"We are on the brink of nuclear war" Nasibova VS Professor Kobrinsky

Caliber.Az presents an interview with Alexander Kobrinsky, Doctor of History, professor at Lomonosov Moscow State University, and director of the Agency of Ethnic and National Strategies.

- Alexander Lvovich, in the post-conflict period Europe is actively undertaking a mediating mission on normalization of the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. Is this factor reflected in the South Caucasus policy of Moscow and its current perception of Baku and Yerevan?

- In fact, there is no Europe in the political sense of the word anymore. Europe has failed completely in its confrontation with the Anglo-Saxon world, and today it is not even in the role of a vassal, but much lower, because vassals could make at least some decisions, while Europe cannot make any independent decisions. So when we talk about some mythical Europe, we must always keep in mind that this is the Anglo-Saxon world, and clearly understand what its interests are. Now amid the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, we often hear that the defence of Ukraine is the national interest of the United States or Great Britain. But it is not explained at all what are the national interests of the Anglo-Saxons in this conflict, how do their interests spread to this territory from across the ocean? The essence of the issues is not disclosed.

The situation is exactly the same with regard to Azerbaijan and Armenia. They will try to interfere and push Russia out of the South Caucasus region under any pretext. The question is, what for? This is the key question. If we paraphrase the thought of Russian commander Suvorov: "Once happiness, twice happiness - God have mercy! And where is the logic?" We must look at the facts. By and large, both Europe and the Anglo-Saxon world are a struggle between the continent and the island states. The Anglo-Saxon world represents the island states that have suppressed the continent, and their task is to keep the continent from rising, otherwise, it will simply strangle these island states quite easily with its economic power and might. To keep the continental states from rising, the Anglo-Saxon world needs constant conflicts within Europe. There is no war anywhere on the islands, while on the continent everywhere and always they stir up one conflict or another. Moreover, this is done by the hands of the European Union, which is the tool just like Ukraine, Armenia, and Azerbaijan in the hands of the Anglo-Saxon powers, because when they support one side or the other, it leads to conflict.

We understand very well that the whole territory of Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan, and for 30 years the parties could come to an agreement and resolve the conflict. If Armenians want to visit their shrines located in the territory of Azerbaijan, they can always agree on free passage. Knowing at least a little bit about the Azerbaijani people, who are kind-hearted and hospitable, I don't think that the Azerbaijanis would prevent this in any way. But the situation is such that this conflict, first of all, has not been solved for the whole 30 years, and secondly, has been getting worse and worse, up to the point of exploding. In full accordance with the well-known theory of controlled chaos. Russia's interest in resolving this conflict is that a lasting peace is established on its borders in the region. Since time immemorial, Russia's entry into the region has brought peace. Generally speaking, Russia's interest has always been in peace, while the Anglo-Saxon interest has always been in chaos. That is all.

- Are you saying that the Anglo-Saxons provoked the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict?

- Yes. I would put the responsibility for all the periods of aggravation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations on the Anglo-Saxon world.

- How do you argue this belief?

- Tell me, where is the largest American embassy in the Anglo-Saxon world?

- In Armenia.

- That's right. And you mean to tell me that they have no influence on Armenian politics? The Anglo-Saxon fact is to make empty promises and push for some actions and steps. Can you tell us what the biggest US embassy in the South Caucasus does in Armenia?

- This question should be addressed to Russia. And at the same time, we should ask how it happened that it missed the placement of American bio-laboratories on the territory of Armenia.

- It is absolutely true. This is the omission of the Russian side.

- You believe that the Anglo-Saxons ignited the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, but Moscow was the main arbiter between Baku and Yerevan for all subsequent years. Meanwhile, the conflict has been solved in a military way. Will Russia now force Armenia to fulfill the post-war agreements?

- I think that Moscow will act by persuasion, explaining the disadvantages if the agreements are ignored by Armenia. Moscow has a vested interest in seeing that peace and prosperity reign in these territories. These are not empty words; they are true.

- The experience of almost 30 years of negotiations has proved the ineffectiveness of this method with regard to Armenia.

- Everything depends on the political will of the leaders of the conflicting sides and the political situation in Armenia. The latter, against the background of protest unrest in Yerevan, is especially important at the moment. It is possible that Pashinyan will need to delay the implementation of the agreements so that he does not have to negotiate with Armenia's new leadership.

This conflict was greatly aggravated by those who invented and implanted myths about Azerbaijanis having unkind feelings towards Armenians and Armenians hating Azerbaijanis. These myths must be overcome. I have said many times that the war is won not by soldiers, not by generals, not by supreme commanders, and not by diplomats. It is the teacher who wins the war, and long before the war. Because it is the teacher who first shapes people's minds. Russia's special operation in Ukraine is a clear indicator of this. That is why Ukrainian soldiers kill our prisoners, cut their throats, and our soldiers feed and water Ukrainian prisoners.

- You gave a completely unconvincing example...

- I know this because it is reality.

- The reality is that Russia attacked Ukraine, not the other way around.

