US-Ukraine tensions and Azerbaijan’s victory lessons What the world needs to learn

This is what is being discussed and will be discussed by the world’s leading media in the near future. Because what happened will affect the balance of power across the entire planet. So, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in the USA on February 28 to sign an agreement on the joint development of Ukrainian mineral resources with the United States. This agreement was personally insisted upon by Donald Trump. 

In the afternoon, the Ukrainian president met with a bipartisan delegation from the US Senate, and afterward, he went to the White House for talks with Trump. These were conducted in the presence of journalists and broadcasted live. Up to a certain point, it seemed as though both parties had understood each other and were ready to take steps that could become an important foundation for ending the war. However, a heated argument eventually broke out between Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Donald Trump, and Vice President JD Vance during the live broadcast.

Vance pointed out that Ukraine is currently facing a shortage of men on the front lines, which is absolutely true. But Zelenskyy responded by saying that Vance had never even been to Ukraine. After that, the Ukrainian president stated that during a war, all countries face problems, and even the United States would experience them in such a situation.

This was manipulation. It is not necessary for Vance to visit Ukraine to have a full understanding of what is happening in the country. There is American intelligence for that. I remind you that the U.S. intelligence services repeatedly warned Volodymyr Zelenskyy, starting in the fall of 2021, that a full-scale Russian military invasion of Ukraine was being prepared. CIA Director William Burns specifically visited Kyiv for this purpose, urging the Ukrainian side to take the information he was sharing seriously. In response, the Ukrainian side stated that they had completely different data. Yes, Burns heard in Kyiv that the presence of Russian troops on the border did not necessarily mean that Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine. 

As noted in his book War (published in October 2024), two-time Pulitzer Prize winner and renowned American journalist Bob Woodward wrote that there had been at least seven such meetings between Zelenskyy and American officials. During these meetings, the American side told the Ukrainian president that a Russian attack was inevitable.

Burns also met with the head of the Ukrainian President’s Office, Andriy Yermak, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, and many other officials involved in decision-making. "Their reception was polite but restrained," is a quote from Woodward's book. The book War then recounts how U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin invited his Ukrainian counterpart, Reznikov, to Washington. They showed him maps, satellite data, and a lot of classified information about the impending attack. Just like Zelenskyy, Reznikov denied this and stated that Russia would not do such a thing.

After Reznikov’s departure, the White House officials were left in despair, discussing how Ukraine was consciously and demonstratively unprepared for war, which only increased the likelihood of a Russian invasion. The White House’s desperation grew. They could see that a war was being prepared, but no one believed them, including the country that was about to be attacked. On December 26, 2021, the White House leaked this information to the press. The Washington Post published an extensive article about the preparation for the invasion, complete with maps and satellite data. Did this change the stance of official Kyiv? No.

Let’s continue through the pages of Woodward’s book. It highlights what happened in January 2022, just a month before the full-scale Russian military invasion began. At that point, CIA Director Burns once again travels to Kyiv to meet with Zelenskyy, trying to convince him again of the inevitability of a Russian attack, bringing new data and maps. Zelenskyy does not believe it, saying that a 190,000-strong army cannot capture a country with a population of 42 million, calling it just a bluff from Russia.

Finally, the book describes what happened on February 19, 2022, in Munich. Biden sends Kamala Harris to convince Zelenskyy. She lays it out plainly: an offensive is inevitable, and you are not prepared for it at all. "You need to take seriously the likelihood that any day the Russians will invade your country," she says. Zelenskyy responds, "We just don’t think they’re going to invade,” asking her to stop saying this publicly because it's undermining Ukraine’s economy." In the end, Harris shouted at Zelenskyy, and he shouted back at her.

All of this is important to know in order to properly assess what happened on February 28. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the one who dismissed multiple warnings from the American side, from U.S. intelligence, about Russia preparing a full-scale military invasion. This mistake cost Ukraine many lost towns and the lives of countless Ukrainian soldiers and civilians. As a result, Zelenskyy has no moral right to accuse the United States of anything. Moreover, he should have chosen a different tone when communicating with the president and vice president of the country that provided the largest financial and military aid to Ukraine. Unfortunately, the whole world saw something completely different. He forced President Trump to intervene in his dispute with Vance. "Don’t tell us what we’re going to feel. We’re trying to solve a problem. Don’t tell us what we’re going to feel. You’re in no position to dictate what we’re going to feel. We’re going to feel very good and very strong," Trump rightly pointed out.

