WWII echo: How AfD's triumph reflects Germany's internal struggles Experts talk prospects of far-right resurgence

The far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) has achieved an unprecedented victory, becoming the first such party to win a regional parliamentary election in Germany since World War II. In the recent elections for Landtag members in the federal states of Thuringia and Saxony, the AfD secured a major breakthrough. In Thuringia, the AfD claimed first place with 32.8% of the vote, outpacing the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which garnered 23.6%. In Saxony, while the CDU narrowly came in first with 31.9%, the AfD followed closely with 30.6%.

In both regions, the newly formed ultra-left party, the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), emerged as a strong contender, placing third. The party, established in January after a split from the Left Party, earned 15.8% in Thuringia and 11.8% in Saxony, quickly surpassing several of Germany’s traditional political forces. BSW was formed after the prominent Left Party figure, Sahra Wagenknecht, broke away from the main faction.

The election results dealt a significant blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz's ruling "traffic light coalition." In Thuringia, Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) managed just 6.1% of the vote, while the Greens failed to pass the five per cent threshold, losing their representation. In Saxony, the SPD earned 7.3%, and while the Greens barely made it into the Landtag, the Left Party lost representation altogether.

Chancellor Scholz described the results as "bitter," reflecting the coalition's poor performance.

The AfD has hailed this outcome as a historic success. But what do these election results mean for Germany’s political landscape? Are they a sign of deepening political divisions within German society? And what potential risks do these developments pose for the country’s future?

European experts have shared their insights on these pressing questions with Caliber.Az.

Alexander Cherkassky, an analyst, publisher, and editor-in-chief of Neue Zeiten magazine and YouTube channel Neue Zeiten TV in Germany, says the AfD's victory reflects growing discontent with the current state of affairs in the country.

“There are problems in the economy, which are caused by the consequences of the pandemic. In addition, the war in Ukraine has entailed, on the one hand, an increase in energy costs (refusal of Russian gas and oil), on the other hand, the refusal of nuclear energy. This is also a mistaken economic policy of the ruling coalition, and on the other hand—uncontrolled migration from Syria, Afghanistan, and other third-world countries,” Cherkassky explains.

He also emphasizes that the political hope for migrant integration has failed, and the frequent outbreaks of Islamic terrorism are almost constant now.

“Voter sentiment has been affected by the government's inability to solve the problem of illegal migrants. Plus, in the east of the country, there is strong sympathy for political forces that offer simple solutions. All this strongly influences the balance of power and will certainly affect the political situation next September — at the elections to the Bundestag,” Cherkassky adds.

Yevhen Magda, director of the Kyiv-based Institute of World Politics, emphasizes that the recent land elections in Thuringia and Saxony have drawn significant attention.

“In three weeks, similar elections are expected in Brandenburg, which is also in the east of Germany. All three of these federal states were part of the former German Democratic Republic. Despite 34 years since reunification, these regions have struggled to match the living standards found in the rest of the FRG. Therefore, the success of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in these areas is quite logical,” Magda notes.

He observes that the economic stagnation caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war has had a broader impact.

“The war has halted economic growth and development opportunities in many countries. We need to view this situation philosophically. On the one hand, these are state elections, and the national Bundestag elections will only be held in a year. The current results serve as a significant warning to the ruling coalition of Social Democrats, Free Democrats, and Greens. However, there is still time for corrective actions. While Germany may not provide long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine under the current circumstances, I am confident that it will continue to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia,” Magda concludes.