Türkiye-EU: Imminent accession or a receding prospect? Turkish pundits on Caliber.Az

Türkiye wants to intensify the process of its accession to the European Union (EU), said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin.

He praised Germany's contribution to this issue. “In this context, we intend to consider the issues of speeding up the issuance of visas to our citizens,” Erdogan said. The Turkish president added that his country avoids discrimination in foreign policy.

According to German media, Erdogan spoke about easing the visa regime, expanding the customs union with the EU, and resuming negotiations on joining the EU.

Back in July 2023, Erdogan made a connection between Ankara’s approval of Sweden’s entry into NATO and progress in his country’s integration into the EU. Türkiye’s relations with the EU and the strengthening of economic ties between them, the continuation of the integration process, coupled with related issues of trade and migration, are the subject of discussions.

One of the trump cards in Erdogan’s hands can be considered that Germany, like the EU as a whole, wants the Turkish president to extend the agreement concluded in 2016 to limit the number of arriving migrants. Another stream of immigrants from the countries of the Middle East has poured into Europe, which only strengthens the position of the far right, especially in Germany. Under this agreement, Türkiye keeps migrants, mostly Syrians, on its territory, preventing them from crossing the EU border. In exchange, Ankara receives financial tranches from Brussels.

Perhaps, as a condition for the renewal of this treaty, Türkiye could demand intensified negotiations on its future membership in the European Union? In short, has Türkiye never given up the idea of becoming a full member of the EU someday?

Prominent Turkish experts answered these questions to Caliber.Az.

Political scientist and journalist Hakan Aksay recalled that Türkiye’s struggle to become part of first the European economic cooperation system, and then the EU, began a long time ago, 60 years ago. “And in 1987, Türkiye applied to become a full member of the European Union. In general, decades passed without virtually any results. The auction has been going on for many years.

I think that now, at this stage, Türkiye does not really hope to become a member of the EU, and the Europeans are also no longer seriously considering it. We are talking about bargaining on different points. It is very important for the EU countries, among other things, that Türkiye does not open its borders with the EU to migrants, and they are ready to allocate money for this,” Aksay states.

But there are also big political differences, he says.

“They have escalated now due to the war between Israel and the Palestinians. During Erdogan’s visit to Berlin, we clearly saw how there was a hidden or semi-open debate between him and the German leaders on this issue. Erdogan spoke somewhat softer than usual, but still he spoke about the Holocaust, about the fact that some countries (meaning Germany) feel guilty for the past, and Türkiye has nothing to be ashamed of in this sense. He also said that there could be no place for forceful pressure from Israel, and the Germans expressed the opposite theses. That is, there is a controversy, a hidden struggle between Türkiye and members of the European Union,” the political scientist said.

On the other hand, there is also trade, Aksay noted.

“Türkiye trades most with EU countries. Another point is that Türkiye also has good relations with Russia, to which the West reacts differently. Sometimes conflicts break out, sometimes Erdogan smooths out the situation. This applies, for example, to the issue of Sweden's membership in NATO. It happens that he gives the go-ahead, and then the Turkish parliament postpones consideration of this issue. That is, Türkiye uses it. And the West also uses its levers - whether to transfer its military aircraft to Türkiye or not, etc.

In my opinion, to briefly summarize all this, Türkiye's membership in the EU is a very distant prospect. But Erdogan, of course, wants to fulfil one of his promises for his voters, at least - to ease the visa regime so that Turks can freely travel to European countries. Negotiations on this matter are ongoing. This is important for Erdogan, for the government. Let me remind you that we have elections again soon.

In fact, the pre-election process is already underway - local (municipal) elections will be held in Türkiye on March 31 of the coming year. Therefore, glasses are also needed in foreign policy. And Erdogan has been earning a lot of points lately in foreign policy, since there are many problems within Türkiye not only politically, but also economically. In fact, the economic crisis continues. Therefore, relations with the West, as well as with Russia, are very important for Erdogan,” Aksay believes.

Political scientist, leading specialist of the Ankara-Moscow expert-analytical network Engin Ozer believes, in turn, that the process of rapprochement that Erdogan initiated with the European Union after the elections is purely tactical in nature.

“The Turkish lira continues to lose value and the government does not have a solution that could stop this process in the near future. High inflation and instability in the economy have reduced the interest of foreign investors in Türkiye. The government needs foreign investment and long-term loans. Good relations with the European Union have a positive impact on the prospects of international financial institutions towards Türkiye,” he noted.

Looking from this perspective, it is clear that Erdogan sees the EU not as a political organisation but as an economic one, the analyst said.

"Therefore, the current government does not intend to fulfil the 'political' directives that Türkiye must fulfil for EU membership," Ozer said.

He went on to say that support for Sweden's NATO membership was based entirely on economic and military (F16) reasons.

"Even if Türkiye's Grand National Assembly approves Sweden's NATO membership, it does not mean that Ankara will implement the necessary reforms for EU membership. As a result, becoming a member of the EU is not among President Erdogan's goals, but he is trying to utilise the Union's financial and economic opportunities," the expert concluded.