"Armenia would be better off building relationships with its neighbours than striving for EU membership" German expert on Caliber.Az

In an exclusive interview with Caliber.Az, Stefan Meister, a member of the German Council on Foreign Relations, discusses the European Union's role in the South Caucasus, the challenges surrounding Armenia's EU aspirations, and the dynamics between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Meister emphasizes the importance of regional relationships and offers insights into the future of the EU's influence in the area, while highlighting the complexities of peace prospects and Armenia's potential integration into the European Union.

— Mr. Meister, in a recent interview with an Armenian publication, you mentioned that Europe is not a serious player in the South Caucasus. Can your opinion be seen as a failure of Brussels' policy in our region?

— I did not say that Europe is not a serious player in the South Caucasus. I simply emphasized that the EU is not as strong a player in this region as Türkiye and Russia. The EU's policy is not as well adapted to the situation in the South Caucasus, which has changed significantly in recent years. For example, we see that today Azerbaijan, with its relevant will and tools, has become the main player in the South Caucasus. As a result, the country plays a very important role in this region.

As for the European Union's policy in the Caucasus, it seems to me that some member states lack the sufficient will to exert more influence on the region, which is likely also related to the fact that it is not a priority for the EU. Nevertheless, the European Union engages with the region through the "Eastern Partnership" policy, investments in infrastructure, and through the observation mission stationed in Armenia on the border with Azerbaijan. This mission is very important for maintaining regional security.

— So, you consider the EU mission effective in terms of maintaining regional security, despite the fact that it serves the interests of only one side of the conflict — Armenia?

— I disagree with the claim that the EU mission serves the interests of only one side of the conflict. In my opinion, the mission is a neutral actor, which has brought about a certain level of transparency at the conditional border, and the number of attacks has decreased compared to what happened before. Therefore, I have a positive view of the work of European observers and believe that their presence is necessary for the de-escalation of the conflict. I think it would be better if the mission were also stationed in Azerbaijan, but as we know, that is not in Baku's interests.

— If, as you said, the mission plays a stabilizing role on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, then why is its main initiator — France — actively supplying Armenia with deadly weapons, putting the region at risk of a new war?

— France has longstanding close ties with Armenia, with a large Armenian diaspora living there. It seems to me that Paris is supplying Yerevan with arms to support the balance of power in the region, as Armenia is relatively weak and unable to stand up to Azerbaijan.

— Do you think a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan is achievable?

— I believe there is a significant chance of achieving a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, considering the compromises being made on the Armenian side.

— What do you see as the compromise? After all, Armenia refuses to change its constitution, which contains territorial claims against Azerbaijan.

— Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is generally willing to change the constitution, although this will be difficult for him. However, it will require the approval of the population, as it is a matter of the country’s sovereignty. Moreover, a referendum will need to be held, and that is not an easy task.

— Does Armenia have real chances of joining the EU? What are the timelines and conditions for this to happen?

— I don't think Armenia will join the European Union within the next ten to twenty years. It’s difficult to predict what will happen during that time and how the world and the region will change in that period. I believe it would be more reasonable for Armenia to focus on developing its economy and building relationships with regional countries, rather than fully integrating into the EU. In Armenia's case, it likely makes more sense to integrate into various sectors of the EU, rather than aiming for full membership.