Could US-Iran conflict trigger World War III and nuclear war? Experts weigh in

American economist, Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University (New York), Professor Jeffrey Sachs, said that an armed conflict between the United States and Iran could very likely turn into World War III.

"The United States is not interested in a war with Iran because Iran has allies, including Russia. So a war with Iran could easily turn into World War III, and World War III into a nuclear war," Sachs said in an interview with American journalist Tucker Carlson. The expert added that Israel is trying to drag the United States into "a larger war in the Middle East, which is 100% contrary to American interests."

How likely is it that World War III will break out and then turn into a nuclear war from this very region? And how right is the expert in believing that Israel is trying to draw the US into a “wider war in the Middle East”? Is such a thing in the interests of this country? After all, it directly threatens its existence - America is far away, and Israel, you might say, is next to Iran, in the same region.

Answers to these questions came from well-known foreign experts in an interview with Caliber.Az.

Avraham Shmulevich, a specialist on the Caucasus, the Islamic world and the Middle East and head of the Institute for Eastern Partnership (Jerusalem), believes that the outbreak of World War III is an absolutely improbable thing.

"In the current situation, it is impossible, especially due to the conflict in Iran. Even if a large-scale confrontation were to occur between Israel and the US on one side and Iran on the other, it is inconceivable that Russia would come to Tehran's aid. The relationship between Russia and Iran is quite complex and contradictory. It is by no means a 100% alliance. The same applies to the relationship between Russia and China.

There is also no military alliance between Iran and China. China uses Iran for its oil needs, but that doesn’t mean China would sacrifice its own interests for Iran. Even if Iran were to cease to exist in its current form, China and Russia would not be significantly affected. The notion that if there were a strike on Iran, Russia would retaliate against the US and that China would join in is an entirely unrealistic fantasy. There’s nothing to discuss here," asserts the head of the institute.

Regarding Israel's interest in igniting a wider Middle Eastern conflict, this notion is rooted in anti-Israel propaganda, he explains.

"Israel has no interest in initiating war, and none of the conflicts around it have been started by Israel. It’s important to remember that Iran is the one that has publicly called for the destruction of Israel, as documented in the foundational texts of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran is the aggressor. It attacks Israel directly now and has long waged proxy wars against it. Naturally, Israel responds, but its primary goal is to halt these attacks. If Hamas and Hezbollah ceased their aggression, Israel would be content. However, this is unlikely because these terrorist groups are funded and directed by Tehran. Thus, it is logical for Israel to target the source of its threat.

Arab countries neighbouring Iran, which face even greater damage and threats from Iran, would also benefit from such actions. Particularly, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. During Obama’s presidency, which indirectly supported Iran (as Biden’s administration does now), Iran-Israel relations soured, and Saudi Arabia implored Israel to take action against Iran, even offering its airspace. I believe that had Israel acted on this, it would have received covert support from Bahrain, the Emirates, and Saudi Arabia."

However, Israel is keen on resolving all issues without resorting to war, as any war carries significant risks. Nevertheless, I don't believe such an outcome is feasible. Sooner or later, Israel will need to take decisive action, and the sooner it happens, the better. Iran is leaving Israel with no other option.

Regarding the attempt to drag the US into a Middle Eastern war, Israel is not interested in a full-scale conflict. It simply wants to end the constant attacks instigated by Iran.

It is very difficult to envision a full-scale war in this region. I should remind you that Israel has peace treaties and even military-technical cooperation agreements with several Arab states, which are unhappy with Iran's interference on their territories through the support of anti-government militant groups,” the expert noted.

However, he added, what is more intriguing is how this interview with Sachs came about.

"Columbia University is indeed one of the leading American intellectual centers, especially in the realm of foreign policy. As for Tucker Carlson, he is one of the most popular American journalists aligned with the Republican Party, and this article reflects the contradictions and struggles surrounding Israel within the American establishment.

Recently, it's become common to view the Democratic Party as having an anti-Israel stance. However, this isn't entirely accurate. This perception primarily pertains to the radical faction of the Democratic Party, which consists of explicit anti-Semites who oppose the existence of Israel. But they do not represent the majority within the Democratic Party. Similarly, anti-Israel sentiments can also be found among some Republican supporters. It is not coincidental that a large portion of American Jews traditionally vote for Democrats, as the core of the Republican Party includes Christian fundamentalists, some of whom are pro-Israel while others are anti-Semitic.

