What is behind Lavrov's statement on "Russia's legitimate interests in South Caucasus"? Armenian, Georgian experts talk to Caliber.Az

The US and EU do not seek to help Armenia and Azerbaijan normalise their relations, but merely intrude into the region and suppress Russia's legitimate interests. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made the due statement at a press conference in Minsk following the meeting of the CSTO Ministerial Council.

He believes that with the mediation of the Russian side, the foundations were laid for the normalisation of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, because the first Trilateral Statement was signed in November 2020. This was followed by several more Trilateral Statements at the highest level, which focus on various aspects of the efforts needed for full normalisation. These concerns, among other things, the unblocking of transport communications and economic ties between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus in general.

Lavrov said the Russian Federation is not opposed to other international players trying their hand at mediation. The main thing is that this should pursue the goal of securing agreements reflecting the balance of interests of the Armenian and Azerbaijani peoples and states.

"Unfortunately, we see in what the US and the EU are doing not a desire to help negotiate, but a desire to penetrate into the region, to suppress Russia's legitimate interests and establish themselves as a force that will play an alleged decisive role here," the minister said.

Lavrov called the West's behaviour "a desire to expand into regions that are far away from the borders of NATO members, the European Union". And this, he said, "has little to do with a sincere desire to help stabilise the situation". At the same time he "hopes that the partners in Yerevan and Baku understand all this".

In general, this is quite a surprising speech for the head of a foreign policy agency of a country waging an aggressive war against a neighbouring state. Lavrov wants to prove that by waging armed aggression against one neighbour the Kremlin for some reason wants peace for its other two neighbours. This is, to put it mildly, hard to believe.

What are these "legitimate interests of the Russian Federation" in our region that Lavrov is referring to? We are actually talking about sovereign states, and no one can have any "legitimate interests" in their territories. For some reason, Lavrov is not ashamed to say so openly.

Finally, he sees behind the actions of the EU and the US "a desire to penetrate into the region"— also an interesting accusation. Actually, so far only Russia has infiltrated the region. It occupies two regions of Georgia - Abkhazia and South Ossetia, is present with a military base and border guards in Armenia, and keeps its peacekeepers in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan. This military presence in three independent states can hardly be called a stabilizing factor for the South Caucasus. But we cannot speak about the armed Americans or Europeans in our region so far. They represent a "threat" only in Lavrov's imagination.

These statements were made by him at the meeting of the pro-Kremlin military bloc. I wonder who he wanted to convey these "signals" to. What effect was he hoping for?

Foreign experts answered these and other questions for Caliber.Az.

Conflictologist, Doctor of Sciences in International Relations, Professor of Georgian Technical University Amiran Khevtsuriani noted that generally when listening to Lavrov's speeches (especially in recent times), it is hard to believe that this is the head of the diplomatic service of a modern state speaking.

"His expressions and mannerisms as a diplomat are perhaps more typical of figures of a medieval, tyrannical era. However, we are not surprised anymore as he represents a state that has killed tens of thousands of people on the territory of the neighbouring country, exploded hydroelectric power stations, and mined nuclear power plants. His statements regarding our region are completely devoid of diplomatic and human morals," says Khevsuriani.

These words demonstrate complete disrespect for the sovereignty and statehood of the two countries, which obviously deserves a tough response from the foreign ministries of these states, the conflictologist believes.

"I wonder what legitimate rights of Russia Lavrov is talking about, whose expansion? The only country which by its actions and statements openly hints at a desire to conduct expansion of the South Caucasus is the Russian Federation. The Russian Federation is the country that occupies 20% of Georgia's sovereign territory. Moreover, for 30 years Russia has been using the Karabakh conflict as a tool to influence Armenia and Azerbaijan. Therefore the only country which does not allow peace and stability in the region is Russia.

I would also remind Lavrov that he is deeply mistaken when he says that Armenia and Azerbaijan are geographically separate from the NATO bloc countries. I would advise him to look carefully at the map because NATO's borders are very close and straddle the borders of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. So the time is not far off when the South Caucasus countries will also become full members of this family," Khevtsuriani believes.

According to Vardan Harutyunyan, an Armenian public figure, human rights defender, publicist, and Soviet-era political prisoner, Russia does not benefit from the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

"Due to this conflict, Russia was and is in our region. Now it is doing everything so that our conflict is not solved through the mediation of the West. It interferes, provokes, and openly opposes the peace negotiations. Here much depends on Armenia and Azerbaijan. The unprovoked, aggressive war that Russia unleashed against Ukraine weakens Moscow. This is an opportunity for us. If we want to live in peace (and we have to live in peace), we have to use this chance, disregarding the threats coming from Moscow," Harutyunyan says.

Nika Chitadze, a political scientist and professor at the Black Sea International University in Tbilisi, said in turn that Russia had always pursued a policy of "divide and rule" in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, as in the case of other conflicts.

"Now Moscow is concerned about the fact that it is losing its monopoly on 'peacekeeping' activities in Karabakh. The EU and America are increasingly interested in resolving the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. And this irritates the Kremlin.

Lavrov brazenly declares Russia's legitimate interests in the Caucasus. What do you mean by 'legitimate interests'? Azerbaijan and Armenia are independent states. And the less Russian influence they have, the more chance they have of resolving the relationship between them," Chitadze concluded.