Why is Georgia risking its relationship with the EU? From EU aspirations to political turmoil

Georgia's relations with the West have seen better days. The country has recently found itself embroiled in controversy and diplomatic tensions, stemming from the passage of a controversial "foreign influence" law. This law has had far-reaching consequences, including the suspension of Georgia's EU membership bid and the annulment of Western financial aid and military drills.

Early aspirations & setbacks

Georgia's path towards European integration has been long and fraught with challenges. Since gaining independence from the Soviet Union, Georgia has consistently sought closer ties with Western institutions, including the EU and NATO. However, this trajectory has been complicated by internal political strife, economic instability, and geopolitical pressures, particularly from Russia.

The endorsement of the "foreign influence" law marked a significant departure from Georgia's pro-Western stance. The law, which mandates that organizations receiving more than 20% of their funding from foreign sources register as "foreign agents," was widely criticized for its potential to stifle civil society and free speech.

In a surprising move, Georgia endorsed the controversial "foreign influence" law, fully aware that it would provoke negative reactions both at home and abroad. The rationale behind this decision seems to be influenced by the Georgian kingmaker, Bidzina Ivanashvili, whose motivations remain opaque but likely involve consolidating domestic power and navigating complex international relations.

Bidzina Ivanashvili, the billionaire and former prime minister often seen as the kingmaker in Georgian politics, plays a crucial role in this shift. Ivanashvili's motivations appear to be driven by a mix of personal power consolidation and a pragmatic approach to navigating the complex geopolitical landscape. His influence on GD and the government's decisions suggests a strategic calculation rather than a simple alignment with either Western or Russian interests.

The law faced immediate resistance. Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili vetoed the draft law, reflecting widespread domestic and international opposition. However, the Speaker of the Parliament swiftly signed it into law, underscoring the deep divisions within Georgia's political landscape.

The clash between President Salome Zurabishvili and the Georgian parliament over the foreign influence law highlights internal political divisions. While President Zurabishvili vetoed the law, reflecting her commitment to democratic principles and Western integration, the parliament overrode her veto, indicating a significant shift in the balance of power and priorities within the Georgian government.

EU & US responses

The EU and the United States have reacted strongly to Georgia's legislative and political actions. The suspension of Georgia's EU membership bid and the freezing of financial aid are direct consequences of the perceived democratic backsliding. US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller's condemnation of Georgia's crackdown on democratic dissent further emphasizes the seriousness with which the West views these developments.

The EU's decision to halt the accession process and freeze 30 million euros in aid has significant implications for Georgia's economy and defense capabilities. Germany's halt on new financial commitments and military cooperation adds to the mounting pressure on the Georgian government.

The parliamentary elections on October 26, 2024, add another layer of complexity to Georgia's political landscape. With political parties forming new alliances and the West-Russia confrontation intensifying, the elections will be a pivotal moment for Georgia's future direction.

Georgia's current actions can be seen as part of a broader strategic balancing act. On one hand, the government seeks to maintain domestic control and navigate Russian pressures. On the other, it faces the challenge of managing its relations with the West, which remains crucial for economic and security reasons.

As parliamentary elections approach, Georgia's political landscape will further aggravate and become highly volatile. Political parties are forming new alliances, and the confrontation between the West and Russia over Georgia is intensifying. Mutual accusations and geopolitical maneuvering are shaping the pre-election atmosphere.

Russia's stance & accusations

Amid these developments, Russia has not remained silent. Despite occupying Georgia's two autonomous republics, Russia accused the USA of plotting a government change in Georgia. On July 9, the Press Office of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service claimed that Washington was determined to achieve a change of government following the parliamentary elections on October 26, 2024. They alleged that the Biden administration was developing a propaganda campaign to discredit Georgia’s ruling Dream Party.

Over the past two weeks, the damage from passing the controversial law has become evident. The US has postponed the Noble Partner exercise, and the European Council has expressed serious concerns about Georgia's commitment to EU-Atlantic integration. The PACE resolution condemned the Foreign Agents Law, questioning Georgia's dedication to democratic principles.

Azerbaijan's stance on Georgia

Azerbaijan's geopolitical strategy heavily relies on a stable and predictable Georgia. This stability is crucial not only for regional security but also for the economic prosperity that comes with secure energy routes and future infrastructural projects.

Azerbaijan and Georgia share a significant economic partnership, primarily driven by the energy sector. The security of oil and gas pipelines that traverse Georgian territory is vital for Azerbaijan's economy. These pipelines are critical conduits for transporting Azerbaijani energy resources to European markets, making Georgia's stability a top priority for Baku.

A stable Georgia contributes to the overall stability of the South Caucasus, a region historically plagued by conflicts and geopolitical rivalries. Azerbaijan, having experienced its share of regional tensions, understands the value of a peaceful and cooperative neighborhood. Stability in Georgia helps mitigate risks of spill-over conflicts and ensures a safer regional environment.

The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, the South Caucasus Pipeline, and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline are crucial infrastructural assets for Azerbaijan. Any instability in Georgia poses a direct threat to these energy corridors. Ensuring the security and operational integrity of these pipelines is essential for Azerbaijan's economic stability and its role as a key energy supplier to Europe.

Azerbaijan's ambitions extend beyond the current pipelines. Future projects, including expansions and new energy routes, depend on a stable and predictable Georgia. The development of these projects requires a cooperative and secure regional environment, reinforcing Azerbaijan's interest in Georgia's internal stability.

Azerbaijan has consistently supported Georgia through diplomatic channels, emphasizing peaceful resolutions to internal and external conflicts. Bilateral relations have been characterized by mutual respect and a shared vision for regional development and security.

Azerbaijan also engages in multilateral platforms to promote regional stability. Organizations such as the GUAM (Organization for Democracy and Economic Development) and various energy cooperation forums provide avenues for Azerbaijan to advocate for peace and stability in the South Caucasus.

Political turmoil in Georgia, such as the recent controversies surrounding the "foreign influence" law, poses risks to Azerbaijan's strategic interests. Azerbaijan closely monitors these developments, understanding that political instability could disrupt energy supplies and regional cooperation efforts.

The South Caucasus region is a geopolitical chessboard with major powers like Russia, the EU, and the US vying for influence. Azerbaijan's strategy involves balancing these external pressures while maintaining strong bilateral ties with Georgia. Any significant geopolitical shift in Georgia could impact Azerbaijan's foreign policy and economic strategies.

Conclusion

Georgia stands at a critical juncture. The passage of the "foreign influence" law has strained its relations with the West and cast a shadow over its EU membership aspirations. The upcoming parliamentary elections will be a decisive moment for the country's future direction. Whether Georgia will realign with Western values or continue on its current path remains to be seen. As the situation unfolds, the international community will be closely watching, hoping for a resolution that supports democracy and stability in the region.