Trump changes the global game Europe at a crossroads

A survey conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations across 24 countries reveals that the start of Donald Trump’s new presidential term is causing the greatest concern among European Union (EU) member states and the United Kingdom. This data is unlikely to surprise anyone, though it’s more accurate to say that political leaders in the Western branch of the EU are deeply anxious about Trump’s imminent assumption of office in the coming days. After all, this response is to be expected when the so-called "liberal-democratic" establishment feels its leadership is under threat. 

Furthermore, they are struggling to make sense of the steps Trump has outlined on the international stage. Some of these actions have already been implemented—and rather abruptly! It is at this point that we begin to examine what is unfolding (through the lens of the same survey results).

The question is whether these very leaders, who have failed both domestically and internationally, will appreciate the fact that the over-a-year-long boiling cauldron of the Middle East was suddenly resolved with a prisoner swap deal between Israel and Hamas. This breakthrough came about after a single, decisive command from Trump, who sent his future administration's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, to the region. It was through Witkoff that Trump made an offer to all parties involved in the situation—an offer they could not refuse. This point is evident from a brief report on Witkoff's negotiations, which can be summed up in a few words: "there has been a narrowing of gaps in the negotiations between Israel and Hamas."

Will leaders in Paris, Brussels, or Berlin, who couldn’t move such an agreement even an inch closer, be able to digest this development?

And could these leaders, who have failed both at home and abroad, appreciate Trump’s statement about the "many mistakes" made by Joe Biden's administration in negotiations over Ukraine's potential NATO membership, which may have provoked Russia to attack Ukraine due to the Kremlin's perception of Washington's incompetence? Moreover, just a couple of days ago, Congressman Mike Waltz, who is already being seen as an advisor to the new U.S. president on national security, announced that Trump’s team is expecting a phone call between him and Vladimir Putin in the coming days and weeks. As he put it, "from President Trump’s perspective, you can’t enter a deal if you don’t have some type of relationship and dialog with the other side."

Alongside this, another sharp comment from Trump, directed specifically at European allies. He called on NATO countries to increase their defence spending to 5% of GDP, while simultaneously demanding that Europeans shoulder a greater portion of support for Ukraine: "Europe is in for a tiny fraction of the money that we're in. We have a thing called the ocean in between us, right? Why are we in for billions and billions of dollars more money than Europe?"

As a result, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte first updated the defence spending target to 2% of GDP. Then, at a special meeting, the defence ministers of Germany, France, the UK, Italy, and Poland began discussing new figures. However, some analysts have already suggested that Trump deliberately proposed an unrealistic figure so that the recipients would suggest a number closer to 3%.

Undoubtedly, these so-called leaders, who have lost their way, likely reacted similarly to the unexpected visit of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to the U.S., after which Trump called her "a fantastic woman” who has stormed Europe. It is no secret, to put it mildly, that Meloni is not well-liked in Paris, Berlin, and Brussels.

And then, these "failed" political heavyweights, still trying to position themselves as key players on the European continent, suddenly heard from Trump about the importance of Türkiye's role in the processes in Syria, along with the statement that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is his "friend and a person" whom he respects. At this point, jaws are surely not far from dropping.

Moreover, widely circulated reports highlighted the first-ever invitation extended to a Muslim cleric, Husham Al-Husainy, the director of the Karbala Islamic Education Center, Michigan, to speak at Trump’s inauguration alongside representatives of Christian and Jewish faiths. How can leaders in Brussels, Berlin, and especially Paris calmly accept this development, considering the undeniable Islamophobia that persists in many leading European countries?

Of course, another factor that keeps these individuals awake at night is Elon Musk, considered one of the closest figures to Trump, whom Macron accused of supporting the "right-wing reactionary international" and interfering in elections, particularly in Germany. The Bundestag has already started an investigation into these "facts." By the way, European right-wing figures, including Nigel Farage (UK), Geert Wilders (Netherlands), Tom Van Grieken (Belgium), and others, are expected to attend Trump's inauguration.

Returning to the survey results mentioned at the beginning of the article, it is easy to understand how they became a reality. Notably, nearly 50% of respondents expressed uncertainty about the EU’s ability to shape the political and economic global direction on equal terms with Washington or Beijing.

It almost echoes Marx’s famous line: the spectre of Trump is haunting Europe. The real question is, what will happen when Donald Trump begins his presidential duties?