Europe without the American security umbrella Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares has called on the European Union to create its own permanent army in order to reduce its defence dependence on the United States.

Albares emphasised that European countries must be prepared for the possibility that states such as Russia could “test” Washington’s willingness to come to the continent’s aid. The minister insisted that an independent European defence would not undermine the foundations of NATO.

“The magic of NATO is that you are in NATO and nothing happens because no one dares to try to check if Article 5 really works or not,” Albares explained.

“That’s what we have to recreate – the deterrence. That if you want to mess with me, go somewhere else. Because we will stand together,” the foreign minister added.

Despite his firm stance, Albares stressed the importance of cooperation, while urging caution in light of the changing priorities of a key partner.

“We really believe in transatlantic relations. For me, the United States is the historical natural ally of Europeans. We need both Europeans and Americans on board. And we have to accept that the Trump administration has a new vision and new ideas about transatlantic relations,” he concluded.

How prepared is the European Union today to take such steps to ensure its own defence security independently? Are the funds currently allocated by European countries for military needs sufficient? Is the EU capable, in the foreseeable future, of carrying out a large-scale rearmament of member states’ armies, replenishing their missing capabilities, and increasing the number of professional military personnel?

Achieving this goal would require expanding the defence industry and boosting its production capacity. But do the European elites possess the necessary potential and political will to accomplish this?

Well-known Western experts shared their assessments on this issue with Caliber.Az.

Polish analyst Roman Bäcker, a professor at the Faculty of Political Science and International Studies at Nicolaus Copernicus University, stated that the creation of a unified army of the European Union is impossible in the near future.

“There is no need for it either. Many countries are seriously concerned about the expansion of the European Union’s powers at the expense of member states. At present, this concerns Slovakia, Romania, and Slovenia, as well as many other countries where Eurosceptic parties wield significant influence. Therefore, the transition from national armies to a European army — which would effectively mean the creation of a European state — requiring the unanimous consent of all member states, is impossible.

Article 5 of the NATO charter applies to all member states, including the United States. American troops are stationed in many European countries. For any U.S. president, even Donald Trump, refusing to assist European NATO member states under attack would cost far more than providing such assistance. For European countries, such a scenario is unthinkable. From the experience of the Second World War, they know that otherwise they would become the next isolated victims of aggression,” the professor noted.

According to Bäcker, European countries are simultaneously implementing measures aimed at increasing the reliability and effectiveness of collective defence.

“These include multinational divisions and the deployment of multinational military units in countries bordering Russia. Of particular importance is the SAFE program, which significantly increases European defence spending by making use of the capabilities of European industry.

For many years, the European Union has addressed its problems through dialogue and compromise, avoiding difficult and large-scale structural changes,” Bäcker recalled.

Head of the International Order and Democracy program at the German Council on Foreign Relations, Dr. Stefan Meister, believes that this is undoubtedly the next step toward achieving independence from the United States in matters of European security.

“This is a realistic assessment: no matter who becomes U.S. president in the future, at some point their attention will shift toward the Asia-Pacific region rather than Europe. Europeans must finally take responsibility for their own security, and this will happen in the coming years. There is no longer any trust in the United States.

The European Union has created the SAFE defence investment fund, while Germany and Poland are the largest investors in European defence. The defence industry is increasing production volumes, and European countries will cooperate more and more actively with Ukraine in the production of drones and other military equipment. The Ukrainian army must be integrated into the European system, which will strengthen Europe’s deterrence potential against Russia,” the expert stated.

According to Stefan Meister, all of this will take time: the defence industry cannot be rebuilt within one or two years, and the process will require approximately five to six years.

“The size of the armed forces also cannot be increased in a short period of time, which is why many European countries, including Germany, will have to reintroduce conscription in the coming years. A fundamental shift is taking place in European security and defence policy.

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are forcing Europe to act more quickly, but these changes must happen in the near future, and Germany together with frontline states bordering Russia and Ukraine are already working on them. Even Spain is now discussing changes to European defence and security policy,” Meister emphasised.