"Next two weeks in Russian-Ukrainian war to be decisive" Expert Opinions on Caliber.Az

Since June 5, Ukraine has recaptured 108 square kilometres of territory conquered by Russia, 38 square kilometres of which were liberated on August 22 alone. This is a tiny percentage of the over 100,000 square kilometres that remain in Russian hands. Still, this acceleration offers hope, The Economist writes.

What explains the recent successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces? In particular, the new weaponry. New demining equipment has made a slow and dangerous task less difficult. In addition, Ukraine has stepped up the fight against drones and thrown some of its reserves into the battle.

There are indications of a significant increase in shelling of Russian forces by Ukraine since early August. The number of fires associated with fighting in Russian-controlled territories is now higher than at any time since the conflict began, according to The Economist.

A different assessment of what is happening was given by an American military analyst, retired US Army Lt Col Daniel Davis. Based on his own analysis of the situation on the fields of the Russian-Ukrainian war, he named the timeframe for the completion of Ukraine's counteroffensive in his article for 19FortyFive.

The expert believes that heavy casualties and the approaching rainy season will be the key circumstances for the Ukrainian troops to switch to a widespread defence. Based on these assumptions, Davis predicted that the Ukrainian "counteroffensive" will be completed before the end of September. The result would be "marginal gains in some areas”.

"From a strategic point of view, the contact line of a thousand kilometres remains virtually the same as it was at the beginning of 2023," the analyst stated.

He also believes that Ukraine's troops have practically exhausted most of their military potential, having barely reached the village of Rabotino in the Zaporizhzhya region. The American officer doubted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would have enough resources to move forward and hold the flanks against Russian counterattacks.

"In all likelihood, Ukraine is at the end of its spurt. It may soon have to go back on the defensive to hold territory," Davis concluded.

This raises the question of how likely is it that Ukraine will be able to make a breakthrough and make strong gains, pushing the enemy back hundreds of kilometres, or even reaching its rightful borders before the end of this year, as some analysts are now predicting.

Foreign experts shared their thoughts on this with Caliber.Az.

Israeli military expert David Gendelman notes that after attempts at a quick breakthrough at the start of the counteroffensive in June failed, the Ukrainian armed forces have switched to a slow-motion tactic: alternating between small infantry groups and larger mechanised units, shifting efforts from direction to direction while striking Russian rear areas and counter-battery warfare.

"That is, the game is based on the accumulation of losses and the expenditure of reserves by both sides. At the moment, this slow gnawing has led to the first position of the Russians' main defence line in the Novoprokopovka-Verbovoye area. Further development also depends on the rate at which reserves are spent. The Russians have already started transferring reserves from other directions to the south, which means that they no longer have enough reserves of their own in the southern operational zone. This increases the Ukrainian armed forces’ chances of further advance, depending, of course, on whether they have enough reserves of their own.

The question now is whether the Ukrainian troops will have time to reach at most the Azov Sea or at least the Tokmak line and cut the railroad before the fall thaw. This will be in the first case a complete and in the second - a partial success of this offensive operation, the purpose of which is to cut the Russian land corridor to Crimea," the Israeli expert says.

In turn, Head of the “Third Sector" analytical centre, Ukrainian political scientist Andriy Zolotarev said that it can be stated that the first Russian defence line is half-broken. This is the most saturated with mine barriers and fortifications part of the "Surovikin line".

"According to the estimates of a number of experts, 60 per cent of the Russians' resources were just directed to the formation of the first defence strip. Accordingly, 20 per cent each for the second and third. In fact, now the battle for either Melitopol or Berdyansk begins.

In war, there is a chance that a miracle will happen, and the defence of the Russian army in the Zaporizhzhya region will ‘fall’. However, this is a chance for a miracle. In reality, there is at most a month left for combat operations before the autumn thaw. This suggests that if the Ukrainian armed forces manage to take Tokmak or approach Melitopol, they will jump over their heads," Zolotarev said.

According to him, the Ukrainian armed forces have indeed made serious progress in counter-battery warfare, the troops are actively "taking out" Russian artillery, and everyone notes this.

"But, nevertheless, the scale of military assistance provided to us by allies, and partners, is only sufficient for Ukraine to hold up but not to win. We do not know what is the situation with reserves at the General Staff, as it is classified information, but even the breakthrough of the first line of defence succeeded with great difficulties.

The next 7-10 days might be decisive, and then, the miracle will happen. However, it is more likely that there will be no significant progress because Ukraine does not even have parity in firearms, no air superiority, no advantage in electronic warfare, and no advantage in the amount of ammunition.

Yes, supplies have intensified, now Ukrainian artillery fires up to 6,000 shells a day, but the enemy has 50-60,000 shells a day, you have to understand that. True, we are superior in the quality of training and equipment but the quality doesn’t give us a fire advantage over the enemy. No one will name any military operations when the armies of the United States or Britain launched an offensive without having a fire advantage. It's an axiom.

In addition, there are a number of technical details. Case in point: the jamming guidance heads for the Hymars. We now hear less often about strikes with such effective multiple rocket launchers because the Russians are very active in using electronic warfare systems.

Well, from the experience of the Second Garabagh War, as far as I know, the Israelis in a few months helped Azerbaijan to solve the problem of defence of high-precision weapons against electronic warfare equipment that the Armenian side had in Garabagh. For some reason, we are not in a hurry with this, and this is a mystery to me.

And again, the amount of new equipment - there have been practically no deliveries of heavy armoured vehicles in the last 2 months. What came in the first half of the year is what we are fighting with. We suffer losses, some of the equipment needs repair. And the result depends on resources.

Most likely, the goals of the current counter-offensive, which were announced, I think, are unlikely to be achieved. We have to proceed from a realistic assessment of our forces.

So, for now, we can state that the two-month struggle to break through the first strip [Surovikin line] has finally been crowned with success. That is, the tactical successes of the Ukrainian armed forces are finally being converted into operational and tactical results.

But it is premature to say that a strategic breakthrough and success have been achieved. I emphasise once again that the next two weeks will be decisive. The period of active combat operations will last until mid-October, when the rains and autumn thaw begin and it becomes impossible to conduct offensive operations.

Information from the field does not inspire much optimism. Even heavy infantry weapons are lacking. If they take Tokmak and reach Melitopol, it will be a leap over the head for the Ukrainian troops," Zolotarev concluded.