Either US and EU sober Armenians, or Azerbaijani troops will do it instead Experts share their forecasts with Caliber.Az

Western mediators have been claiming since the second half of August 2022 that Azerbaijan and Armenia may sign a peace treaty by the end of the year. In autumn, high-ranking diplomats and renowned representatives of the expert community were giving optimistic forecasts about this. In December this was discussed less and less frequently. And now, at the beginning of January, there is no word at all. The only exception was the recent briefing at the US State Department, where State Department spokesman Ned Price was asked about the previously voiced hopes of signing a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia by the end of 2022.

Price responded, "We remain committed to a secure, stable, democratic, prosperous, and peaceful future for the South Caucasus region. We continue to engage bilaterally with like-minded partners like the European Union and through international organizations like the OSCE to facilitate direct dialogue between Azerbaijan and Armenia to find solutions to all outstanding issues relating to or resulting from the Karabakh conflict. We of course want the parties themselves to make progress. It is not for us to prescribe what a comprehensive solution to this conflict looks like. It's hard work that has to be done by the parties themselves."

In other words, the United States acknowledges the failure of last year's efforts, but by no means abandons its intention to continue facilitating the Baku-Yerevan dialogue together with Europe.

Are optimistic expectations from the forthcoming efforts of our Western partners, the mediators, still appropriate? Will Baku and Yerevan be able to reach a full compromise on all issues and sign a peace treaty as early as this year, 2023? What are the possibilities here?

Prominent experts answered these questions for Caliber.Az.

Greg Simons, Associate Professor at the Institute for Russian and Eurasian Studies (IRES) at Uppsala University, Sweden, Ph.D., believes that the US State Department's commentary is rather vague, and at best is some kind of goodwill indicative of Washington's diplomacy on the issue.

"At the same time, the comment emphasises the complete lack of conviction of the Western powers or their institutions to exert any meaningful influence on the outcome of the conflict in terms of formally signing a peace. Given the trajectory of activities and relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia in recent years, I see no prospect of any final peace treaty in 2023, although dialogue and diplomacy are likely to continue. There are too many restrictions and prohibitions in the domestic politics of the states themselves to achieve a 'smooth' result and formally end the conflict," Simons said.

"As we can see, the rhetoric of a peace agreement is one thing, but the reality between the two countries is another," says Dr Stefan Meister (Berlin), head of the International Order and Democracy Programme of the German Council on Foreign Relations. - There was strong pressure and arguments from Azerbaijan to have a peace agreement in place by the end of the year. But it was based more on the perception of force, which is not enough for real peace. We also see that Russia is undermining the peace agreement and has no interest in the negotiations being led by the EU. Brussels has strengthened its role in resolving the conflict, but it needs to show more attention to the position of other member states, not just France.

There is no stable ceasefire, no neutral international monitoring and no peacekeeping. Russia wants to maintain the status quo, while Armenia is too weak to negotiate an agreement acceptable to both sides. That is why I am rather sceptical about the possibility of signing an agreement in the near future".

For his part, political scientist and MP Rasim Musabekov noted that work on the peace treaty continues.

"The parties are working on a specific document. Armenians have made their comments and suggestions to the text, which was submitted by our Foreign Ministry and the secretary of Armenia's Security Council Grigoryan even said that if Baku agreed with this Armenian version, it could have been signed even before the end of last year. Clearly, this is a demonstration of dilettantism and inexperience on Grigoryan's part. Who ever heard that the side, which lost the war, whose behavior and claims are contrary to international law, dictate their terms of peace?" Musabekov said.

It is clear that the parties will have to work hard to come up with a mutually acceptable text, he said.

"I believe that the Americans and the EU will have to sober Armenians, to explain the realities in the region and, most importantly, on 'the ground'. Otherwise, the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan will do it. Prominent analysts in Europe and the US warn that in the absence of a peace treaty, there is a high risk of a new, albeit short-lived, but bloody Armenian-Azerbaijani war. No one wants that. There is enough death and destruction. Yerevan must have realized by now that neither the patronage of France, nor the media hype is able to force Baku to retreat from its principled position both on the complete withdrawal of the remnants of the Armenian armed forces from Karabakh, and in the context of the Lachin and Zangazur transport corridors. If Yerevan prefers to wait for a favorable chance from regional patrons such as Russia and Iran, it is in vain. I believe that Moscow and Tehran will have no time for Armenian 'aspirations' in 2023. So the loss of time will only worsen the terms of the peace agreement and the resolution of the remaining contentious issues for Armenians," the political analyst summed up.