenco concluded.