I won’t recount the further content of the exchange between the U.S. and Ukrainian leaders. I will highlight the outcome of what happened. Immediately after the tense exchange of remarks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, U.S. President Donald Trump gathered his key advisers for a discussion in the Oval Office. According to a White House representative, Trump consulted with Vice President Vance, the U.S. Secretary of State, as reported by CNN. It was then that he concluded that Zelenskyy “is not in a place to negotiate.” He then instructed Secretary of State Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz to deliver the message: “it was time for Zelenskyy to leave.” All attempts by the Ukrainian side to continue the negotiations were unsuccessful.

Donald Trump later commented on the tense dialogue with Volodymyr Zelenskyy: "It’s amazing what comes out through emotion, and I have determined that President Zelenskyy is not ready for Peace if America is involved, because he feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations. I don’t want advantage, I want PEACE. He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace,” said the American president.

Let’s continue. The signing of the deal between the USA and Ukraine on rare earth metals has been canceled, reports Fox News. The U.S. State Department is halting the program to support the restoration of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, according to NBC News. The U.S. administration is considering stopping all current military aid shipments to Ukraine after unsuccessful negotiations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This was reported by The Washington Post, citing a senior administration official. It is noted that this decision, if made, will affect radars, vehicles, ammunition, and missiles worth billions of dollars that are waiting to be shipped to Ukraine.

As we can see, Ukraine may soon feel the truly tragic consequences of what happened on February 28. I am in no way attempting to absolve the U.S. president. He and his team also made a lot of unfair statements against Zelenskyy and Ukraine. Additionally, Europe was shocked by the rapprochement between the U.S. and Russia. However, Trump and his team claim that they are neutral and eager for the war to end as soon as possible, a war that Ukraine is losing. Achieving this goal, according to Trump, is impossible without dialogue with Russia. In any case, it is Russia that emerged as the winner from the outcome of the harsh, public conflict between Trump and Zelenskyy.

In this regard, I would like to draw attention to Azerbaijan’s experience. As a result of the First Karabakh War, the country lost 20% of its territory. At that time, the Azerbaijani army did not have the strength to restore territorial integrity. Continuing the war further would have led to the deaths of a large number of soldiers in the Azerbaijani army, which was still in the process of formation.

As a result, a ceasefire agreement was signed on May 12, 1994. This was a difficult but wise decision, one that could only have been made by such a brilliant strategist as the national leader of the Azerbaijani people, Heydar Aliyev. The cessation of hostilities allowed Azerbaijan to focus on rebuilding the country’s economy.

On September 20, 1994, the Azerbaijani government signed the "Contract of the Century" with the world’s largest oil and gas corporations for the large-scale development of the "Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli" fields in Azerbaijan's sector of the Caspian Sea. This agreement played an exceptional role in attracting investments and developing the country’s industry. Heydar Aliyev understood the importance of ending the war to attract Western investments, which guaranteed Azerbaijan's security, economic growth, and increased geopolitical influence, as well as the opportunity to build a strong army. These were the building blocks of the future victory. This victory became a reality thanks to the continuation of the policy of national leader Heydar Aliyev by the current President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev.

Both Heydar Aliyev and Ilham Aliyev, in pursuit of the main historical goal— the full restoration of Azerbaijan's sovereignty and territorial integrity—met and negotiated with the Presidents of Armenia, Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, both former leaders of the Karabakh junta, whose hands were stained with the blood of the Azerbaijani people. Yes, this is the kind of policy that true leaders of their country and people must follow. In such matters, personal considerations must take a back seat. At the forefront must be responsibility for the present and future of the country, which its citizens have entrusted you to govern.

Unlike Ukraine, Azerbaijan did not have support from the United States and Europe. The country did not receive hundreds of billions in military and financial aid. Its citizens were not welcomed in European countries, nor were they provided with free housing or monthly allowances to cover all their needs. On the contrary, we remember that in 1992, the U.S. Congress passed the Section 907 Amendment. Essentially, this was the introduction of sanctions against a victim of occupation. This occurred in the year when Armenia occupied Shusha and Lachin, and in the year when the genocide against the peaceful Azerbaijani population in Khojaly took place.

In early January, in an interview with domestic television channels, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev stated: "All three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group during the period for which I am responsible were unequivocally on the side of the occupier. I am telling you this as a person who has been conducting negotiations within the framework of the Minsk Group since 2004 and has met with this “troika” a great number of times." Nevertheless, despite such horrendous starting positions, facing immense pressure from leading world powers, Azerbaijan was able to restore its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

This was a lesson in the brilliant strategy and tactics of Heydar Aliyev and Ilham Aliyev. Studying their approach is crucial for leaders worldwide, as it offers valuable insights into addressing and resolving their countries' historical challenges.