- Don't fall into a myth. Let me give you a more convincing example. Look, Stalin was informed in 1941 that there would be war, but he did nothing, although dozens of spies warned him of an attack by Germany. We condemn Stalin for this. But his victory in the war changed people's negative attitudes toward him. Putin did things differently. When he received information that there would be a massive offensive by March 8, 2022, he was ten days ahead of the event.

- Was someone going to attack Russia?

- Before the military special operation began, up to 600 bombs were dropping daily on the territory of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Why do you think we recognized these republics? Now tell me, from what point should we count the beginning of the war, or rather the special operation? If we had fought a war in Ukraine, the cities there would have been razed to the ground - war dictates different rules of the game.

- It was Moscow that started the war, literally the day it recognized the "independence" of Luhansk and Donetsk by declaring them republics...

- Remember Putin's speech at the big press conference at the beginning of the year, during which he used the following phrase: "You want de-communization? You'll get it." Putin differs from Biden and other leaders in that he never minces words. If he says that a fight is inevitable, strike first, you have to understand that he will strike first, again in case a fight is inevitable. So, you see, you don't have to pick a fight with this man and this country. Winning against Russia is impossible by definition.

- The war in Ukraine called into question the thesis that "Russia is for world peace". The tragedy of Mariupol will not be forgiven by the world...

- Wait. You have to be cruel to be kind. This is the first. Russia did not start this war. This is the second. The conflict has lasted eight years. And we are not the ones destroying monuments to soldiers of the Red Army, and not our soldiers go into battle with swastikas tattooed on their breasts, we are not the ones putting out the "eternal flame" to the unknown soldier. Do you understand?!

- And all these outrages take place in Ukraine?

- Yes. And all over the country. If you want to see this for yourself, I can arrange a trip to Ukraine, so you as a journalist can see everything with your eyes.

- See what? That Mariupol is a ruin?

- You could meet and talk to people and write honestly about everything in Azerbaijan. You would see that most people are begging to go to Russia.

- Considering that the war has taken a long time and there is no end, what goals has Russia achieved so far?

- This is a very complicated question. First of all, the special operation has not been protracted at all. We know that NATO bombed Yugoslavia for three months, although no one supplied weapons there, and all European countries bombed it along with the Americans. We, on the other hand, only got to the position of three months. Russia is not at war with Ukraine, it actually faced the entire NATO bloc. Ukraine has kindly made its territory available for this confrontation. And since NATO countries have smart people who don't want their fellow citizens to die, they hired mercenaries, which the Ukrainian poor souls became. We understood that it would be impossible to solve this conflict in three days. Therefore, we should not expect it to end quickly. Russia continues the special operation, and there are no more Nazis in the liberated territories.

- You still haven't named Russia's ultimate goal. Is it seeking to create a "Malorossia"?

- No, Russia's initial goal was the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine, but against the background of the introduction of NATO forces into the conflict, these goals will be somewhat adjusted. It seems to me that the state of Ukraine will cease to exist on the world map as it was before February 24, 2022. Russia cannot leave a single region there without denazifying it. Russia cannot limit itself to small things, it must end this story completely.

- Do you think Russia will be allowed to completely destroy Ukraine?

- And who will not allow it to do that? First, not to destroy, but to create several republics on this territory. I do not see the possibility of preserving the state that is on this territory. It must be transformed and reformed. In my opinion, the state is a system of institutions of management of society, based on the law. The state that existed in Ukraine has been destroyed, it actually does not exist. Some territories will probably want to be with Russia, for example, the Kherson region, Donetsk, and Luhansk will gradually join the Russian Federation. Perhaps even the Zaporizhia region. It would be logical. Maybe Odessa will live as an independent city - the free city of Odessa. Russia has absorbed dozens and hundreds of cultures. I always talk about my beloved Tatars, who brought no fewer bricks to build Russia than the Russians themselves.

- But that didn't stop Russia from snatching the Crimea from the Tatars...

- Why? Please... It is a subject of the federation, many Crimean Tatars live there freely, in Old Crimea in general only Tatars live, and in Bakhchisaray, there is a serious restoration, and it is Russia that makes a huge investment in all these projects. The Russians are the Muscovites. And Russia belongs to Russians, Tatars, Bashkirs, Chukchi, and others. And what is happening in Ukraine is Russia's omission. Because it did not work for Ukraine. Russia has been silently watching American bio laboratories proliferate in Ukraine, relying on the principle of "where will they go?" But it miscalculated.

- Is Russia capable of resorting to nuclear war?

- Now we are on this brink, because European countries do not understand the essence of this conflict. For them, the war in Ukraine is a game. Russia cannot lose in this conflict. Because if God forbid things to go badly, it will mean the collapse of Russia. Neither more nor less. And what is the collapse of Russia?!

- That is, roughly speaking, right now Russia is trying to save its face?

- It is trying to save its world, its oecumene. It is not ready to have gay pride parades on its territories. This war is a fight for Russia's survival, its world view, in order not to have this become the property of the Anglo-Saxon world. That's what Russia is trying to achieve.