Carlson's stance on Israel is quite ambiguous. He frequently hosts authors with anti-Israel viewpoints, and the aforementioned interview should be understood in this context. It should also be viewed within the framework of the American electoral struggle, as the position of the Republicans on Israel is being shaped.

Going back to the beginning, Israel is not interested in launching a war, but a war has already been launched against Israel. But the Netanyahu government wants to put the Iranian issue on hold and does not want to risk launching a full-scale strike against Iran,’ Shmulevich explained.

American analyst and publicist Samson Katzman noted that following the October 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel by Hamas, during which militants killed 1,200 Israelis, including elderly individuals, women, and children, and took 242 hostages to Gaza, the focus of the world's media has shifted from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to the Middle East.

In the heated discussion of events in the Middle East, Israel, which has been the target of a terrorist attack, has been particularly targeted. Both European and American leftists are taking particular aim at Israel. The attention of observers was drawn to an interview by Columbia University professor Jeffrey Sachs with well-known conservative journalist Tucker Carlson, in which he expressed alarm at the possibility of the conflict in the Middle East escalating into World War III.

"I cannot judge how competent economist Jeffrey Sachs is in geopolitics. I would like to think that he is more competent than the students of his university, who marched cheerfully around the Columbia campus with the openly Nazi slogan ‘From the river to the sea Palestine will be free’ and were completely silent when asked what river and what sea they were referring to (the slogan-speech refers to the 'Jew-free' land of Israel from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea. On the American campus, the Left stands in solidarity with both Hamas and Hitler's fascism. Let's compare ‘Jewish-cleansed’ Palestine to the ‘judenrein’ of the German Nazis). However, I would like to point out that Jeffrey Sachs is far from being logical. It was Obama's request to the Ukrainian leadership not to resist the Russian annexation of Crimea, together with the shameful, chaotic and disorderly US withdrawal from Afghanistan, that paved the way for 24 February 2022, Russia's large-scale aggression against Ukraine," the analyst said.

He notes that Sachs is neither the first nor the most original in his statements.

"Just recently, a similar narrative was expressed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov: '...at the moment, it seems that the only one who wants a major war between Iran and Israel, involving neighbouring countries, is Israel itself. The government of this country does not particularly hide that they want to use the situation to finally resolve all issues with Hamas, Hezbollah, and pro-Iranian groups in Syria and Iraq.' It's hard not to agree with this assessment of the situation. Indeed, due to Hezbollah's attacks on northern Israel, 80,000 Israelis have become internal refugees in their own country. Don’t they have the right to return to their homes and not be shelled by Hezbollah rockets and drones? The same applies to southern Israel—don’t the residents of Sderot, Ofakim, and other towns and villages in the south deserve a peaceful life without being targeted by Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and other terrorist organizations from the Gaza Strip?"

Is Israel trying to ‘drag the US into a larger war in the Middle East’? I would assess the current situation as follows: Israel is not seeking escalation, but if Iran attacks, an Israeli response will follow. I would like to hope that in this case, contrary to the wishes of Sachs and other leftists from the American academic establishment, the US will still support its main ally and the only democracy in the Middle East,” the expert said.

At this point, he noted, the most significant question arises - what is the likelihood of an Iranian "delayed response" to Israel?

 “It seems fitting to describe the current situation with the Russian proverb 'honey is sweet but the bee stings’. The test of each other’s capabilities has already taken place: Israel’s elimination of Qasem Soleimani's top strategist, General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, in Damascus on April 1, allegedly responsible for the October 7 massacre; Iran's retaliatory strike on April 15 against Israel—the largest drone and missile attack in world history with 350 drones and cruise missiles; followed by Israel's own response on April 19 against Iran, which was precise and limited, yet convincing enough for Tehran to reconsider Israel's military capabilities. Additionally, we should include the killing of 50-year-old Israeli Eugene Ferder by a drone of Iranian manufacture launched from Yemen on July 19, and the subsequent Israeli air raid on Yemen's Hodeidah the following day.”