Azerbaijan, Belarus elevate relations to new heights with strategic collaborations Baku-Minsk partnership gains momentum

On January 26, 2025, presidential elections were held in Belarus, which were won by the current leader of the country, Alexander Lukashenko. The electoral process was also monitored by an observer from Azerbaijan, Deputy Speaker of the Milli Majlis Musa Gasimli. According to him, "the elections were held democratically, freely, and transparently. Observers from the Azerbaijani Parliament believe that the results reflect the will of the Belarusian people and will open a new stage in the country’s development and prosperity." The next day, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev congratulated his Belarusian counterpart on his re-election as President of the Republic of Belarus and wished him success in his activities.

Experts from the Western analytical portal Eurasia Daily Monitor note that there is a warm personal relationship between the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Belarus, which helps not only in interstate relations but also in solving many regional issues. Analysts also point out that although Azerbaijan and Belarus established diplomatic relations in June 1993, it was only in 2006 that the countries opened embassies in each other's capitals. Observers highlight a number of common traits that contribute to the rapprochement between Belarus and Azerbaijan: strong presidential power, internal stability, skilful manoeuvring between major global players, and a well-developed economic infrastructure, which both countries have been able to enhance over the years of independence.

According to Russian scholars, there are several priority areas in which Azerbaijani-Belarusian relations will develop after the elections. First and foremost, this concerns issues of energy security, which is especially relevant for Belarus, as it does not have its own hydrocarbon reserves. For instance, in June 2010, a pricing dispute between Minsk and the Russian company Gazprom escalated into a full-blown crisis. The gas monopoly began reducing natural gas exports to Belarusian consumers, demanding an immediate payment of $200 million to settle a disputed debt. Otherwise, Gazprom intended to completely halt Russian gas supplies to Belarus. After the negotiations reached a deadlock, President Alexander Lukashenko announced that he would "turn to his friends" for financial assistance. This friend turned out to be Ilham Aliyev, who provided Minsk with an urgent 12-day loan, allowing Belarus to settle the debt and ensure uninterrupted gas supplies.

Speaking about the current stage, one can expect the implementation of agreements reached during Alexander Lukashenko's visit to Baku in May 2024 regarding the increase in oil supplies. Additionally, Azerbaijan will gradually move away from sending raw materials to its partner, focusing more on the supply of various products from oil refineries.

The second important aspect is economic cooperation. In 2023, the volume of Belarusian exports to Azerbaijan exceeded $300 million. In the near future, one of the most promising areas of Belarusian-Azerbaijani cooperation will be industrial cooperation. In this regard, the parties are implementing a roadmap for the development of cooperation between the two countries for 2024–2025, signed during the 14th meeting of the Joint Intergovernmental Commission. An example of such cooperation is the Ganja Auto Plant. This enterprise, which started operations in 2007, is now one of the flagships of Azerbaijani engineering. More than 14,000 Belarusian "Belarus" tractors, other Belarusian automotive machinery, electric buses, and combine harvesters have been assembled there. Today, 16 types of various high-tech Belarusian products are assembled under license at this plant.

Azerbaijan and Belarus also plan to actively collaborate in the exploration of space. Minsk has developed advanced technologies in this field, with several Belarusian satellites already launched into orbit, and Baku is interested in creating joint programs in this area and restoring previously lost scientific and economic ties.

It seems that cooperation between the two countries on the international stage will also expand. In late January 2025, during a briefing for foreign press, President Lukashenko made strong statements regarding the foreign policy course of the current Armenian government. He called Armenia's rapprochement with the EU "a highly dangerous game." According to the President of Belarus, "The European Union will start helping him [Pashinyan] there... Doesn't he understand what happened in Ukraine? Alright, Ukraine, but Georgia is nearby. He will destroy the country. Therefore, he needs to slow down a bit. We cannot allow war in the Caucasus."

Since the spring of last year, Armenian-Belarusian relations have been in freefall after Pashinyan declared that no Armenian official would visit Minsk while Alexander Lukashenko remains in power, due to Belarus' support for Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia.

Another aspect of the Belarusian-Azerbaijani rapprochement worth mentioning is military-technical cooperation. In particular, Azerbaijan acquired the Polonez multiple-launch rocket system (MLRS) from Belarus.

In conclusion, it can be said that Baku and Minsk will continue to strengthen their relations. As President Alexander Lukashenko stated: "As for our political relations, it is hard to say that we lack anything or that there is any negative factor. We do not have such factors. Our relations are excellent, and I am always proud of this."