"Decisive moments unfold for Europe and the post-Soviet space" Belarus pundit tells Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az presents an interview with Belarusian journalist and political scientist, candidate of historical sciences Valery Karbalevich.

- Valeri Ivanovich, in recent days, several politicians in Europe, in particular, the ministers of defence of Denmark and Norway, have voiced fears of a possible military conflict with Russia. Do such sentiments have any basis?

- It is clear that the fears of European politicians are caused both by the Russian-Ukrainian war and by the fact that if Russia manages to win it, the West's weakness will become obvious. Well, if the West is weak, then it is possible not to reckon with it and continue its actions towards other states. I think that this option cannot be ruled out at all, although it is not a matter of today, as Russia will not dare to open another front without finishing the war with Ukraine. Therefore, the statements of European politicians are a kind of warning for the future.

On the other hand, even in Europe itself, there are sentiments aimed at appeasing Russia, giving it the right to retain control of Ukrainian lands. This suggests that Europe is now at a crossroads, facing a difficult choice: to mobilise and support Ukraine in order to bring the war to Russia's defeat or to seek a compromise with Russia at the expense of territorial concessions from Ukraine. I think these discussions will become even more acute if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election.

Again, theoretically, anything can be assumed. But everything will depend on how the war in Ukraine ends. If it ends with Russia's victory, the threat of conflict with NATO will increase dramatically. If Russia is forced to retreat and regain Ukrainian land, then the likelihood of conflict with NATO will drop dramatically. In fact, today everything is tied to the outcome of the war in Ukraine. And it is not only the fate of Eastern and Central Europe, the post-Soviet space but also the whole system of international relations that is being decided.

- How likely do you think it is that Trump will win the election?

- I think it's pretty high. Trump is confidently winning the primaries in the States, and I don't see anything that could prevent him from running for the Republican Party.

- Should Trump win, should we expect changes in US policy on the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

- Trump's position here is contradictory. On the one hand, he says that it is not necessary to support Ukraine, and on the other hand, he says that he will make a deal with Putin and the war will stop. Nevertheless, I believe that if he is elected, the probability of a deal with Putin on this issue is high.

- What processes are looming in the foreseeable future in the Middle East? How long will it take for the conflict between Israel and Hamas to end?

- Now there is a stage of aggravation, the conflict and everything that is happening in the Red Sea, where the Houthis are shooting at ships, creates huge problems for world trade, which requires the intervention of external players. However, it is clear that the influence of external forces on the Middle East conflict has diminished, and conversely, the influence of the Middle Eastern states themselves has increased.

This is the difference between today's situation and what it was during the Cold War and even in the first years after its end, when a lot depended on the positions of the United States and Russia and all the states of the region acted with an eye on the great powers.  Now the countries of the region have become more independent. And the fact that now the Houthis are capable of paralyzing the entire world economy was impossible during the Cold War.

- How will the EU crisis end?

- The multi-stage crisis in Europe was first linked to the Greek story when the country accumulated debts and could not pay, which caused a serious problem for the whole European Union. Then there was Brexit - Britain's exit from the EU, then the migration crisis related to the Arab Spring. At this stage, the most dangerous moments in the development of the EU have passed, and I would say that the conflict in Ukraine has to some extent consolidated the Union. If earlier statements not to admit new members to the EU dominated, now the Union has decided to open the door for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia to join. This means that the EU is ready to continue the enlargement process.

- Will NATO continue to expand to the East or does it also depend on the situation in Ukraine?

- It is a difficult question. And the answer to it again lies in the context of the outcome of the end of the war in Ukraine. If the war ends with Russia's defeat, Ukraine's accession to NATO will happen after some time, although it will be delayed. If the war ends with Russia's success, serious problems will arise in the process of NATO expansion.